【作者】 王媛媛；

【导师】 蔡如海；

【作者基本信息】 中央财经大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的高速发展,我国居民在物质生活方面获得很大满足,对体育运动、健身娱乐等方面的需求日益提高。近年来,我国体育产业快速发展,体育产业的经济总量不断攀升,激发了我国体育事业发展活力。受益于我国体育产业的发展,作为体育产业中一个重要子行业,我国体育用品行业也得到了不断的发展。2020年,受疫情影响,我国体育产业面临重大挑战;然而疫情之下,我国体育用品企业正在进行着一系列变化与重塑,于困境中迎来机遇:飞速崛起中的电商和直播带货,让众多体育用品企业加快了数字化转型的进程;与此同时,年轻消费者爱国意识的普遍崛起也让我国本土的体育用品企业收获了前所未有的关注,“国潮”正当时。我国体育用品企业已逐步向崭新的充满机遇的后疫情2.0时代迈进。本文结合定性和定量两种分析方法,理论研究联系案例分析。首先对体育用品企业以及企业投资价值分析相关文献进行整理总结,其次从行业内涵、发展历程、产业链上下游以及行业发展前景和存在问题几个方面对我国体育用品行业进行定性分析,然后利用因子分析法对行业内部重点上市企业近三年进行打分排序,印证了本文案例企业—安踏体育在行业内本土企业中的龙头地位;而后对案例企业的投资价值进行详细分析梳理,最后根据行业特点选取EVA估值方法对安踏体育进行估值,计算出历史EVA并据此预测安踏体育企业价值为26,396,911万元,折合每股为97.65元(119.14港币),投资者对安踏体育存在着不理性的过度预期,经过长达半年多的价格回调,目前安踏体育股价已逐步趋于合理价位。本文为广大投资者的投资决策提供依据。同时,通过价值评估结果来考核管理层能够起到激励约束的作用,从一定程度上来说,对我国体育用品企业的投资价值分析结果可以用来激励和约束企业管理层,对暗箱操作和利润操纵现象加以遏制,也是对广大中小投资者利益的保护。更多还原

【Abstract】 With my country’s economy developing rapidly,Chinese residents have been greatly satisfied in terms of material life,and their needs for sports,fitness and entertainment are increasing.In these years,China’s sports industry has made a lot progress,the proportion of total sports economy is increasing year by year,and the vitality of sports development is constantly stimulated.Benefiting from the development of China’s sports industry,the sports goods industry,as an important sub-industry of the sports industry,has also been continuously developing.In 2020,China’s sports industry faces major challenges due to the impact of the epidemic.However,under the epidemic situation,China’s sporting goods enterprises are undergoing a series of changes and remodeling,embracing opportunities in the difficult situation: the rapid rise of e-commerce and live streaming goods,so that many sporting goods enterprises accelerate the process of digital transformation;At the same time,the general rise of patriotic awareness of young consumers also let China’s local sporting goods enterprises harvest unprecedented attention,"national tide" at the right time.China’s sporting goods enterprises have gradually stepped forward into a new post-epidemic 2.0 era full of opportunities.In this article,through the combination of theoretical research and case analysis,also qualitative and quantitative methods’ combination,the first analysis of investment value of the sports goods enterprises,and relevant literature to summarize,the second from the connotation,development,industrial chain upstream and downstream,as well as industry development prospects and existing problems from several aspects to our country sporting goods industry analysis and qualitative analysis,Then the factor analysis method is used to score and rank key listed enterprises in the industry in recent three years,which confirms the leading position of anta Sports in the local enterprises in the industry.Then,the investment value of the case enterprise is analyzed in detail.Finally,EVA valuation method is selected to evaluate Anta Sports according to the characteristics of the industry.Historical EVA is calculated and the value of Anta Sports enterprise is predicted to be 26,396,911 yuan,equivalent to 97.65 Yuan(119.14HKD)per share.Investors have unreasonable and excessive expectations for Anta Sports.After more than half a year’s price correction,anta Sports’ share price has gradually approached a reasonable price.This paper provides the basis for the majority of investors to make investment decisions.At the same time,evaluating the management through the results of value evaluation can play a role of incentive and constraint,and to a certain extent,it can curb profit manipulation and black box operation,in order to protect the interests of the majority of small and medium investors.更多还原