【作者】 刘虹；

【导师】 曾帆； 况福虹；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 农业硕士（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国城镇化水平快速提高,截至2022年底我国常住人口城镇化率已达65.22%。农业人口市民化过程随着城镇化进程的加快而加速发展,这将带来大量的人口和资源向城镇集聚,这种情况下城镇发生灾害将造成严重的损失。倾向于灾后恢复的传统的减灾防灾措施已经不能满足当前城镇发展需要,建设韧性城镇,实现灾前防御、灾时减灾、灾后恢复学习是未来城镇减灾防灾的关键举措。汶川地震区的城镇地质环境复杂,近年地震活动频次和因地震造成的损失位居全国前列,提高该区域城镇网络韧性水平是减少城镇损失、保障城镇系统稳定的必要之举。城市韧性在研究中已有丰富的研究成果,但韧性评估的方式方法差异较大,所选评估指标适用范围有限,难以直接利用,故对城镇防灾网络韧性进行评估,关键是要确定评估方法,选取针对性较强的评估指标以构建评估体系。故为了提升地震区城镇防灾空间网络韧性水平,本研究选择汶川地震中受灾严重的城镇威州镇和映秀镇作为研究对象,通过层次分析法以及德尔菲法构建韧性评估体系对两个城镇2008年以及2022年城镇防灾空间网络进行评估,并根据评估结果提出相应的优化策略,旨在增强城镇防灾空间网络韧性。本研究从以下几个方面展开:(1)在理论方面,通过文献分析法对韧性、韧性城镇、防灾空间网络、防灾空间网络韧性等概念进行了解析与界定;通过对我国古代防灾空间建设进行溯源,总结城镇防灾空间建设经验以及对当前城镇的启示;结合地震中城镇防灾空间网络的脆弱性表现,将本研究的城镇防灾空间网络分为应急保障空间、应急服务空间以及避难空间三个部分;通过鲁棒性、冗余性、快速性对城镇防灾空间网络韧性进行了表征。(2)构建评估体系:在初步筛选评估指标的基础上,通过德尔菲法参考专家意见,确定最终指标,构建了一个包括3个目标层要素,9个准则层要素,36个指标层要素的城镇防灾空间网络韧性评估指标体系;在指标确定的基础上,通过层次分析法和德尔菲法对进行指标赋权,计算各级指标权重并制定了指标打分说明表,构建了本研究的城镇防灾空间网络韧性评估体系。(3)实例应用:运用所构建的评估体系对2008年以及2022年威州镇和映秀镇的城镇防灾空间网络韧性进行评估,最终威州镇城镇防灾空间网络2008年得分32.616属于不合格等级,2022年得分80.519属于良好等级;映秀镇城镇防灾空间网络2008年得分26.721属于不合格等级,2022得分76.540属于一般等级,根据评估结果反馈所构建的评估体系具有一定的科学性和实用性。通过结果分析表明相较于震前,两镇当前的城镇防灾空间网络韧性水平均有较大幅度的提升,但也存在一些薄弱环节,结合实地调研情况,对威州镇和映秀镇城镇防灾空间网络针对性地提出了优化策略。本研究对威州镇以及映秀镇震前以及当前的城镇防灾空间网络展开韧性评估,以期提高四川地震区城镇防震减灾的能力,能为城镇防灾空间韧性研究提供新的视角;所构建的评估体系能够应用于与威州镇、映秀镇地理环境类似的城镇,具有一定的实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the level of urbanization in China has increased rapidly,and by the end of 2022,the urbanization rate of China’s permanent resident population had reached 65.22%.The process of urbanization has accelerated the urbanization of agricultural populations,which will bring a large number of people and resources to urban areas.Under these circumstances,disasters in urban areas will cause serious losses.Traditional disaster reduction and prevention measures that tend to focus on post-disaster recovery can no longer meet the needs of current urban development.Building resilient urban areas and achieving pre-disaster defense,disaster reduction during disasters,and post-disaster recovery learning are key measures for future urban disaster reduction and prevention.The geological environment of urban areas in the Wenchuan earthquake zone is complex,and the frequency of earthquake activity and losses caused by earthquakes in recent years rank among the highest in the country.Therefore,improving the network resilience level of urban areas in this region is a necessary measure to reduce urban losses and ensure the stability of the urban system.Urban resilience has been extensively studied,but there are significant differences in the methods and approaches used for resilience assessment,and the selected assessment indicators have limited applicability and are difficult to directly utilize.Therefore,the key to assessing the resilience of urban disaster prevention networks is to determine the assessment methods and select targeted assessment indicators to construct an assessment system.In order to improve the resilience of urban disaster prevention spatial networks in earthquake-prone areas,this study selects the severely affected towns of Weizhou and Yingxiu in the Wenchuan earthquake as research objects.The resilience assessment system for the urban disaster prevention spatial networks in these two towns in 2008 and 2022 is constructed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Delphi method.Based on the assessment results,corresponding optimization strategies are proposed to enhance the resilience of urban disaster prevention spatial networks.This study focuses on the following aspects:(1)Theoretical aspects: Through literature analysis,concepts such as resilience,resilient towns,disaster prevention spatial networks,and resilience of disaster prevention spatial networks are analyzed and defined.By tracing the ancient construction of disaster prevention spatial networks in China,the study summarizes the experience of urban disaster prevention spatial network construction and provides insights into current urban contexts.Based on the vulnerability of urban disaster prevention spatial networks in earthquakes,the study divides them into emergency support space,emergency service space,and refuge space,and characterizes the resilience of urban disaster prevention spatial networks through robustness,redundancy,and rapidity.(2)Construction of the assessment system: Based on the preliminary selection of assessment indicators,the Delphi method is used to refer to expert opinions to determine the final indicators.An assessment indicator system for the resilience of urban disaster prevention spatial networks is constructed,including three objective-level elements,nine criterion-level elements,and 36 indicator-level elements.After the indicators are determined,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Delphi method are used to assign weights to the indicators,calculate the weights of each level of indicators,and develop an indicator scoring instructions table,constructing the resilience assessment system for the resilience of urban disaster prevention spatial networks in this study.(3)Case application: The constructed assessment system is applied to evaluate the resilience of the urban disaster prevention spatial networks in Weizhou and Yingxiu towns in 2008 and 2022.The final scores show that the urban disaster prevention spatial network of Weizhou town in 2008 had a score of 32.616,which belongs to the unqualified level,while the score in 2022 was 80.519,belonging to the good level.The urban disaster prevention spatial network of Yingxiu town in 2008 had a score of 26.721,belonging to the unqualified level,while the score in 2022 was 76.540,belonging to the general level.According to the evaluation results,the constructed assessment system demonstrates certain scientific and practical value.The analysis of the results indicates that the resilience of the urban disaster prevention spatial networks in both towns has significantly improved compared to pre-earthquake levels,but there are still some weak areas.Based on field research,targeted optimization strategies are proposed for the urban disaster prevention spatial networks in Weizhou and Yingxiu towns.This study conducts a resilience assessment of the urban disaster prevention spatial networks in Weizhou and Yingxiu towns before and after the earthquake,aiming to improve the seismic disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of urban areas in the Sichuan earthquake zone and provide a new perspective for the research on the resilience of urban disaster prevention spatial networks.The constructed assessment system can be applied to towns with similar geographic environments as Weizhou and Yingxiu towns and has practical value.更多还原