【作者】 林晟；

【导师】 王志强；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 工商管理（MBA）（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 为进一步解决《巴黎协定》实施细则的历史遗留问题,近年来各国一直致力于围绕其实施规则进行谈判,并依据谈判结果相继提出“碳中和”目标。2020年以来,我国政府陆续出台关于碳达峰工作的方案及工作意见,“碳达峰-碳中和,30-60”的双碳目标被一再强调,这说明“碳达峰-碳中和”已上升到国家战略层面。“双碳目标”的提出必将加快推动新能源汽车的跨越式发展,进而带动动力电池高速发展,为动力电池行业发展带来了新机遇。在碳达峰、碳中和政策推出之后的第一年,在2021年我国新能源车产销规模继续蝉联全球第一,同比增长逾150%。对于证券市场的投资者而言,需要评估这些变化对行业景气度及企业价值的影响。本文首先梳理目前证券市场上主流的估值方法,对几种估值方法进行对比分析,根据国轩高科企业自身股利波动较大的特点以及行业目前处于高速发展期的特征,选取剩余收益估值模型,并结合杜邦分析体系完善该模型,以期提高企业估值的准确性。文章结合“30-60碳达峰、碳中和”的规划,测算2022年-2030年长期的动力电池市场空间,提出动力电池行业的二阶段发展之路,运用经营剩余收益模型预测国轩高科对应的估值为480.55亿元,对于每股为28.87元,认为当前市场略微高估了企业的价值。敏感性分析发现国轩高科股权价值主要受到成本控制以及资产周转效率的影响。因此对于投资者而言,在进行企业股权价值评估时,仍需重视产业政策的影响、分析企业经营管理能力,提高对核心财务数据预测的准确性,为后续的投资工作提供帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to resolve the historical issues of the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement,many countries have been engaged in negotiations on the detail of implementation rules in recent years,and put forward the goal of "carbon neutrality"based on the result of negotiations.Since 2020,The Chinese government has successively issued plans and guidelines on emission peak.The goal of "emission peak-carbon neutral,30-60" has been repeatedly mentioned,marking that "emission peak-carbon neutral" has become a national strategy.These will accelerate the development of new energy vehicles industry and will also step into the development of the energy power batteries the highway,which brings new opportunities for the energy power batteries industry.In the first year after the "carbon neutrality" policy,in 2021,China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to be the world’s first,with a growth of more than 150%.As investor in the securities market,it is necessary to evaluate the impact of these changes on prosperity index and enterprise value.This paper first sorts out the current mainstream valuation method of securities market,and analyzes and compares of several valuation methods.Then according to characteristic of the high speed development of industry and high-fluctuation of enterprise dividend policy,choose the residual income valuation model and using the DuPont analysis system to optimize the model.It’s more reasonable in the value assament process by introduction of the operating residual income model.At the same time,combined with the guidelines of"emission peak-carbon neutral,30-60",make a prediction of the long-term power batteries from 2021 to 2030,and put forward the two-stage development path of energy power batteries industry.Using the operating residual income model to predict the value of Gotion is 48.05 billion,that is 28.87 for each share.It’s slightly overvalued to the market value.At last,through sensitivity analysis,this paper concludes that the value of Gotion is mainly affected by cost control and the efficiency of asset turnover.Therefore,investors still need to pay attention to the influence of industrial policies,analyze the operation and management capabilities of enterprises,improve the accuracy of core financial data forecasting when evaluating the value of enterprises,which will help investors to make descion.更多还原