【作者】 陈凯；

【导师】 宁静； 张玉红；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业硕士（专业学位）， 2023， 硕士

【摘要】 自古“民以食为天”,尤其是在世界面临百年未有之大变局的背景下,全球人口不断增加,耕地数量和质量大幅下降,人地矛盾日渐显著,再加上地方冲突、自然灾害、病毒传播等一系列因素,加剧了粮食危机的严重性。粮食生产在国民经济中发挥着重要作用,稳定粮食生产和提升粮食产量有助于保障我国粮食安全。近年来的《中央一号文件》均聚焦粮食安全问题,将“抓紧抓好粮食和重要农产品稳产保供”放在首位,为提升我国粮食生产能力,制定了一系列政策和措施。黑龙江省作为我国13个粮食主产区之一,在稳定和维护国家粮食安全方面发挥重要作用。黑龙江省粮食总产量自2010年起,连续十三年占据全国榜首,黑龙江省粮食产量的稳定和提升,充分发挥其对于国家粮食安全的“压舱石”作用,一方面为满足全国人民粮食需求和推动建设农业强国做出巨大贡献,另一面也促进黑龙江省农业经济的发展、缩小了城乡差距。黑龙江省在国家粮食生产中发挥着举足轻重的作用,因此,研究黑龙江省粮食生产时空格局变化及其影响因素,从而提出促进黑龙江省粮食增产的对策建议,对于黑龙江省的粮食生产发展具有重要意义,也为国家粮食安全问题保驾护航。本文在国内外粮食生产研究成果的基础上,首先阐述有关粮食生产的理论概念,并结合相关的学科理论方法,通过对黑龙江省2001-2021年间的粮食总产量、播种总面积和种植结构等方面进行分析,来对当前黑龙江省在粮食生产中存在着的优势和弊端进行说明,在阅读文献以及相关统计年鉴的基础上,对研究数据进行统计、梳理、计算整理之后,运用GIS分析方法和粮食产量重心模型分析2001-2021年黑龙江省13个地级市的粮食生产空间格局变化,最后运用主成分回归分析法对2001-2021年黑龙江省粮食生产的影响因素进行分析研究,探讨粮食产量与每个影响因素之间的关系。最后根据分析结果,结合黑龙江省粮食生产的现实情况,提出相对应的科学合理的政策和措施来保障和提升粮食生产水平。主要结论如下:(1)从时间角度来看,2001-2021年,黑龙江省粮食播种面积有大幅增长,由2001年的795.7万hm2增加到2021年的1455.1万hm2,增幅约82.87%,其中小麦退出了粮食作物的主导地位,且播种面积整体呈下降趋势,2021年比2001年减少了31.579万hm2,而水稻、玉米和大豆整体呈现上升趋势,玉米的播种面积增长幅度最大,由2001年的211万hm2增长至2021年的652.4万hm2,增幅约为209.2%,;黑龙江省粮食产量在2001-2021年间整体呈上升趋势,其中2001-2003年粮食产量有所波动,2003-2015年粮食产量快速增长,2015年达到7615.78万t,2015-2019年小幅下降,2019-2021年持续上升,2021年粮食产量创新高,首次达到7867.7万t;粮食作物种植结构中也存在着明显的变化,玉米代替大豆成为了种植比例最高的粮食作物,2021年占粮食总面积的44.84%,从粮食播种面积的角度来看,水稻、玉米类高产作物所占的比重从2001年的46.34%增长至2021年的71.41%,增加了25.07个百分点,而小麦、大豆类低产作物所占的比重则在不断的下降,由2001年的40.93%下降至2021年的27.18%,减少了13.75个百分点。(2)从空间角度看,黑龙江省的粮食产量具有一定的空间特征。Moran’s I值总体上表现为大豆>小麦>玉米>水稻,且都大于0.9,呈现出高集聚性。冷热点分析中,四种粮食作物的生产格局变化显著,其中水稻生产热点区域集中于黑龙江省的南部和东部地区,玉米的生产热点区域集中域黑龙江省的南部和西部地区,而大豆和小麦的生产热点区域集中在黑龙江省的西北部地区。水稻和玉米的集聚程度范围不断增加,大豆和小麦的集聚程度和范围有所减小。2021年,集聚程度和范围排序为水稻>玉米>大豆>小麦。(3)通过主成分回归分析对黑龙江省粮食产量影响因素进行研究,即首先运用主成分分析对黑龙江省粮食产量影响因素进行降维处理,并消除回归模型中的变量间存在的多重共线性,再将得到的主成分变量作为自变量与粮食产量作为因变量进行回归分析,得到线性回归方程,并结合年均增长率和其弹性系数,计算每个变量对粮食产量的贡献率。研究结果显示,农业机械总动力和农村用电量是黑龙江省粮食产量的主要影响因素,受灾面积和第一产业就业人数制约了粮食产量的增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 From ancient times to the present,the issue of food has always been an inescapable topic.Coupled with local conflicts,natural disasters,virus transmission and other factors,the severity of the food crisis has been exacerbated.Food production plays a significant role in the national economy,stabilising and increasing food production can help ensure food security in China.In latest years,the "Central Document No.1" has focused on the issue of food security,putting "tightly grasping the stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products" in the first place and proposing a series of policy measures to improve grain production capacity.Being one of the 13 major grain-producing regions in China,Heilongjiang Province plays an instrumental role in the stabilization and maintenance of national food security.Since 2010,Heilongjiang has been the top producer of grain in China for thirteen consecutive years.The stability and increase of grain production in Heilongjiang has given full play to its role as a "ballast" for national food security,making a great contribution to solving the problem of food supply for the whole country and promoting the building of a strong agricultural country on the one hand,and driving It has also contributed to the development of Heilongjiangs agricultural economy and reduced the gap between urban and rural areas.Heilongjiang Province plays a pivotal role in the countrys food production,so it is worth studying the changes in the pattern of spatial and temporal food production in Heilongjiang Province and the influencing factors,and to propose countermeasures to promote food production in Heilongjiang Province for the development of food production in Heilongjiang Province and to ensure national food security.In accordance with the achievements of grain production at home and abroad,this research paper firstly describes the theoretical concepts concerning grain production and combines relevant disciplinary theoretical approaches to explore and analyses the total grain production,total sown area and cropping structure in Heilongjiang Province during 2001-2021,then explains the advantages and disadvantages of current grain production in Heilongjiang Province,reads the literature and relevant statistical yearbooks,etc.,performs statistics,composes,calculates and organizes the relevant data,After reading literature and relevant statistical yearbooks,we analyzed the spatial pattern of grain production in 13 prefectures of Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2021 by using GIS analysis and grain production center of gravity model,and finally the principal component regression analysis was used to analyse the influencing factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2021 The study explores the relationship between each influencing factor and grain production.Finally,according to the analysis results,scientific and reasonable policies and measures are proposed to guarantee and improve grain production in Heilongjiang Province in the light of the real situation of grain production.The major findings are as follows:(1)From a time perspective,from 2001 to 2021,there is a significant increase in the sown area of grain in Heilongjiang Province,from 7.957 million hm2 to 14.551 million hm2 in 2021,an increase of about 82.87%,with wheat dropping out of the dominant position of grain crops and the sown area as a whole showing a decreasing trend,decreasing in 2021 compared to 2001 by 315.79 million hm2,rice,corn and soybeans show an overall upward trend,and corn has the largest increase in sown area,Growing from 2.11 million hm2 in 2001 to 6.524 million hm2 in 2021,an increase of approximately 209.2%.,from 2001 to 2021,grain production in Heilongjiang Province shows an obvious upward trend,with 2001-2003 grain production has fluctuated,2003-2015 grain production increased rapidly,reaching 76,157,800 t in 2015,declined slightly in 2015-2019,and continued to rise in 2019-2021,with a record high grain production in 2021,growing to 78,677,000 t;there has also been a great change in the grain crop planting structure,with corn replacing soybean as the highest proportion of grain crops,with 44.84% of the overall area of food sown in 2021.In terms of grain sown area,the percentage of high-yielding crops such as rice and corn rose from 46.34%in 2001 to 71.41% in 2021,an increase of 25.07 percentage points,while the proportion of lowyielding crops such as wheat and soybeans are declining,from 40.93% in 2001 to 27.18% in 2021,a decrease of 13.75 percentage points.(2)From the spatial perspective,grain production in Heilongjiang province has certain spatial characteristics.Moran’s I value generally shows soybean > wheat > corn > rice,and all of them are greater than 0.9,showing high clustering.In the cold hotspot analysis,the production patterns of the four food crops varied significantly,with rice production hotspot areas concentrated in the southern and eastern municipal areas of Heilongjiang Province,maize production hotspot areas concentrated in the southern and western areas of Heilongjiang Province,and soybean and wheat production hotspot areas concentrated in the northwestern areas of Heilongjiang Province.In 2021,the clustering degree and range of rice > corn > soybean > wheat were ranked as rice > corn >soybean > wheat.(3)The factors influencing grain yield in Heilongjiang province were studied by principal component regression analysis,i.e.,the factors influencing grain yield in Heilongjiang province were optimized and reduced in dimensionality by principal component analysis,and after eliminating the multicollinearity in the regression model by principal component analysis,the principal component variables were regressed as independent variables and grain yield as dependent variables to obtain linear regression equations,and combined with the average annual growth rate and elasticity coefficients to calculate the contribution of each variable to grain yield.The finding of the study indicated that the total power of agricultural machinery and rural electricity consumption were the main influencing factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province,and that the area affected and the number of people employed in the primary sector constrained the growth of grain production.更多还原