【作者】 张伟；

【导师】 赵息； 白景美；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着地球不可再生资源面临枯竭,世界各国都在致力于可再生资源、新能源开发项目,希望可以找到不可再生资源的替代品。在此发展机遇之下,太阳能新能源迅速成为世界各国追捧的对象,太阳能光伏发电产业也迅速发展起来。但是自2009年开始,光伏发电产业就进入了发展的瓶颈期,产能过剩是其中最大的问题,究其原因,在于国内太阳能光伏发电项目建设规划不完善,存在盲目扩张的现象。基于此,本文以太阳能光伏发电项目为研究对象,分析该项目投资风险影响因素,并对风险做出评价,最终探究如何合理规避项目投资中的风险。本文研究基于当前我国太阳能光伏发电产业发展现实情况,结合太阳能光伏发电项目投资风险相关理论基础,对项目投资风险进行了概述,同时,从风险识别、风险评价和风险应对三个方面对项目投资风险管理进行了分析。然后针对文献分析梳理得到的F太阳能光伏发电项目投资风险因素,采用德尔菲法进行了风险因素的筛选分析,在专家的一致意见下,得到了影响F太阳能光伏发电项目投资风险的25个风险因素。其次,建立了F太阳能光伏发电项目投资风险评价指标体系,将25个风险因素,划分为技术、市场、经济、项目管理和自然环境等5个维度。再次,利用多层次模糊综合评价模型,确定25个风险因素评价指标的权重,并排序,确定通货膨胀、项目完工、技术适应性及匹配性、项目勘察设计、项目成本超支、地理地质条件这6个关键风险因素指标,其中关键风险维度为项目技术、社会经济和市场风险,而自然环境和项目管理为次要风险维度。最后,根据评价结果,得到F太阳能光伏发电项目投资风险的整体风险系数为0.5510,属于中等偏高的风险水平。根据多层次模糊综合评价结果,本文从F太阳能光伏发电项目投资中技术、经济风险和市场风险三个关键风险和项目管理、自然环境两大次要风险,针对主要和次要维度的25个风险进行分析,给出了风险回避、风险转移、风险自留和风险控制的具体应对策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the earth’s non-renewable resources facing exhaustion,countries around the world are committed to renewable resources,new energy development projects,hoping to find alternative non-renewable resources.Under this development opportunity,solar energy new energy quickly become the target of the world’s chase,solar photovoltaic power generation industry also develops rapidly.But since 2009,photovoltaic power generation industry has entered the bottleneck period of development,overcapacity is one of the biggest problems,the reason is that the domestic solar photovoltaic power generation project construction planning is not perfect,there is a phenomenon of blind expansion.Based on this,this thesis takes the solar photovoltaic project as the research object,analyzes the risk influencing factors of the project investment,and evaluates the risk,finally explores how to avoid the risk in the project investment reasonably.Based on the current situation of solar photovoltaic industry development in China,combined with the theory of investment risk related to solar photovoltaic project,this paper summarizes the investment risk of project,and analyzes the risk management of project investment from three aspects: risk identification,risk evaluation and risk response.Then,according to the investment risk factors of F solar photovoltaic project,the Delphi method is used to screen and analyze the risk factors,and 25 risk factors which affect the investment risk of F solar photovoltaic project are obtained through the agreement of experts.Secondly,the investment risk evaluation index system of F solar photovoltaic project is established,and 25 risk factors are divided into five dimensions: technology,market,social economy,project management and natural environment.Thirdly,we use the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to determine the weights of 25 risk factors evaluation indexes,and sort out the six key risk factors: inflation,project completion,technical adaptability and matching,project survey and design,project cost overruns,geographical and geological conditions,among which the key risk dimensions are project technology,social economy and market risk,while the natural environment and project management are secondary risk dimensions.Finally,according to the evaluation results,the overall risk coefficient of F solar photovoltaic project investment risk is 0.5510,which belongs to the middle and high risk level.According to the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,this thesis analyzes three key risks of investment risk of F solar photovoltaic project,namely technology,socioeconomic wind and market risk,project management and natural environment,and 25 specific risk factors,and gives the strategies of risk avoidance,risk transfer,risk retention and risk control.更多还原