旧区改造对周边住宅价格的影响研究

【作者】 姜萍；

【导师】 朱祎；

【作者基本信息】 上海财经大学 ， 投资经济， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 目前我国部分城市房地产业已经逐步进入了一个库存化的时代,旧区改造已经成为我国一线城市存量发展的重要手段。对满足市民住房需求,激活城市存量土地,提升城市未来的发展空间具有重要作用。对于推进城市治理能力和治理体系现代化,改善城市居民生活品质,城市旧区改造有着重要的意义。另一方面,城市旧区改造也是加速形成“国内经济大循环”的重要潜在力量,有利于激发商业活力,推动产业升级,盘活低效空间,对稳定我国经济基本面具有战略意义。与此同时,城市旧区改造还能协调城市区域发展不平衡的矛盾,改善人居环境,改善城市空间品质,提升城市功能。本文在参考国内外相关旧区改造及城市更新研究的理论基础上,运用双重差分模型(DID),选取上海市黄浦区作为实证研究对象,构建上海市黄浦区旧区改造地块对周边房地产住宅价格影响的双重差分模型。深入分析旧区改造地块对周边住宅价格的影响趋势及其影响程度。同时对旧区改造地块的不同用途进行区分及对比分析,具体用途区分分为商业住宅及公共用地,公共用地指旧区改造地块用于教育,公共用途(修建地铁,拓宽道路,社区用地等)。同时在此基础上从时间和空间两个维度进行价格影响分析的研究,时间上选取地块宣布改造前后的价格对比。空间维度上,研究对旧区改造不同辐射范围内(分为旧区改造地块0-1km及1km-3km)的二手房住宅价格的影响效应。经过回归分析得出结论旧区改造的确会对周边住宅产生正的溢出效应,且对距离旧区改造地块不同的住宅其影响程度不同。距离近的住宅影响更大,房价出现更大的涨幅。同时用于公共用途的地块相较于商业住宅功能的改造地块,对周边住宅价格的影响更大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays,the real estate industry in some cities,especially big cities has gradually entered the era of stock,and the transformation of old districts has become an important way for the stock development of major cities in China.It plays an important role in meeting the housing needs of citizens,activating the city’s stock of land,and enhancing the city’s future development space.The transformation of old urban areas is quite important to enhance the modernization of urban governance capabilities and governance systems,and improving the quality of life of urban residents.On the other hand,the transformation of old urban areas is also an important potential force in accelerating the formation of the "domestic economic cycle",which is conducive to stimulating business vitality,promoting industrial upgrading,and revitalizing inefficient spaces.It is a significant strategy to stabilize our country’s economic fundamentals.At the same time,the transformation of old urban areas can also coordinate the contradictions of uneven urban regional development,improve the living environment and the quality of urban space,enhance urban functions as well.Based on the theoretical basis of the related old district reconstruction and urban renewal research,this article used a simulation model “Difference-In-Differences(DID)”,taking Shanghai Huangpu District as the research object,then built a composite reflection model of the impact of redevelopment plots in the old district of Huangpu District,Shanghai on residential real estate prices.Researched on the trend and extent of the influence of land redevelopment in old districts on surrounding real estate prices.Meanwhile,they compare distinguish,and then analyze the different usages of the worn district reconstruction lands.The specific usages are divided into commercial& residential and public area.Public area refers to the old area reconstruction land for education and public use(building subways,widening roads,community land etc.).Meanwhile,upon above basis,the price impact analysis is carried out from the two dimensions of time and space,and the pricing comparison ahead of and afterwards the announcement of the transformation.In the spatial dimension,study the effect on the price of second-hand housing in different radiation ranges of the old area renovation(divided into old area renovation plots of 0-1km and1km-3km).After regression analysis,it is concluded that the renovation of the old district will indeed have a positive spillover effect on the surrounding residential buildings,and the impact on the residences at different distances from the renovation of the old district will be different.Houses that are close to old district renovation have a greater impact,and their prices have seen a greater increase.At the same time,the land used for public purposes has a greater impact on the price of surrounding residential buildings than the converted land for commercial residential functions.更多还原