【作者】 刘江；

【导师】 何永贵；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,分布式资源(Distributed Energy Resources,DER)以其清洁高效、配置灵活等优势,在能源转型背景下得到了快速发展。但因独立的分布式资源点多、量小、面广、异质等特点,导致其难以满足调度和电力市场的准入条件。与此同时,国家为促进能源转型提出了建设全国统一碳交易市场政策,而碳交易也会对能源系统的规划运行产生一定的影响。在此背景下,虚拟电厂(Virtual Power Plant,VPP)作为一项分布式资源集成技术,凭借其优越的聚合特性,以能量管理系统的形式代理分布式资源参与电力系统调度和电力市场化交易,有助于为分布式资源管理提供一种全新的解决方案。因此,为充分发挥虚拟电厂的价值,本文对计及碳交易下虚拟电厂的容量规划及风险评估问题进行研究,以期得到经济性最优且风险程度较低的虚拟电厂规划方案。首先,对国内外相关研究现状进行了梳理,在对虚拟电厂的概念、分类以及控制方式分析的基础之上,对本文所研究的虚拟电厂结构及控制方式进行了设定,并对其内部设备进行了建模。该部分为本文后续研究奠定了理论基础。其次,由于风光出力不确定性及碳交易机制对虚拟电厂的容量规划结果具有较大的影响,提出了基于时序蒙特卡洛模拟和启发式同步回代缩减技术的风光出力场景分析方法,并研究了虚拟电厂在碳交易机制下的碳交易成本量化模型,结合成本收益分析,构建了以典型场景下的虚拟电厂年期望净收益最大为优化目标的容量规划模型,并提出了基于约束嵌套法的优化模型求解方法。再次,考虑到在容量规划时以经济性作为优化目标,弱化了对其综合风险的考虑。因此,为了保证所提出的虚拟电厂容量规划方案不仅具有良好的经济效益,同时风险程度也处于可接受范围,本文设计了虚拟电厂规划风险指标体系,结合博弈论思想,将改进的层次分析法得出的主观权重与熵值法所得出的客观权重加以融合形成组合权重,并考虑到风险的模糊性和难以量化性,以云理论为基础构建了基于组合赋权-云模型的虚拟电厂规划风险评估模型。最后,通过算例验证所提规划模型和风险评估模型的有效性,并决策最优规划方案。算例结果显示,相对于未考虑风光出力不确定性以及碳交易成本的规划方案,本文所提的场景分析法下计及碳交易的虚拟电厂规划方案经济性最优且风险程度最低,表明本文构建的规划模型和风险评估模型科学有效。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,Distributed Energy Resources(DER)has developed rapidly in the context of energy transition due to its advantages of cleanliness,high efficiency and flexible configuration.However,due to the characteristics of many independent distributed resources,small amount,wide area,and heterogeneity,it is difficult to meet the access conditions of dispatching and power market.At the same time,in order to promote energy transformation,the state has proposed a policy of building a national unified carbon trading market,and carbon trading will also have a certain impact on the planning and operation of the energy system.In this context,Virtual Power Plant(VPP),as a distributed resource integration technology,researches that by virtue of its superior aggregation characteristics,it participates in power system scheduling and power marketoriented transactions as an agent of distributed resources in the form of energy management systems,which helps to provide a new solution for distributed resource management.Therefore,in order to give full play to the value of virtual power plants,this paper studies the capacity planning and risk assessment of virtual power plants considering carbon trading,in order to obtain the most economical and low-risk virtual power plant planning scheme.Firstly,the current research status at home and abroad is sorted out.Based on the analysis of the concept,classification and control method of virtual power plant,the structure and control method of the virtual power plant studied in this paper are set,and the internal equipment of the virtual power plant is set.modeled.This part lays the theoretical foundation for the follow-up research of this paper.Secondly,because the uncertainty of wind and solar output and the carbon trading mechanism have a great influence on the capacity planning results of virtual power plants,a wind and solar output scenario analysis method based on time-series Monte Carlo simulation and heuristic synchronous back-reduction reduction technology is proposed,and the research is carried out.Based on the carbon trading cost quantification model of virtual power plants under the carbon trading mechanism,combined with the cost-benefit analysis,a capacity planning model with the maximum annual expected net benefit of virtual power plants under typical scenarios as the optimization goal was constructed,and a constraint nesting method was proposed.optimization model solution method.Thirdly,considering economy as the optimization goal in capacity planning,the consideration of its comprehensive risk is weakened.Therefore,in order to ensure that the proposed virtual power plant capacity planning scheme not only has good economic benefits,but also has an acceptable risk level,this paper designs a virtual power plant planning risk index system,combines the idea of game theory,and uses the improved AHP to obtain The subjective weight obtained by the method and the objective weight obtained by the entropy method are combined to form a combined weight,and considering the ambiguity and difficulty of quantification of risk,a combined weight-cloud model-based virtual power plant planning risk is constructed based on cloud theory.Evaluate the model.Finally,the validity of the proposed planning model and risk assessment model is verified by an example,and the optimal planning scheme is decided.The calculation example results show that,compared with the planning scheme that does not consider the uncertainty of wind and solar output and the cost of carbon trading,the virtual power plant planning scheme considering carbon trading under the scenario analysis method proposed in this paper has the best economy and the lowest risk,indicating that this paper The constructed planning model and risk assessment model are scientific and effective.更多还原