【作者】 吴曦；

【导师】 顾婧；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 金融， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 自我国证券市场发展以来,相关监管部门对上市公司的信息披露问题就十分重视,包含盈利预测披露制度在内的前瞻性信息披露制度同样受到关注。目前,我国盈利预测披露制度日趋完善,相关部门制定了强制披露和自愿披露相结合的披露制度。对于一家企业而言,披露盈利预测数据不仅能够影响企业自身的经营发展,还能够对其上下游企业产生影响,因为企业可以通过披露盈利预测向外界传递关于企业经营发展的信息,从而向上下游企业提示机会或风险,对上下游企业的现金管理等经营决策产生影响,在一定程度上影响上下游企业的投资效率。并且,由于供应链中信息不对称的存在,企业主动披露盈利预测缓解信息不对称问题对提高上下游企业的现金管理水平及投资效率就显得更为重要。基于此,本文以2005-2021年供应商和客户均为A股上市的企业作为研究对象,从供应链的视角出发,以客户盈利预测为切入点,研究主要客户盈利预测披露对供应商投资效率的影响及其影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)主要客户披露盈利预测信息对供应商的投资效率具有正向促进作用,即主要客户披露盈利预测信息有利于供应商提高投资效率;(2)供应商的议价能力越强、供应商和客户的地理距离越远时,越能够加强主要客户披露盈利预测信息对提高供应商投资效率的正向效应;(3)供应商的现金持有水平在主要客户盈利预测披露对供应商投资效率的影响中发挥中介效应,即主要客户的盈利预测披露会减少供应商的现金持有水平,进而提高供应商的投资效率。此外,本文还进行了异质性分析和稳健性检验,认为供应商所处的环境不确定性不同、主要客户的产权性质不同,都会导致主要客户盈利预测披露对供应商投资效率的影响程度差异。最后,本文基于前文的研究分析,从不同的角度出发提出了政策建议。区别于以往文献主要研究企业盈利预测披露对自身投资效率的影响,本文将研究视角拓宽至供应链层面,探究了下游客户盈利预测披露对上游供应商投资效率的影响,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。从理论意义来看,首先,本文有助于丰富盈利预测披露对投资效率影响的实证研究;其次,本文有助于探索客户盈利预测信息披露对供应商投资效率的调节因素和影响机制。从现实意义来看,首先,对于供应商而言,本文的研究有助于供应商拓宽决策考量因素的范围,从利益相关者的信息披露角度出发探究提升投资效率的途径,对其改善投资效率具有重要意义;其次,对于客户而言,本文的研究为客户的信息披露制度提供了决策依据;最后,对于监管者而言,本文的研究在一定程度上能够为监管者制定上市公司信息披露制度提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the development of Chinese securities market,the relevant regulatory authorities attach great importance to the information disclosure of listed companies,and the forward-looking information disclosure system including the profit forecast disclosure system also attracts attention.At present,the disclosure system of profit forecast is becoming more and more perfect,and relevant departments have formulated the disclosure system of compulsory disclosure and voluntary disclosure.For an enterprise,the disclosure of earnings forecast can not only affect its own operation and development,but also influence its upstream and downstream enterprises,because an enterprise can convey information about its operation and development to the outside world through the disclosure of its profit forecast,thus indicating opportunities or risks to upstream and downstream enterprises and influencing their cash management and other business decisions.To some extent,it affects the investment efficiency of upstream and downstream enterprises.Moreover,due to the existence of information asymmetry in the supply chain,it is more important for enterprises to proactively disclose profit forecast to alleviate the problem of information asymmetry to improve the cash management level and investment efficiency of upstream and downstream enterprises.Based on this,this paper selects the listed enterprises with both suppliers and customers from 2005 to 2021 as the research object.From the perspective of supply chain,with customer profit forecast as the entry point,this paper studies the influence of major customer profit forecast disclosure on supplier investment efficiency and its influence mechanism.The research shows that:(1)The disclosure of profit forecast information by major customers has a positive effect on the investment efficiency of suppliers,the disclosure of profit forecast information by major customers is conducive to improving the investment efficiency of suppliers;(2)The stronger the bargaining power of suppliers and the farther geographical distance between suppliers and customers,the more positive effect of major customers’ disclosure of earnings forecast information on improving supplier investment efficiency can be strengthened;(3)The cash holding level of suppliers plays an intermediary role in the influence of the disclosure of major customers’ earnings forecast on the investment efficiency of suppliers,the disclosure of major customers’ earnings forecast will reduce the cash holding level of suppliers and thus improve the investment efficiency of suppliers.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis and robustness test are also carried out.This paper argues that different environmental uncertainties of suppliers and different property rights of major customers will lead to different degrees of influence of major customers’ earnings forecast disclosure on suppliers’ investment efficiency.Finally,according to the research,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from different perspectives.Different from the previous literature,which mainly studied the influence of the disclosure of corporate earnings forecast on its own investment efficiency,this paper extends the research perspective to the supply chain level and explores the influence of the disclosure of downstream customers’ earnings forecast on the investment efficiency of upstream suppliers,which has important theoretical and practical significance.In a theoretical sense,firstly,this paper helps to enrich the empirical research on the impact of earnings forecast disclosure on investment efficiency;secondly,this paper is helpful to explore the regulatory factors and influencing mechanism of customer profit forecast information disclosure on supplier investment efficiency.In a practical sense,firstly,for suppliers,the study in this paper helps them to broaden the scope of decision-making factors and explore ways to improve investment efficiency from the perspective of stakeholders’ information disclosure,which is of great significance to their improvement of investment efficiency;secondly,for customers,the research of this paper provides decision-making basis for customers’ information disclosure system;finally,for regulators,the research in this paper can provide a basis for regulators to formulate the information disclosure system of listed companies to some extent.更多还原