【作者】 李亮；

【导师】 陈新建；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 保险（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 横县茉莉花种植面积和产量均为全国第一,茉莉花作为横县的重要经济作物,对横县农业经济发展、农民收入增加及脱贫致富起到了重要作用。然而,因茉莉花自身的生产习性,花价受降雨因素影响发生波动而对花农收入稳定性造成巨大影响,为了帮助农户分散降雨风险,横县从2019年开始试点茉莉花降雨指数保险,保障农户因降雨灾害导致的茉莉花收入损失。但由于降雨指数保险补贴机制尚不完善、保险费率高于传统种植保险等因素,农户投保积极性较低,不利于茉莉花降雨指数保险的市场开拓。农户的选择偏好与支付意愿对于天气指数保险的市场开拓具有至关重要的意义。因此,本文将从农户的角度出发,研究农户对茉莉花降雨指数保险的选择偏好与支付意愿,为促进茉莉花降雨指数保险的进一步发展出谋划策。本文以广西横县茉莉花为研究对象,首先分析了横县茉莉花产业及降雨指数保险发展情况,再论述了农户对茉莉花生产风险及降雨指数保险的认知。在此基础上,结合选择实验中获得的数据,应用混合logit模型进行计量分析,研究农户购买茉莉花降雨指数保险的选择偏好与支付意愿。研究结果显示:第一,保险金额、保费补贴比例对农户购买保险的影响是正向的,累计降雨天数赔付线、保费、最低投保比例对农户购买保险的影响是负向的;第二,农户可以从茉莉花降雨指数保险的保险金额、保费补贴比例、累计降雨天数赔付线、保费、最低投保比例属性中获得不同程度的效用,农户对保险方案各属性的偏好程度由高到低的排序为:保险金额>保费补贴比例>累计降雨天数赔付线>保费>最低投保比例;第三,农户对累计降雨天数赔付线、保险金额、保费补贴比例、最低投保比例四个属性的边际支付意愿分别为-21.022元、25.067元、22.933元、-0.133元;第四,模拟方案中农户的最佳选择是:累计降雨天数赔付线为90天、保险金额为4000元、保费补贴比例为80%、最低投保比例为50%时,在这种方案下,农户的支付意愿为71.023元/亩,农户愿意支付的保险费率为1.78%,低于试点方案保险费率4.5%。最后,本文根据相关研究结论,从政府、保险公司、农户三个方面提出对策建议,以促进茉莉花降雨指数保险的发展,具体内容如下:政府方面:一是完善相关法律法规和政策制度,二是给予财政补贴和人力支持,三是协调多部门共同促进茉莉花降雨指数保险发展;保险公司方面:一是加大宣传力度,拓展宣传渠道,二是提高保险服务质量,加强复合型人才引进与培养,三是发展银保合作模式,实施差异化补贴水平挂钩差异化保额;农户方面:一是正确认识保险,提高保险意识,二是积极参与宣传教育活动,增加自身知识储备。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important cash crop in Hengxian County,jasmine planting area and output are the first in the country,and the jasmine industry has played an important role in Hengxian County’s agricultural economic development,farmers’ income increase and poverty alleviation.However,due to the production habits of jasmine itself,the fluctuation of flower prices due to rainfall factors has a huge impact on the income stability of flower farmers,in order to help farmers disperse rainfall risks,Hengxian began to pilot jasmine rainfall index insurance in 2019 to protect farmers from jasmine income loss caused by rainfall disasters.However,due to factors such as the imperfect subsidy mechanism of rainfall index insurance and the higher insurance premium rate than that of traditional planting insurance,farmers’ enthusiasm for insurance is low,which is not conducive to the market development of jasmine rainfall index insurance.Farmers’ choice preference and willingness to pay are of crucial significance to the market development of weather index insurance.Therefore,this paper will study the choice preference and payment willingness of farmers for jasmine rainfall index insurance from the perspective of farmers,and make suggestions for promoting the further development of jasmine rainfall index insurance.Taking jasmine in Hengxian County,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as the research object,this paper first analyzes the development of jasmine industry and rainfall index insurance in Hengxian County,and then discusses farmers’ cognition of jasmine production risk and rainfall index insurance.On this basis,combined with the data obtained in the selection experiment,the mixed logit model was used for econometric analysis to study the choice preference and payment willingness of farmers to purchase jasmine rainfall index insurance.The results show that: first,the impact of insurance amount and premium subsidy ratio on farmers’ purchase of insurance is positive,and the impact of the compensation line,premium and minimum insurance ratio of cumulative rainfall days on farmers’ purchase of insurance is negative.Second,farmers can obtain different degrees of utility from the insured amount,premium subsidy ratio,cumulative rainfall days compensation line,premium,and minimum insurance ratio attributes of Jasmine Rainfall Index Insurance,and the farmers’ preference for each attribute of the insurance scheme is sorted from high to low: insurance amount> premium subsidy ratio> cumulative rainfall days compensation line> premium > Minimum insured ratio;Third,the marginal payment willingness of farmers for the four attributes of cumulative rainfall days,insurance amount,premium subsidy ratio and minimum insurance ratio was-21.022 yuan,25.067 yuan,22.933 yuan and-0.133 yuan,respectively.Fourth,the best choice for farmers in the simulation scheme is: when the compensation line for cumulative rainfall days is 90 days,the insurance amount is 4,000 yuan,the premium subsidy ratio is 80%,and the minimum insurance ratio is 50%,under this scheme,the farmers’ willingness to pay is 71.023 yuan / mu,and the insurance premium rate that farmers are willing to pay is 1.78%,which is 4.5%lower than the insurance rate of the pilot program.Finally,according to the relevant research conclusions,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from three aspects: government,insurance companies and farmers to promote the development of jasmine rainfall index insurance,the specific content is as follows: the government: first,improve relevant laws,regulations and policy systems,second,give financial subsidies and manpower support,and third,coordinate multiple departments to jointly promote the rapid development of jasmine rainfall index insurance;In terms of insurance companies: first,increase publicity and expand publicity channels,second,improve the quality of insurance services,strengthen the introduction and training of compound talents,and third,develop a bancassurance cooperation model,and implement differentiated subsidy levels linked to differentiated insured amounts;In terms of farmers: first,correctly understand insurance and improve insurance awareness,and second,actively participate in publicity and education activities to increase their own knowledge reserves.更多还原