【作者】 李丹；

【导师】 李丹；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 历史和国际经验表明,人口老龄化是社会经济发展的必然趋势,会对国家或地区的劳动力供给、消费需求、产业结构等产生较大影响。虽然中国进入老龄化社会较晚,但增长速度快、老年规模大,老年人口比重现已超过大多数发达国家,老龄化问题不容小觑。与此同时,中国长期依赖人口红利的比较优势占据劳动密集型产业,而人口老龄化带来劳动力短缺、劳动成本上升等问题,压缩劳动密集型产业的利润空间,传统的发展模式难以为继。当前中国经济已转入高质量发展阶段,把创新驱动作为经济增长的核心动力,利用科技创新来推动产业发展,着力构建现代化产业体系;但自主创新动力不足、三大产业发展不均衡、产业内部结构不合理等问题凸显,我国产业结构优化调整既面临重大机遇又面临严峻挑战。因此,在人口老龄化逐渐加深、创新驱动战略深入实施以及产业结构亟待转型升级的背景下,深入研究技术创新视角下人口老龄化对产业结构调整的影响,对我国有效应对人口老龄化问题、推动产业结构优化调整有重大的理论意义和实践价值。结合以往研究来看,尽管学术界正不断深入研究人口老龄化问题,但大多致力于社保、医疗保健、长期护理等方面,对于人口老龄化带来的经济效应研究较少,尤其是有关人口老龄化是阻碍还是促进产业结构优化调整,学术界尚未达成统一的结论;学者们也较少将产业结构调整的关键因素技术创新,纳入到人口老龄化与产业结构调整的研究框架。因此,本文试图探索人口老龄化、技术创新对产业结构调整的影响效应。首先对人口老龄化、产业结构调整以及人口老龄化、技术创新影响产业结构调整的现有研究进行梳理和总结,明确当前的研究现状;随后概述中国人口老龄化、产业结构的现实状况及发展趋势,并分析人口老龄化影响产业结构调整、人口老龄化影响技术创新、人口老龄化通过技术创新影响产业结构调整的作用机理和区域异质性;基于现状分析和机理分析提出研究假设;最后采用1998-2018年中国省级面板数据,分全国层面和东、中、西部地区,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型等进行实证分析,并对中介效应模型进行稳健性检验,以得到较为可靠的研究结果。本研究发现:(1)人口老龄化通过劳动力供给、消费需求、劳动生产率、老龄负担等影响产业结构调整,总效应是正向促进作用;(2)人口老龄化通过人力资本积累和消费升级促进技术创新;(3)人口老龄化通过技术创新的劳动力替代效应、人力资本积累效应、消费需求效应等中介效应推动产业结构调整;(4)人口老龄化、技术创新对产业结构调整的影响具有区域异质性。针对研究结论,本文得出有效应对人口老龄化和促进产业结构优化调整的相关启示,期望为政府有关部门制定产业经济规划提供参考,让我国能够抓住人口老龄化的经济效益,依靠创新驱动持续推进产业结构优化调整。更多还原

【Abstract】 History and international experience show that population aging is an inevitable trend of social economic development,which will affect the labor supply,consumer demand,and industrial structure of a country or region.Although China entered aging society relatively late,it grows rapidly and has a large elderly population.The proportion of the elderly population now exceeds that of most developed countries.Population aging cannot be ignored.At the same time,China has long occupied laborintensive industries,relying on the comparative advantage of the demographic dividend,but population aging has brought about labor shortages and rising labor costs,reducing the profit of labor-intensive industries.The traditional development model is unsustainable.At present,China has entered a stage of high-quality development,taking innovation as the core driving force of economic growth,using technological innovation to promote industrial development,and striving to build a modern industrial system.However,problems such as insufficient ability for independent innovation,unbalanced development of the three major industries,and irrational internal structure of the industry,have become prominent.China’s industrial structure adjustment faces both major opportunities and severe challenges.Therefore,in the context of the gradual deepening of population aging,the in-depth implementation of innovationdriven strategies,and the urgent need of industrial structure upgrading,researching the impact of population aging on industrial structure adjustment from the perspective of technological innovation,has great theoretical and practical value for my country to effectively respond to population aging and promote industrial structure adjustment.According to previous studies,although the academic community is constantly studying the issue of population aging,most of them are committed to social security,medical care,long-term care,etc.,and there is little research on the economic effects of population aging.Especially with regard to the question of whether population aging hinders or promotes industrial structure adjustment,the academic community has not yet reached a unified conclusion.Scholars also rarely incorporate technological innovation,the key factor of industrial structure adjustment,into the research of population aging and industrial structure adjustment.Therefore,this study intends to explore the effects of population aging and technological innovation on industrial structure adjustment.First,this study sorts out and summarizes the existing research on population aging,industrial structure adjustment and population aging,technological innovation affecting industrial structure adjustment,to clarify the current research status.Then this study describes the current situation and development trend of China’s population aging and industrial structure;analyzes the mechanism of population aging affecting industrial structure adjustment,population aging affecting technological innovation,population aging affecting industrial structure adjustment through technological innovation,and regional heterogeneity.Simultaneously,based on current situation analysis and mechanism analysis,this study proposes research hypotheses.Finally,this study uses China’s provincial panel data from 1998 to 2018,using fixed effects models,mediation effects models,etc.to conduct empirical analysis,and conduct robustness tests to obtain more reliable research results.This study finds:(1)Population aging affects industrial structure adjustment through labor supply,consumer demand,labor productivity,and aging burden.The overall effect is a positive promotion.(2)Population aging promotes technological innovation through human capital accumulation and consumption upgrades.(3)Population aging promotes industrial structure adjustment through the intermediary effects of technological innovation,such as labor substitution effect,human capital accumulation effect,and consume demand effect.(4)There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of population aging and technological innovation on industrial structure adjustment.This study also draws some relevant enlightenments for effectively coping with population aging and promoting industrial structure adjustment,hoping to provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate industrial economic plans,so that my country can seize the economic benefits of population aging and rely on innovation to promote industrial structure adjustment.更多还原