【作者】 袁帅；

【导师】 张宁； 刘中海；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 保险（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 虽然当前我国的社会保障体系正在不断完善,养老保障的相关制度改革也取得了重大成就,但日渐严重的人口老龄化问题对养老保险体系提出了严峻挑战。为能够全面实现老有所养的保障目标,打破城乡二元界限,促进制度公平和实现养老权力平等,我国于2014年正式将新农保与城镇居民养老保险并轨为城乡居民基本养老保险。该项制度发展至今,由于仍然存在着保障水平不高、城乡鸿沟拉大以及发展区域间差异明显等问题,对该项制度的运行效率、区域差异以及影响因素分析从而优化政策体系来提高制度的运行质效具有关键性的理论意义及现实意义。本文通过超效率SBM模型,综合我国内陆31个省、市以及自治区的城乡居保基金收支、基金结余、参保人数以及实际领取待遇人数五个指标进行了制度运行效率研究。基于所得到的效率结果,通过Moran指数进行了全局的空间自相关分析,进一步通过LISA聚类图分析了自制度并轨以来的各地区聚集情况的动态变化。最后本文通过Tobit模型对城乡居保制度运行效率进行了影响因素研究。本文得出了研究结论:(1)从全局视角上来看我国的城乡居保制度运行效率较高,但是仍然存在着较大的提升空间,只有小部分的发达地区省份达到了传统的SBM有效,并且超过一半省份的综合效率并未达到全国平均水平;(2)从时空格局视角上来,自并轨以来我国城乡居保发展存在明显的区域聚集效应,并且东部高效率地区的聚集程度逐渐稳定,但同时又存在着向周边地区辐射作用不足、缺乏协同性发展的问题;(3)从影响因素层面看,人均GDP、政府规模、老龄化人口密度、老年抚养比以及养老金替代率都对城乡居保制度运行综合效率产生了显著影响。基于以上的研究结果,本文就如何完善城乡居民养老保险制度并提高制度运行效率提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Although China’s current social security system is constantly improving,the related system reform of endowment security has made great achievements,the increasingly serious problem of aging population has posed a severe challenge to the endowment insurance system.In order to fully realize the security goal of providing for the elderly,break the boundary between urban and rural areas,promote the fairness of the system and realize the equality of pension rights,China officially merged the new rural insurance system and urban residents’ pension insurance into the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents in 2014.This system development until now,still exist due to the security level is not high,the widening gap between urban and rural areas and the development of clear difference between regions,for the running efficiency of the system,the regional difference and influence factor analysis to optimize the policy system to improve the system operation quality,and the effect of critical theory significance and practical significance.Based on the super-efficiency SBM model,this paper studies the operating efficiency of the system by integrating the five indicators of income and expenditure of urban and rural residential insurance fund,fund balance,number of insured people and number of people actually receiving benefits in 31 inland provinces,cities and autonomous regions of China.Based on the efficiency results obtained,the Moran index was used to conduct global spatial autocorrelation analysis,and LISA cluster graph was used to analyze the dynamic changes of clustering situation in each region since the system merged.Finally,this paper studies the influencing factors of the operation efficiency of urban and rural housing insurance system through Tobit model.This paper draws the conclusions :(1)from the overall perspective,the operation efficiency of China’s urban and rural housing insurance system is relatively high,but there is still a large space for improvement.Only a small number of developed provinces have reached the traditional SBM efficiency,and the comprehensive efficiency of more than half provinces has not reached the national average level.(2)From the perspective of spatial and temporal pattern,the agglomeration effect of urban and rural residential protection development has been obvious since the integration of urban and rural areas,and the agglomeration degree of the high-efficiency area in the eastern China is gradually stable,but at the same time,there is a lack of radiation effect to the surrounding areas,lack of synergistic development;(3)From the perspective of influencing factors,per capita GDP,government size,aging population density,old-age dependency ratio and pension replacement rate have a significant impact on the comprehensive efficiency of the operation of urban and rural housing insurance system.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to improve the old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents and improve the operation efficiency of the system.更多还原