【作者】 李鹏；

【导师】 李玉民；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 工程管理（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 当前,我国正处于实现“双碳”目标的关键时期。为了促进我国新能源汽车的推广应用,以绿色城市配送城市创建工作为典型代表,各地积极出台系列政策措施推动纯电城市配送车辆推广使用。但是,目前推广纯电城市配送车辆的相关政策实施效果差异较大。如何实现对不同政策措施在不同城市、不同地区实施效果差异的量化分析及模拟评估,这是本文研究的主要问题。本文梳理了国家及地方新能源汽车产业政策,构建了成本差异比率模型,比较了燃油、纯电城市配送车辆在不同城市、不同地区的成本差异,量化分析了不同政策措施在不同城市、不同地区实施效果的差异。主要研究工作包括:(1)分析新能源汽车行业政策体系。梳理国家及地方层面产业政策实施情况,以及新能源物流车推广系列政策。(2)建立车辆使用者成本数据库。以大数据抓取等方式,建立了全国369个城市纯电车辆使用者成本的数据库,采集了不同城市气温、行车里程等10万条以上的数据信息。(3)构建成本差异比率模型。基于全生命周期成本理论,创新提出成本差异比率模型,结合成本数据,比较分析了全国369个城市燃油城市配送车辆、纯电城市配送车辆使用者成本,量化分析不同城市纯电城市配送车辆成本差异。(4)开展政策效果模拟分析。运用地理信息系统(Arc GIS)等分析工具,量化模拟评估了提高碳税、降低电价、燃油城市配送车辆限行、车辆购置补贴等政策措施在不同城市实施效果的差异。研究发现,目前燃油城市配送车辆在购置成本上具有优势,纯电城市配送车辆在运营成本上具有优势。以胡焕庸线为界,我国东北、西北、西藏等地区燃油城市配送车辆具有成本优势,北京、上海、广州等东南部低海拔经济发达地区纯电城市配送车辆具有成本优势。提高燃油车油价、降低纯电车辆充电价格、加强燃油城市配送车辆限行、发放新能源车辆购置补贴等政策的实施效果存在明显地域性差异。本文所揭示的纯电城市配送车辆在不同城市的成本差异和政策推广效果差异特征,将为推动全国各城市精准施策提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is in a critical period to achieve the goal of"double carbon".All localities actively introduce policies to promote the promotion and use of pure electric logistics vehicles,but the current local policies have a certain blindness.In economic research and policy design,the cost of vehicle users in different cities is difficult to obtain,and the difference in the implementation effect of different policy measures in different cities is difficult to evaluate,which is the main problem studied in this paper.In this paper,the big data collection method establishes the relevant database of major cities in China,constructs the cost difference rate model,compares the cost difference of fuel vehicles and pure electric new energy vehicles in different cities,and quantitatively analyzes the difference in the implementation effect of different policies and measures in different cities.Main research efforts include:(1)Analysis of the promotion of new energy logistics vehicles.Combing the implementation of industrial policies at the national and local levels,starting with the development status of the new energy logistics vehicle promotion market,analyzing the main influencing factors of the promotion of the new energy logistics vehicle market,and combining with relevant research at home and abroad to form the full text research ideas.(2)Establish the vehicle user cost database.By means of big data capture,a database of user costs of pure electric vehicles in 369 cities nationwide was established,and more than 100,000 data information of temperature and driving mileage in different cities was collected.(3)Construct a cost difference rate model.Based on the whole life cycle cost theory,the use cost of fuel vehicles and pure electric new energy vehicles is systematically analyzed,and the cost difference rate model is innovatively proposed.This paper compares the whole life cycle use cost of pure electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in 369 cities,and quantitatively analyzes the cost difference between the two types of vehicles in each city.(4)Carry out the simulation evaluation of policy effect,and quantitatively evaluate the difference of increasing carbon tax,reducing the price of electricity,fuel vehicle restrictions,vehicle purchase subsidy in different cities.This paper finds that the traditional fuel logistics vehicles have advantages in purchase cost,and pure electric logistics vehicles have advantages in operating cost.With Hu Huanyong line as the boundary,fuel logistics vehicles in northeast,northwest,Tibet,Xinjiang and other economically underdeveloped regions have certain cost advantages,while pure electric logistics vehicles in economically developed areas such as Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou have certain cost advantages.The implementation effect of policies such as raising the oil price of fuel vehicles(carbon tax),reducing the charging price of pure electric vehicles,strengthening the restriction of fuel vehicles,and issuing the purchase subsidies of new energy vehicles is decreasing successively,and there are obvious regional differences.The characteristics of vehicle cost difference and policy effect of logistics distribution vehicles in different cities revealed in this paper will provide reference for promoting the precise implementation of policies in cities across the country.更多还原