【作者】 李文；

【导师】 胡浩；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 老龄化社会背景下养老问题受到社会各界极大关注,在人们养老观念革新和经济交通条件改善的双重驱动下,异地养老这一新兴养老模式顺势而生并迅速流行。作为民生要计,异地养老受到政府和学界的广泛关注,2022年10月,党的二十大报告明确强调了“实施积极应对人口老龄化战略”、“发展养老事业和产业”的重要性,重视异地养老群体的行为决策和流动模式成为我国人口老龄化问题应对和老龄工作顶层设计的重要内容之一。社会学学者较早关注到我国异地养老问题,并对异地养老群体属性特征、社会融入情况及异地养老的驱动因素等方面进行了大量有意义的探讨。然而,异地养老的本质是经济状况良好的老年群体为更好满足精神需求和物质需求而进行的时空位移结果,因此,它也是一个地理学问题,亟需丰富地理学相关研究。深入探讨我国异地养老群体流动的空间规律与驱动机理是当前中国“多元养老模式探索”和“老年友好型社会的建设”的必然选择。基于此,本研究基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,以城市为分析单元,聚焦异地养老群体这一特殊流动群体,遵循“理论—格局—机理”层层递进的研究思路,通过梳理异地养老相关研究进展和理论,构建异地养老群体流动的理论分析框架,利用空间分析技术、空间计量模型和QAP回归分析模型从多空间尺度、多城市等级和多群体类型视角刻画异地养老群体空间分布格局及流动网络结构,综合城市外部结构主义关系视角和个体微观视角探讨中国异地养老群体流动的影响机理,主要结论如下:(1)中国异地养老群体来源地与目的地分布格局差异显著。其一,从多尺度空间视角,地区和省域尺度,黑吉辽东北三省是异地养老群体的主要来源地,华北地区是异地养老群体的主要流入地;城市尺度,净流入城市主要以直辖市、省会城市和副省级城市为主,净流出城市集中在其他普通地级行政区,异地养老群体分布存在明显的“虹吸效应”,净流入城市周围多分布净流出城市。其二,从多等级城市视角,不同等级城市之间流入均量差异明显大于流出均量差异,高等级城市的流入均量以绝对的优势领先于低等级城市,而高等级城市的流出均量与低等级城市相当,仅以略微的优势领先于低等级城市;异地养老群体流入与流出总量空间分布差异显著:高等级城市流入总量多,流出总量少,低等级城市相反;不同等级城市流出总量排名与均量排名相反,低等级城市流出总量虽多但流出均量少,高等级城市虽流出总量少但流出均量多。其三,从多类型群体视角,个人型和家庭型异地养老群体的流入目的地在空间分布上大致呈互补格局,个人型异地养老群体主要流向东北、西北、西南地区,而家庭型异地养老群体则主要流向华北和华东地区。(2)中国异地养老群体空间流动网络不均衡性显著,异地养老群体流动网络有明显的“小世界”集聚特征和“无标度”差异特征。网络集聚系数大于同等规模随机网络,平均路径长度小于同等规模随机网络,“小世界网络”特征发育显著;异地养老群体流动具有来源城市的广泛性和目的城市的集中性,城市出、入度中心性差异大,符合位序—累积规模分布规律,呈典型的“无标度”分布特征。此外,家庭型异地养老群体的网络集聚性和差异性更加显著,相较于个人型异地养老群体,家庭型异地养老群体来源城市更加广泛、流入城市更加集中。(3)中国异地养老群体流动模式具有明显的空间尺度依赖性,且不同群体类型的空间流动模式不同。其一,随空间尺度缩小,中国异地养老群体流动模式愈加复杂。地区尺度,东北地区异地养老群体以本地区内部流动为主,而华中地区的异地养老群体则以跨区流动为主,主要流向华东和华北地区;省域尺度,来自西藏、宁夏、青海、广东、海南、新疆的异地养老群体以省内流动为主,省内流量占比超80%,而来自河北、河南、山东、陕西、湖南的异地养老群体以跨省流动为主,跨省流量占比超80%;城市尺度,“高行政级别城市导向”的空间流动模式显著,异地养老群体的前十位流入城市均为直辖市、副省级城市,北京、上海的双核心位置突出。其二,不同空间尺度下中国异地养老群体流动空间格局存在差异。省内流动型,“省会城市导向”的流动特征显著;区内省际流动型,以“上海、北京、大连、重庆、乌鲁木齐”为核心,呈现“多源五向”的空间流动格局;跨区流动型,“由东至西,由北向南”的流动特征明显。最后,不同类型异地养老群体流动模式相异,“高行政级别城市导向”的流动模式在家庭型群体中更加突出,“候鸟南飞”的流动模式在个人型群体中更加明显。(4)中国异地养老群体来源地与目的地空间分布格局的影响因素并不相同,其空间流动受城市客观和个体主观因素的共同驱动。异地养老群体空间分布的影响因素分析结果表明,来源地寒冷的气候和低生活质量是异地养老的显著推力因素,影响老人的流出空间格局;目的地的高的医疗水平和好城市文化氛围是异地养老的显著拉力因素,影响老人的流入空间格局。在异地养老群体空间流动的驱动因素上,来源地和目的地在自然、文化、经济环境上的相似性和在公共服务、制度环境上的差异性对其流动有明显驱动,与西方以温暖的气候环境和低生活成本而异地养老的老人不同,我国异地养老群体更看重城市文化环境和公共服务环境;目的地广泛的社会关系对异地养老群体流动有明显正向影响,而异地养老群体家庭与流入地户籍家庭之间较大的经济差距对其异地养老行为有阻碍作用。不同类型的异地养老群体的驱动因素表现出自身独特性质,异域文化和暖冬气候仅对个人型群体表现出明显吸引力,而家庭型异地养老群体更加关注来源地与目的地的医疗服务水平差异;流入地广泛的社会关系对家庭型异地养老群体流动有明显的驱动作用,而个人型异地养老群体对经济基础的要求更高,优越的家庭经济条件能更好地驱动其异地养老行为。更多还原

【Abstract】 The issue of elderly care in an aging society has received great attention from all walks of life.Driven by the upgrading of people’s concept of the lifestyle of old age and the improvement of economic and transportation conditions,the new model of off-site retirement has emerged and become rapidly popular.In October 2022,the 20 th National Congress report clearly emphasized the importance of "implementing a state strategy in active response to population aging" and "developing pension services and industry".The behavioral decisions and mobility patterns of the elderly group have become one of the important elements of the top-level design of China’s population aging problem.Sociological scholars have paid early attention to the issue of offsite eldercare in China and have conducted a lot of meaningful discussions on the characteristics,social integration of the offsite eldercare groups,and the drivers of their relocation.However,the essence of offsite eldercare is the result of spatial and temporal displacement of economically well-off elderly groups to better satisfy their spiritual and material needs;therefore,it is also a geographic issue that urgently needs to be enriched with geographic related research.In-depth exploration of the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of the offsite eldercare groups in China is an inevitable choice for the current "exploration of multiple aging models" and "construction of an age-friendly society".this study focus on the offsite eldercare group,a special and vital component of elderly migration,Therefore,this study based on the data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017,takes cities as the unit of analysis,focus on the offsite eldercare group,a special and vital component of elderly migration,follows the research idea of "theory-pattern-mechanism",and constructs a theoretical analysis framework of the mobility of the offsite eldercare group by sorting out the related research.We use spatial analysis techniques,spatial econometric models and QAP regression analysis models to portray the spatial distribution pattern and mobility network structure of the heterogeneous retirement group from the perspective of multiple spatial scales,multiple city levels and dual group types,and to explore the influencing mechanism of the mobility of the offsite eldercare group in China from the perspective of external urban structuralist relationships and individual microscopic perspectives,with the following main findings:(1)There are significant differences in the distribution patterns between the origin and the destination of the offsite eldercare group in China.First,from a multi-scale spatial perspective,at the regional and provincial scales,the three northeastern provinces of Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning are the main source of the offsite eldercare group,and northern China is the main inflow of the offsite eldercare group;at the city scale,the net inflow cities are mainly municipalities,provincial capitals and sub-provincial cities,the net outflow cities are concentrated in other ordinary prefecture-level administrative regions,and there is an obvious "siphon effect" in the distribution of the foreign offsite eldercare group,with the net inflow cities are surrounded by more net outflow cities.Second,from the perspective of multi-level cities,the difference in the average inflow volume between different grade cities is significantly larger than the average outflow volume,with the average inflow volume of high-level cities leading low-level cities by an absolute margin,while the average outflow volume of high-level cities is comparable to that of low-level cities,with only a slight advantage over low-level cities;the spatial distribution of the total inflow and outflow of foreign pensioners varies significantly: high-level cities have more total inflow.The spatial distribution of the total inflow and outflow of the foreign pensioners differs significantly: high-level cities have more total inflow and less total outflow,while low-level cities have the opposite;the ranking of the total outflow and the ranking of the average amount of outflow in different cities is opposite,with low-level cities having more total outflow but less average outflow,while high-level cities have less total outflow but more average outflow.Thirdly,from the perspective of dual types of groups,the spatial distribution of the inflow destinations of individual and family-oriented offsite eldercare groups is roughly complementary,with individual-oriented group mainly flowing to the northeast,northwest and southwest regions,while family-oriented group mainly flow to northern and eastern China.(2)The unevenness of the spatial mobility network of China’s offsite eldercare group is significant,with obvious "small-world" clustering characteristics and "scale-free" difference characteristics.The network agglomeration coefficient is larger than that of the same size random network,and the average path length is smaller than that of the same size random network.The development of "small-world network" is significant;the mobility of offsite eldercare group has a wide range of cities of origin and concentration of cities of destination,with large differences in the centrality of outdegree and indegree,which is in line with the law of rank-order-cumulative scale distribution and has typical "scale-free" distribution characteristics.In addition,the network agglomeration and variation of the family-oriented group is more significant.Compared with the individual-oriented group,the origin of the family-oriented group is more extensive and the inflow city is more concentrated.(3)The mobility patterns of the Chinese offsite eldercare group have obvious spatial scale dependence,and the spatial mobility patterns of different group types are different.Firstly,the mobility pattern of Chinese offsite eldercare group becomes more complex as the spatial scale shrinks.At the regional scale,northeast Chinese offsite eldercare group mainly flow within the region,while those from central China mainly flow across regions,mainly to east and north China;at the provincial scale,offsite eldercare group from Tibet,Ningxia,Qinghai,Guangdong,Hainan,and Xinjiang mainly flow within the province,with the provincial flow accounting for more than80%,while those from Hebei,Henan,Shandong,Shaanxi,Hunan At the city scale,the spatial flow pattern of "high administrative level city-oriented" is significant,and the top ten cities of offsite eldercare group are all municipalities and sub-provincial cities,with Beijing and Shanghai in a prominent double core position.Secondly,the spatial flow pattern of offsite eldercare group has obvious scale effect: the intra-provincial flow type,"provincial capital city-oriented" flow characteristics are significant;intra-provincial flow type,the spatial flow pattern of "multiple sources and five directions" is presented with "Shanghai,Beijing,Dalian,Chongqing and Urumqi" as the core;inter-regional flow type,"from east to west,from north to south" flow characteristics are obvious.Finally,the mobility patterns of different types of offsite eldercare groups are different,with the "high administrative level city-oriented" mobility pattern being more prominent among family-oriented groups and the "migratory birds flying south" mobility pattern being more obvious among individual-oriented groups.(4)The influencing factors of the spatial distribution patterns of the source and destination of the offsite eldercare group in China are not the same,and their spatial mobility is driven by both objective urban and individual subjective factors.The results of the analysis of the influencing factors of the spatial distribution of the offsite eldercare group show that the cold climate and low quality of life in the source place are significant push factors for their mobility and affect the outflow spatial pattern of the elderly;the high medical level and good urban cultural atmosphere in the destination place are significant pull factors for their mobility and affect the inflow spatial pattern of the elderly.In terms of the driving factors of spatial mobility of the offsite eldercare group,the similarity between the origin and the destination city in natural,cultural and economic environment,and the heterogeneity in public services and institutional environment has obvious driving forces for their mobility.Unlike the offsite eldercare group in the West,who moves for warm climate and low cost of living,the Chinese offsite eldercare group values urban cultural environment and public service environment more.Extensive social ties at the destination have a significant positive effect on the mobility of the offsite eldercare,while the large economic gap between the families of the offsite eldercare group and the household registration families in the inflow area has a hindering effect on their mobility.The driving factors of different types of offsite eldercare groups show their own unique nature;exotic culture and warm winter climate only show obvious attraction to individual-oriented groups,while family-oriented groups pay more attention to the difference in the level of medical services between the origin and destination;extensive social relations in the inflowing place have obvious driving effects on the mobility of family-oriented groups,while individual-oriented groups have a higher demand for economic situation,the superior family economic conditions can better drive their mobility.更多还原