【作者】 雷鹏；

【导师】 孙元元；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 区域经济学， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 2008年“京津城际铁路”开通,标志着中国第一条高速铁路建成,也拉开了我国高铁时代的序幕。截至2020年底,中国高铁已经突破3.8万公里的营运里程数,占全世界高铁营运里程合计数的2/3以上,已经成为中国经济快速发展的新名片。目前,中国已基本完成了“八横八纵”的高铁网络建设。日益完善的高铁网络较好地提升了各个地区之间的可达性,也使得不同高铁沿线各个地区之间的时间成本大大降低,相比于高速公路等设施,高铁开通进一步减少了各个区域之间的交流合作成本,提高了高铁沿线地区的跨域合作交流机会与频率,这对于促进不同地区间的协同增长意义重大。自2015年开始,中国政府就开始重视“全要素生产率”在驱动经济增长方面的作用,尤其是在人口老龄化的今天,人口红利的消失使得政府应当将经济发展的着力点放在提升全要素生产率上。由于高铁带来的时空压缩正深刻地改变着中国的经济格局,而生产率提升又是经济可持续增长的主要途径,因此本文将高铁开通作为一项准自然实验,利用双重差分模型,对高铁开通和地区制造业生产率空间格局变化之间的因果关联进行深入分析。本文选取县(区)层面制造业整体的生产率水平作为研究对象,如此既与新经济地理以及新新经济地理模型更加契合,还可以处理企业多维异质性导致的企业层面生产率分布与地区层面生产率之间不匹配的问题,同时也可以尽可能缓解内生性问题以及样本选择偏差问题,并且结合多种稳健性检验方法,从集聚效应和选择效应的角度出发,从而能够更加准确的判断高铁对沿线地区生产率的影响及作用机制。本文的结论表明:高铁开通导致沿线地区制造业生产率整体表现出下降的趋势,原因在于高铁开通会促使沿线地区的制造业生产率日益分化,而非共同增长,高铁主要是有利于沿线制造业规模较大地区生产率水平的提升;高铁开通促使沿线地区制造业生产率产生日益分化的内在机制主要源自集聚效应。本文的结论意味着,高铁可能会通过分化地区生产率,进而致使区域经济增长长期失衡,因此各级政府应当注意防止高铁沿线中心城市和外围城市之间经济社会发展差距的持续扩大。更多还原

【Abstract】 The opening of the "Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway" in 2008 marked the completion of China’s first high-speed railway and also opened the prelude to my country’s high-speed railway era.By the end of 2020,China’s high-speed rail has exceeded 38,000 kilometers of operating mileage,accounting for more than two-thirds of the total operating mileage of high-speed rail in the world,and has become a new business card for China’s rapid economic development.At present,China’s high-speed rail network has basically formed an "eight horizontal and eight vertical" high-speed rail network pattern in China.The increasingly perfect high-speed rail network has improved the accessibility between various regions,and has also greatly reduced the time cost between different regions along different high-speed rail lines.The exchange and cooperation costs between different regions have increased the opportunities and frequency of cross-domain cooperation and exchanges in the regions along the highspeed rail line,which is of great significance for promoting the synergistic growth between different regions.Since 2015,the Chinese government has begun to pay attention to the role of "total factor productivity" in self-driven economic growth,especially in today’s ageing population,the disappearance of the demographic dividend makes the government should focus on improving the total factor of economic development.on productivity.As the space-time compression brought by high-speed rail is profoundly changing China’s economic structure,and the productivity improvement is the main way for sustainable economic growth.Therefore,this article takes the opening of high-speed rail as a quasi-natural experiment,based on the DID method,to analyze the causal correlation between the opening of high-speed rail and the divergence of manufacturing productivity along the line.This article selects the overall productivity at the county level as research object.This can not only deal with the mismatch between the enterprise productivity distribution and the regional productivity caused by the multidimensional heterogeneity of enterprises,but also alleviate the problem of the endogenous and sample selection bias as much as possible.At the same time,combining a variety of robustness testing methods,from the perspective of agglomeration effect and selection effect.It can be more accurately judged whether there is a divergence effect of high-speed rail on the manufacturing TFP along the line.Conclusions of this article indicate that the opening of the high-speed rail leads to the overall downward trend of manufacturing productivity in the areas along the route.The reason is that the opening of the high-speed rail will promote the increasing differentiation of manufacturing productivity in the areas along the route,rather than a common growth.The increase in productivity in large regions;the opening of highspeed railways has led to the increasing differentiation of manufacturing productivity in the regions along the route.The internal mechanism is mainly due to the agglomeration effect.The conclusion of this paper implies that HSR may lead to longterm imbalance in regional economic growth through differentiation of regional productivity.Therefore,governments at all levels should pay attention to preventing the continuous widening of the economic and social development gap between central cities and peripheral cities along HSR lines.更多还原