【作者】 王丽娟；

【导师】 邢贞相；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源是人类生存和社会发展的基本保障,是一切生物赖以生存的根本。随着现代化进程的加快,人们对水的需求量日益增大,水资源短缺已是人类面临的又一难题。农业是用水大户,黑龙江省是全国最大的粮食生产基地,研究黑龙江省粮食主产区水资源优化配置,对保障黑龙江省商品粮基地建设,合理分配和高效利用有限的水资源,兼顾经济效益和农业水资源合理开发等都具有重要意义。本文以黑龙江省建三江垦区为研究区域,对其供需水进行分析,以此为基础,综合考虑水资源系统中的多种不确定性及复杂性,构建两阶段随机规划的水资源优化配置模型,科学地将有限的地表水和地下水高效合理的分配到各农场各用水作物（水稻、玉米、大豆）,以实现经济效益最大化的目的。本文研究成果可以为建三江垦区及其他区域的农业水资源优化配置提供参考依据。主要研究内容及结论如下:（1）根据建三江垦区多水源取水的特点,分别分析现状年地表水和地下水的可供水量。现状2018年,建三江垦区总用水量31.1亿m3,可供水量22.9亿m³,缺水量8.2亿m3,在保证生活和工业用水的前提下,农业可用水量为22.8亿m³。区域内耕地面积的90%以上种植需水量较高的作物水稻,直接关系着农业水资源的分配使用,且农业水资源量又直接影响农业的可持续发展,有必要对建三江垦区进行农业水资源的优化配置研究。（2）以系统收益最大为目标,建立耦合多种数学方法的区间两阶段随机规划的水资源优化配置模型,针对水资源配置模型中变量存在较强不确定的特点,降水量采用离散概率分布处理,各水源可用水量采用三角模糊数处理,其余不确定的参数采用区间数处理。模型的建立有效地反映了水资源配置系统中的不确定性,同时将农业水资源在不同农场、不同作物间进行优化配置,提高农业水资源利用率。利用2018年的基础数据对已构建模型的有效性进行验证,通过对比原始收益和模型优化结果发现该模型考虑了不同来水水平下的来水量,模型优化结果能够在一定程度上有效地提高水资源综合收益。（3）将建立的模型应用于规划2025年的建三江垦区农业水资源优化配置,得到不同来水水平下的配水量、缺水量。在不同来水水平下,水稻的配水量随着来水水平的升高而增大,缺水量随着来水水平的升高而减小,但在可用水量充足的情况下,配水量为最优配水目标,不存在水短缺现象;各农场的玉米和大豆的配水量均为最优配水目标,且不存在水短缺现象。根据决定最优配水目标值的决策变量z_ij的不同取值,通过模型得到垦区各农场的多种配水方案,经过比较分析,模型求解的垦区最优方案保证缺水量较小前提下水资源系统收益最大,故模型可以有效的在系统收益和惩罚风险间进行权衡,为管理者提供符合垦区实际水源特点和种植结构下,对系统收益和惩罚风险各有侧重条件下的作物配水方案及最优的配水方案,为垦区管理者提供科学的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources are the basic guarantee for human survival and social development,and are fundamental for the survival of all living things.With the acceleration of modernization,people’s demand for water is increasing,and water shortage has become another problem faced by human beings.Agriculture is a major water user,and Heilongjiang Province is the largest grain production base in China.It is important to study the optimal allocation of water resources in the main grain producing areas of Heilongjiang Province to ensure the construction of the commercial grain base in Heilongjiang Province,to reasonably allocate and efficiently use the limited water resources,and to take into account the economic benefits and reasonable development of agricultural water resources.In this paper,we analyze the water supply and demand in the Jiansanjiang Reclamation Area of Heilongjiang Province as the study area,and based on this,we consider various uncertainties and complexities in the water resources system,and construct a two-stage stochastic planning model for optimal allocation of water resources to scientifically allocate the limited surface water and groundwater to each crop（rice,corn,soybean）of each farm in an efficient and reasonable manner,so as to maximize the economic benefits.The research results of this paper can be used to provide a basis for the development of an optimal allocation model for water resources in Jiansanjiang.The research results of this paper can provide a reference basis for the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources in the Jiansanjiang Reclamation Area and other regions.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows.（1）According to the characteristics of multiple water sources for water extraction in the Jiansanjiang Reclamation Area,the available water supply of surface water and groundwater in the status quo year is analyzed separately.In 2018,the total water consumption in Jiansanjiang reclamation area was 3.11 billion m3,with 2.29 billion m3 available and 820 million m3shortage,and the water available for agriculture was 2.28 billion m3 under the premise of ensuring water for living and industry.90%of the arable land in the region is planted with rice,a crop with high water demand,which is directly related to the distribution and use of agricultural water resources,and the amount of agricultural water resources directly It is necessary to study the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources in the Jiansanjiang reclamation area.（2）With the objective of maximizing economic benefits,an interval two-stage stochastic planning water resources optimization allocation model coupled with various mathematical methods is established.In view of the strong uncertainty of variables in the water resources allocation model,precipitation is treated by discrete probability distribution,water availability of each water source is treated by triangular fuzzy numbers,and the remaining uncertain parameters are treated by interval numbers.The model was established to effectively reflect the uncertainties in the water allocation system,while optimizing the allocation of agricultural water resources among different farms and crops and improving the utilization rate of agricultural water resources.The validity of the constructed model was verified by using the base data in 2018,and by comparing the original returns with the model optimization results,it was found that the model considered the incoming water under different incoming water levels,and the model optimization results could effectively improve the comprehensive water resources returns to a certain extent.（3）The model was applied to the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources in Jiansanjiang Reclamation Area in 2025,and the water allocation and shortage under different water supply levels were obtained.Under different water supply levels,the water allocation for rice increases with the increase of water supply level,and the water shortage decreases with the increase of water supply level,but under the condition of sufficient water availability,the water allocation is the optimal water allocation target,and there is no water shortage;the water allocation for corn and soybean in each farm is the optimal water allocation target,and there is no water shortage.According to the different values of the decision variable z_ij,which determines the optimal water allocation target,the model can be used to obtain multiple water allocation schemes for each farm in the reclamation area.After comparison and analysis,the optimal scheme of the reclamation area solved by the model ensures the maximum return of the agricultural water system with a small water shortage,so the model can effectively make a trade-off between the system return and the penalty risk,and provide managers with a solution that is consistent with the actual water characteristics and planting structure of the reclamation area.The model can provide managers with the optimal crop water distribution plan and the optimal water distribution plan under the conditions of system benefits and penalty risks,and provide a scientific basis for managers in the reclamation area.更多还原