【作者】 黄婧；

【导师】 梁晓晖；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 劳动卫生与环境卫生学， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 目的:通过收集南京市与扬州市在同一时间段内面对新冠肺炎局部暴发所发布的所有公开政策通告,分析两地应对措施的差异,同时结合两地的流行特征与舆情反响,评价防控成效,提炼不同类型城市抗击新冠肺炎疫情中存在的经验与不足,以期在面对目前新冠肺炎点多、面广、频发的流行现况时,为我国其他省市优化防控策略,提升新冠疫情防控能力提供建议和参考。方法:基于暴发时间、传播类型、城市规模,选取南京市与扬州市为研究对象。从文献数据库、政府官网、新闻网站获取相关文献、政策文件和数据资料,采用对比分析法,比较两地新冠肺炎流行情况,分出流行阶段;采用文本分析法梳理新冠肺炎疫情防控政策的演变脉络,使用TF-IDF算法提取不同阶段防控政策高频词,并按流行阶段进行分段分析;采用爬虫方法爬取了微博网民发布的有关两地疫情的言论,得到网民对于两地疫情防控的舆情情感倾向与高频词;以持续时间、感染率、重症率等指标为流行病学指标,舆情情感极性为舆情指标多维度评价两地防控效果。结果:(1)南京疫情自2021年7月20日始,8月13日清零,此后14天均无病例报告,历时25日,累计确诊病例235人,重症率为3.40%。可分为三个流行阶段:扩散期(7月20–24日),暴发期(7月25-28日),下降期(7月29-8月13日)。期间共发布政策通知84条,日均发文量:暴发期>扩散器>下降期。政策高频词词量分布为卫生应急处理>重点环节防控>组织保障。除主题词外权重最高的为“核酸”,其次为“街道”、“社区”。扩散期政策文本内容的核心是“核酸”、“机场”、“市民”,侧重于防止外溢与群众劝导;暴发期为“健康”、“严格”、“社区”,由围堵逐渐转为围堵与保障并重;下降期为“公众”、“不力”、“流程”政策以组织保障为主。舆情分析显示积极情感超过半数,主导着整体的情感走向,积极情绪在扩散期百分比最高,消极情感在暴发期百分比最高。舆情高频词显示民众较关注“核酸”、“黄码”、“排队”、“检测点”、“居家”等方面。总体而言市内防控效果较好,但防控措施细节也需要改进。(2)扬州疫情自2021年7月28日始,8月27日清零,此后14天均无病例报告,历时31天,累计确诊病例570例,重症率为7.72%。可分为三个流行阶段:扩散期(7月28–8月1日),暴发期(8月2-15日),下降期(8月16–8月27日)。期间共发布政策通知162条,日均发文量:暴发期>下降期>扩散期。政策高频词词量分布为卫生应急处理>重点环节防控>组织保障。权重最高的为“人员”,其次为“核酸”。扩散期政策文本内容的核心是“核酸”、“肺炎”、“客运站”,侧重于交通管控,防止外溢;暴发期为“人员”、“交通”、“管控”,侧重于物资保障、社区防控;下降期为“疫情”、“安全”、“人员”,侧重点于暴发期类似。舆情分析显示积极情感超过半数,主导着整体的情感走向,积极情绪在暴发期百分比最高,消极情感在扩散期百分比最高。舆情高频词显示民众较关注“核酸”、“封城”、“毛老太”、“社区”、“居家”等方面。总体而言防控措施严厉,政策透明度高,组织保障到位,但疫情防控中出现了较多人为因素问题,引发了拐点推后、网络暴力等现象。结论:在2021年新一轮Delta变异株所导致的全国性多点局部暴发疫情中,南京与扬州都制定了一系列积极的防控政策,迅速结束了当地的疫情。南京作为疫情暴发的起始点,虽特殊的传播模式导致外溢范围较广,防控措施细节也有待改进。但市内疫情防控效果较佳,舆论积极情感占主导。而扬州通过严厉的防控措施、覆盖范围广泛的组织保障措施,也将此次疫情限制在可控范围之内,但疫情防控中出现了的较多人为因素问题,也仍需在后续的防控实践中加以改善。总体而言,在应对暴发疫情时,全员核酸检测仍是早期发现潜在患者最主要的手段,街道、社区的管控也是遏制疫情进一步发展的重要手段,而物资保障则是封闭城市战胜疫情的重要支撑。在不同的流行阶段,城市应找准防控重点,重视组织保障与舆情对防控细节优化的重要性,在后疫情时代更加关注疫情所导致的次生灾害,进一步完善城市的新冠肺炎防控体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 ObjectiveBy collecting public policy notices issued by Nanjing and Yangzhou municipal governments in the face of local outbreaks of COVID-19 in the same period,analyzing the differences in response measures between the two cities,evaluating the effectiveness of prevention and control combined with the epidemic characteristics and public opinion response of the two cities,and refining the experience and shortcomings of different types of cities in fighting COVID-19.It is hoped to provide suggestions and references for other cities in China to optimize prevention and control strategies when facing the current situation of multiple COVID-19 cases,widespread and frequent occurrence.MethodsBased on the outbreak time,transmission type and city size,Nanjing and Yangzhou were selected as the research objects.Relevant literature,policy documents,and data were obtained from literature databases,official websites of the government,and news websites.Comparative analysis was used to compare the prevalence of COVID-19 in the two places.Text analysis was used to sort out the evolution of COVID-19 prevention and control policies.TF-IDF algorithm was used to extract high-frequency words in different stages of these policies,and segmented analysis was conducted according to epidemic stages.The crawler method was used to crawl the comments about the epidemic situation in the two places published by the netizens on Weibo,and the sentiment tendency and high-frequency words about the epidemic prevention and control in the two places were obtained.Duration,infection rate,severe disease rate and other indicators were used as epidemiological indicators,and polarity of public sentiment was used as public sentiment indicators to evaluate the prevention and control effect of the two places.Results(1)The epidemic in Nanjing started from July 20,2021 to August 13,2021.No case was reported for the following 14 days,which lasted for 25 days.A total of 235 confirmed cases were confirmed,with a severe case rate of 3.40%.It can be divided into three epidemic stages: diffusion phase(July 20-24),outbreak phase(July 25-28),and decline phase(July 29-August 13).84 policy notices were issued,and the average daily amount of articles was in the outbreak period > diffuser > decline period.The distribution of policy high-frequency words was epidemic response > key link prevention and control >organizational guarantee.In addition to the subject word,the highest weight " word was nucleic acid",followed by "street" and "community".The core content of the policy text in the diffusion period was "nucleic acid","airport" and "citizens",focusing on preventing spillovers and persuading the masses.In the outbreak phase,the focus was on "personnel","transportation" and "control",focusing on material support and community prevention and control.The emphasis of the decline phase was "epidemic","security" and "personnel",and the emphasis of the outbreak phase was similar.Public opinion analysis showed that positive emotions were more than half,leading the overall emotional trend,positive emotions in the diffusion phase of the highest percentage,negative emotions in the outbreak phase of the highest percentage.Public opinion high-frequency words showed that people were more concerned about "nucleic acid","yellow code","queue","detection point","home" and other aspects.Overall,the prevention and control effect in the city is good,but the details of prevention and control measures also needed to be improved.(2)The outbreak in Yangzhou lasted 31 days from July 28,2021 to August 27,2021.A total of 570 confirmed cases were reported,with a severe case rate of 7.72%.It can be divided into three epidemic stages: diffusion stage(July 28--August 1),outbreak stage(August 2--15),and decline stage(August 16--August 27).162 policy notices were issued,and the average number of published articles was outbreak period > decline period >diffusion period.The distribution of policy high-frequency words was epidemic response >key link prevention and control > organizational guarantee.The highest weight was "personnel",followed by "nucleic acid".The core of the policy text in the diffusion period is "nucleic acid","pneumonia" and "passenger station",which focus on traffic control and prevention of spillover.In the outbreak phase,the focus was on "personnel","transportation" and "control",focusing on material support and community prevention and control.The emphasis of the decline phase was "epidemic","security" and "personnel",and the emphasis of the outbreak phase was similar.Public opinion high-frequency words showed that people are more concerned about "nucleic acid","lockdown","old Lady Mao","community","home" and other aspects.On the whole,the prevention and control measures are strict,the policy transparency was high,and the organizational guarantee was in place.However,there were many human factors in the prevention and control of the epidemic,which leaded to the phenomenon of turning point delay and cyber violence.ConclusionsDuring the outbreak caused by the Delta variant in 2021,both Nanjing and Yangzhou formulated a series of active prevention and control policies,which quickly ended the local epidemic.Nanjing was the starting point of the outbreak.Although the special transmission pattern leaded to a wide scope of spillover,the details of prevention and control measures needed to be improved.However,the epidemic prevention and control effect in the city was better,and the public opinion was dominated by positive emotions.Yangzhou also limited the epidemic within a controllable range through strict prevention and control measures and extensive organizational support measures.However,there were many human factors in the epidemic prevention and control,which still need to be improved in the follow-up prevention and control practice.In general,nucleic acid testing was still the most important means for early detection of potential patients in response to the outbreak.Control of streets and communities was also an important means to contain the further development of the epidemic,while material security was an important support for the containment of the epidemic in closed cities.In different epidemic stages,cities should identify the key points of prevention and control,attach importance to organizational support and public opinion for the optimization of prevention and control details,pay more attention to secondary disasters caused by the epidemic in the post-epidemic era,and further improve the urban COVID-19 prevention and control system.更多还原