【作者】 毛敏；

【导师】 杨宗辉；

【作者基本信息】 中南财经政法大学 ， 侦查学， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以毒品犯罪的现状为基本视角,通过分析风险决策的理论内涵,试图缩小风险决策与毒品犯罪侦查决策之间的张力,明确指出毒品犯罪侦查决策中的现存问题,并对毒品犯罪侦查风险决策的优势分析引出风险决策在毒品犯罪侦查中的重要作用,构建毒品犯罪侦查的风险决策机制。第一章对风险决策的理论内涵进行分析,并探讨风险决策的理论基础,认知风险决策。风险决策是风险理论与决策理论的深度融合,从“风险”、“决策”视域下的风险决策进行阐述,指出风险决策的实用性和功能性、必要性和重要性、关联性和对抗性。期望效用理论、前景理论、三参照点理论为风险决策在毒品犯罪侦查中的应用提供了强有力的理论支持。第二章对风险决策运用于毒品犯罪侦查活动的优势进行分析,指出毒品犯罪侦查需要风险决策的必要性。风险决策能够破除侦查传统思维的束缚,强化毒品犯罪侦查情势的认知,适应新型毒品犯罪侦查的客观要求。同时,风险决策还能有效规避侦查错误,并体现侦查之“真”、侦查之“善”以及侦查之“美”的价值。第三章对我国当前毒品犯罪侦查风险决策中的现存问题进行梳理归纳,从侦查主体思维层面和应对机制层面进行论述。从主体思维层面来看,对毒品犯罪的新变化认识不清,侦查风险决策思维导向不足,侦查风险决策意识薄弱,风险标准认知不一。从毒品犯罪侦查风险决策应对机制来看,尚未理清风险决策的特定原则、模式和程序。第四章对毒品犯罪中风险决策的机制予以构建。从风险决策的思维进路、运用原则和运用方法展开。毒品犯罪侦查风险决策,应从弱化思维定势、矫正认知失调、开启头脑风暴三方面作为思维进路。侦查风险决策的运用要根据案件的具体情况进行选择,并遵循效益原则、满意原则和简单原则。梳理风险决策的具体实操,运用决策树分析法、期望值分析法和灵敏度分析法对方案进行优选。第五章对毒品犯罪侦查风险决策引入控制下交付、隐匿身份侦查和技术侦查措施的具体运用进行探讨。通过确立风险决策评估内容、划分风险决策评估等级、健全风险决策评估流程,对上述侦查措施的风险决策进行构建。通过健全风险决策运用的相关流程,确立事前审批、事中规制、事后规制的具体程序,确保毒品犯罪侦查风险决策的有效实施。毒品犯罪侦查风险决策,意即在毒品犯罪侦查活动中,侦查人员在客观情势下把握案件整体动向,基于犯罪场域和侦查情势的特点,利用决策理论搜集信息、评估风险,以常态化的风险决策原则、模式、程序进行侦查方案优选的活动。妥善运用风险决策,将有效拓展毒品犯罪侦查的方法武库,提升毒品犯罪的侦查能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the current situation of drug crimes as the basic visual Angle,through the analysis of the theoretical connotation of risk decision-making,trying to minimize risk decision-making and decision-making,the tension between the drug crimes investigation clearly pointed out the problems existing in drug crimes investigation decision,and the risk of drug crime detection risk decision analysis on the advantages of decision-making in the investigation of the important role of drug crime,Construct the risk decision-making mechanism of drug crime investigation.The first chapter analyzes the theoretical connotation of risk decision-making,and discusses the theoretical basis of risk decision-making,cognitive risk decision-making.Risk decision-making is the deep integration of risk theory and decision-making theory.It expounds risk decision-making from the perspective of "risk" and "decision",and points out the practicality and function,necessity and importance,relevance and antagonism of risk decision-making.Expected utility theory,prospect theory and three reference point theory provide strong theoretical support for the application of risk decision in drug crime investigation.The second chapter analyzes the advantages of risk decision-making in drug crime investigation and points out the necessity of risk decision-making in drug crime investigation.Risk decision-making can break the shackles of traditional thinking of investigation,strengthen the cognition of the situation of drug crime investigation,and adapt to the objective requirements of new drug crime investigation.At the same time,risk decision-making can effectively avoid the error of investigation,and reflect the value of "truth","goodness" and "beauty" of investigation.The third chapter sorts out and summarizes the existing problems in the risk decision-making of drug crime investigation in China and discusses them from the perspective of the main body of investigation thinking and coping mechanism.From the perspective of the subject’s thinking,the new changes of drug crimes are not clearly understood,the decision-making thinking orientation of investigation risk is insufficient,the decision-making consciousness of investigation risk is weak,and the cognition of risk standard is different.From the perspective of risk decision-making coping mechanism of drug crime investigation,the specific principles,modes and procedures of risk decision-making have not been clarified.The fourth chapter constructs the mechanism of risk decision-making in drug crime.From the risk decision-making thinking approach,application principles and methods.The risk decision of drug crime investigation should be made from three aspects: weakening thinking pattern,correcting cognitive dissonance and opening up brainstorming.The application of investigation risk decision should be selected according to the specific situation of the case,and follow the principle of benefit,satisfaction and simplicity.The practical operation of risk decision-making is sorted out,and decision tree analysis,expected value analysis and sensitivity analysis are used to optimize the scheme.Chapter five discusses the specific application of the risk decision of drug crime investigation,such as delivery under control,concealment of identity investigation and technical investigation measures.By establishing the content of risk decision assessment,dividing the risk decision assessment level and perfecting the risk decision assessment process,the risk decision of the above investigation measures is constructed.To ensure the effective implementation of risk decision-making in drug crime investigation,the relevant procedures of risk decision-making application should be improved,and the specific procedures of prior approval,in-process regulation and post-process regulation should be established.Drug crime detection risk decision,which means in drug crimes investigation activities,investigators in the objective circumstances grasp case overall trend,based on the criminal field and the characteristics of the investigation of the situation,using the theory of decision to collect information,evaluating risk,with normalized principles of risk decision-making,plan optimization model,program investigation activities.Proper use of risk decision-making will effectively expand the Arsenal of methods of drug crime investigation,enhance the ability of drug crime investigation.更多还原