【作者】 周琳；

【导师】 夏路；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 国际政治， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 作为二战以后首次在德国范围内获得成功并进入德国联邦议院的新兴民粹主义政党,德国选择党的崛起震惊德国政坛。研究德国选择党的崛起原因有利于我们防范民粹主义带来的分裂倾向及政治不确定性。本文利用社会裂痕概念,建构起政治社会裂痕、经济社会裂痕和族群社会裂痕,分析这三个维度下的社会裂痕对德国选择党崛起进程的影响。研究发现,不同维度的社会裂痕相互交织,共同影响了德国选择党的崛起进程。在德国选择党进入德国议院前,政治社会裂痕和族群社会裂痕是其最主要的影响因素。难民危机爆发使德国族群社会裂痕和政治社会裂痕高度凸显,这一阶段的德国选择党发展迅猛。在德国选择党进入议院后,政治社会裂痕和经济社会裂痕是其最主要的影响因素。新冠疫情爆发使德国经济社会裂痕、政治社会裂痕加剧,德国选择党再次稳固自身的反对党地位。这一发现揭示了德国选择党未来发展的风险:若德国主流政党能较好地应对社会裂痕而德国选择党继续推行现有政策,则其未来政治影响力会有所受限,反之则不然。此外,不同维度的社会裂痕对德国选择党崛起的影响程度不同。政治社会裂痕对德国选择党的崛起影响最大,在难民危机、新冠疫情危机爆发时帮助德国选择党找到政治话语表达空间。经济社会裂痕在新冠疫情时期影响最大,族群社会裂痕则是在难民危机达到了顶峰。这提示我们:作为典型的反建制政党,德国选择党只要能较好利用政治社会裂痕,就可以在国家政党格局中找到一定的政治空间,但其发展上限取决于该政党能够代表社会中未被代表的弱势群体的数量,即经济社会裂痕和族群社会裂痕。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a populist emerging party that has achieved success in Germany and entered the German Parliament for the first time since World War II,the Alternative for Germany(AfD)has shocked the German political arena.Researching the reasons for the rise of the AfD will help us prevent the divisive tendency and political uncertainty brought about by populism.This study uses the concept of social cleavages to construct political-social cleavage,economic-social cleavage and ethnic-social cleavage,and analyzes the impact of these three dimensions of social cleavages on the rise of the AfD.The study finds that three different dimensions of social cleavages were intertwined and jointly affected the rise of the AfD.Before the AfD entered the parliament,political-social cleavage and ethnic-social cleavage were the main influencing factors.The outbreak of the refugee crisis made the political-social cleavage and ethnic-social cleavage in Germany highly prominent,and the AfD developed rapidly at this stage.After the AfD entered the parliament,political-social cleavage and economic-social cleavage were the main influencing factors.The outbreak of the COVID-19 has exacerbated the economic-social cleavage and political-social cleavage in Germany,and the AfD has once again consolidated its position as an opposition party.This finding suggests the risks of the future development of the AfD:if the mainstream political parties in Germany can better deal with the social cleavages and the AfD continues to implement its existing policies,its future political influence will be limited.However,If the AfD can adjust its policy agenda in a timely manner in response to social cleavages,the AfD’s influence will grow day by day.In addition,social cleavages of different dimensions had different influences on the rise of the AfD.Political-social cleavage had the greatest impact on the AfD,helping the AfD to find a political discourse expression under the refugee crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis;economic-social cleavage had its greatest impact during the COVID-19 crisis,and ethnic-social cleavage peaked during the refugee crisis.This reminds us that as a typical anti-establishment party,the AfD can find a certain political space in the country’s political party structure as long as it can make better use of the political-social cleavage.However,the upper limit of the development of the AfD depends on the number of underrepresented and disadvantaged groups in society that the party can represent,which can be divided by economic-social cleavage and ethnic-social cleavage.更多还原