【作者】 高洁；

【导师】 余长林；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 金融学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,实际汇率受到了许多学者的广泛关注,它是直接调整贸易差额的重要手段,因为它在消除通货膨胀因素后起着通货膨胀指数的作用。纵观我国的各历史时期,汇率制度对外贸的发展发挥了不同的作用。能在全新世界经济形势下继续保持中国进出口贸易及中国经济的持续提升,引发了国家相关部门及众多专家学者的研究兴趣。正因为此,“丝绸之路经济带”倡议于2013年9月首次被习总书记提出。中国与“一带一路”各国的贸易占比与总额从以往的贸易数据来看也是在不断走高,出口产品和形式也在持续变化。我国和“一带一路”沿线国家贸易对不同时期人民币汇率的影响表现出不同的特征。在2005年进行了第三次汇率改革后,人民币在市场的作用下逐渐形成了与以往不同的汇率机制,外贸发展和汇率变动的关系也日益密切。本文首先基于国内外学者的相关研究成果和理论基础,分析人民币汇率制度发展史和对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口贸易现状,研究人民币实际汇率对出口贸易的影响机制,为后文的研究奠定了理论基础。其次,在实证分析时,选取2009-2019年的71家“一带一路”沿线城市为研究数据,从出口价格、出口贸易比重两个方面出发,以人民币实际汇率为自变量,出口价格和出口贸易比重为因变量,构建面板数据回归模型,分析人民币实际汇率对出口价格、出口贸易比重。最后本文得出以下结论:(1)人民币实际汇率与我国制造业出口价格之间具有显著负向关系,且对不同一带一路国家的影响具有显著差异性。(2)人民币实际汇率、国内劳动报酬及资本报酬均与我国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业的出口比重之间有显著负向关系,而进口国国民收入的增加与我国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业的出口比重有显著正向关系。(3)人民币实际汇率对各类要素集中度制造业的出口贸易比重影响系数差异较大,其中技术密集型制造业影响系数最小。针对文中的研究结论,提出完善人民币汇率机制、促进人民币国际化、增强制造业技术创新能力等建议,促进我国制造业出口贸易和经济的良好发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the real exchange rate has been received great attention from many scholars because,as a indicator of price exchange excluding inflation and other factors,it can be a important means of adjusting balance trade.Throughout different periods of history in our country,the exchange rate arrangement has different functions with each other.It has been received great attention how to retain the continuous development of international trade in order to boost the economy under the new economic trend.As a result,the Silk Road Economic Belt has been put forward on September 7,2013.According to the status quo of international trade in recent decade,the proportion and total volume of foreign trade with countries involved in the One Belt One Road are constantly increasing with the adaptation and innovation of the composition of trade.Those countries and China all display a variety of characteristics in different period of RMB exchange rate.With three reforms of exchange rate,the exchange rate of RMB is becoming more marketized and the relationship between the fluctuation of exchange rate and the development of foreign trade is getting closer.Based on the relevant research results and theoretical foundations of domestic and foreign scholars,this article analyzes the history of the development of the RMB exchange rate system and the status quo of export trade to the countries along the"Belt and Road" manufacturing industry,and does some research on the effect of the RMB real exchange rate on export trade.Laid the theoretical foundation.Secondly,in the empirical analysis,71 cities along the "Belt and Road" from 2009 to 2019 are selected as research data,starting from the export price and the proportion of export trade,with the actual exchange rate of RMB as the independent variable,export price and export trade The proportion is the dependent variable,and a panel data regression model is constructed to analyze the real exchange rate of the RMB to the export price and export trade proportion.Finally,this article draws the following conclusions:(1)There is a significant negative relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB and the export price of my country’s manufacturing industry,and the impact on different Belt and Road countries is significantly different.(2)There is a significant negative relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB,domestic labor remuneration and capital remuneration and my country’s export share of manufacturing industries along the "Belt and Road" countries.The increase in the national income of importing countries is related to my country’s contribution to the"Belt and Road" initiative.The export share of the manufacturing industries of countries along the route has a significant positive relationship.(3)The real exchange rate of RMB has a large difference in the influence coefficient of the export trade proportion of various factor concentration manufacturing industries,and the influence coefficient of technology-intensive manufacturing is the smallest.In response to the research conclusions in the article,and enhance the technological innovation capabilities of the manufacturing industry,so as to promote the sound development of my country’s manufacturing export trade and economy.更多还原