【作者】 刘璐；

【导师】 马超；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 水利工程， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 水、风、光能源互补开发采用水电补偿风电和光伏接入电网所带来的波动,是保障并网电能质量和电网运行安全的有效方式。随着我国水-风-光多能互补系统的大规模集中式开发利用,风电与光伏的不确定性降低了水电的运行稳定性,也对风电、光伏消纳产生了不利影响。为发挥水-风-光多能互补特点,需要从规划层面合理配置与相应水电站适配的风光容量,探究水-风-光多能互补系统协同运行方式。根据上述问题,论文进行了考虑能源出力不确定性以及水电调节能力的水-风-光多能互补系统容量配置及协同运行研究,提出了风电、光伏不确定性研究方法,构建了系统容量配置及协同运行优化的嵌套模型,最后将研究成果应用于黄河上游水-风-光多能互补系统实例中。论文的主要内容及结果如下:(1)开展大规模水-风-光多能互补系统风电、光伏不确定性研究。论文提出了一种基于抽样的场景生成方法,通过场景来表征风电、光伏不确定性。利用Copula函数理论构建风电-光伏联合出力模型;采用拉丁立方体抽样方法对联合概率分布函数进行抽样;提出了基于风电、光伏波动特性的场景生成方法,并采用基于特征值降维的K-means算法对风电、光伏出力场景集合进行场景缩减。最后,将不确定性研究方法应用于黄河上游水-风-光多能互补系统,结果显示风电、光伏出力在不同季节存在着比较显著的差异。(2)开展大规模水-风-光多能互补系统容量配置及协同运行优化嵌套模型研究。提出了一种水电站协同风光能源运行的自适应两阶段互补策略;基于此构建了风光渗透率最大和系统出力最稳定为目标的容量配置模型嵌套水电出力变异系数最小为目标的协同运行优化模型;最后,提出了一种三层嵌套框架来求解层次结构下的互补系统容量配置及协同运行优化问题。(3)开展考虑能源不确定性的黄河上游水-风-光多能互补系统容量配置嵌套协同运行优化模型实例应用研究。对实例计算结果分析总结得到以下结论:在考虑不确定性的情况下,求得拉西瓦水电站配置风、光的最优容量为2800MW、1400MW。总结分析此配置方案下的各个场景中系统协同运行结果,揭示了风电、光伏不确定性对水电互补运行的影响机制,并且验证了提出的互补策略能够有效保障系统出力稳定送出。对互补系统在电网中承担的角色进行了评估,并进一步分析了容量配置对互补特性的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hydropower is utilized to compensate for the fluctuations caused by wind power and photovoltaic(PV)in the synergistic exploitation of hydro,wind power,and PV,which is an effective way to enhance the quality of grid-connected power and the operation stability of the grid.With the extensive centralized exploitation of hydro-wind-PV hybrid complementary system,the uncertain fluctuations of wind and PV output undermine the coordination of the hybrid system,and also has an adverse impact on the consumption of wind power and PV.Considering the complementary characteristics of hydro,wind power,and PV,it is the main issue to reasonably configure the capacity allocation scheme at the planning level,and explore the coordinated operation mode of the hydro-wind-PV multi-energy complementary system.Regarding the above issues,this study has carried out research on the capacity configuration and coordinated operation optimization of the hydro-wind-PV multi-energy complementary system considering energy uncertainty and hydropower regulation capabilities.The study method of wind and PV power output uncertainty are proposed,and a nested model of capacity configuration and coordinated operation optimization is constructed.Finally,the upper Yellow River hydro-wind-PV hybrid system is taken as an instance to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method and model.The details of the primary research are as follows:(1)The research on wind and PV power output uncertainty is carried out.A sampling-based scenario generation method is proposed to characterize the uncertainty of wind power and photovoltaics.The Copula theory is used to construct the joint distribution model of the wind power and PV output.The Latin cube sampling method is used to sample according to the joint probability distribution function.The joint wind-PV scenarios are generated based on the fluctuation characteristics of wind power and PV.And the K-means algorithm based on dimensionality reduction is used to reduce the scenario collection.Finally,the uncertainty research method is applied to the upper reaches of the Yellow River hydro-wind-PV multi-energy complementary system.The results verify that joint wind-PV scenarios have obvious seasonality.(2)The research on the large-scale hydro-wind-PV multi-energy complementary system capacity configuration nested coordinated operation optimization model research is carried out.A two-stage self-adaptive complementary strategy for the complementary system is proposed.Based on this,a capacity configuration model with the goal of the maximizing the wind and PV penetration rate and minimizing the system output fluctuation is constructed,nesting a cooperative operation optimization model with the goal of minimizing the variation coefficient of hydropower output.Finally,a three-layer nested framework is proposed to solve the problem of capacity allocation and collaborative operation optimization.(3)The application research of the capacity configuration nested coordinated operation optimization model of the Yellow River hydro-wind-PV multi-energy complementary system is carried out.The results show that the optimal complementary wind and PV capacities of the Laxiwa hydropower station are2800 MW and 1400 MW,respectively.The results of system coordinated operation in each scenario reveal the impact mechanism of wind power and PV uncertainty on the complementary operation.And it is verified that the proposed complementary strategy can effectively enhance the stability of the system output.Finally,the role of complementary systems in the power grid is evaluated,and the influence of capacity configuration on complementary characteristics is further analyzed.更多还原