【作者】 陈荣；

【导师】 黄燕萍；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 区域经济学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代中期以前,台湾因维持了将近三十年非常高的经济增长率和极小的贫富差距而获得“经济奇迹”的赞誉。1987年台湾“解严”,政治体制开始由威权走向西式民主,之后经济增长日渐乏力,2000年以来更是陷入常态性的低增长困境。研究台湾政治体制变迁对经济增长的影响,不仅有助于丰富和拓展制度与经济增长关系的理论研究,为政治体制影响经济增长的研究贡献“台湾案例”,而且有助于更加客观地认识台湾地区西式民主体制的本质。本文首先回顾了政治体制与经济增长领域的相关理论与文献,描述了台湾地区1949年至今的政治变迁与经济发展历程。然后基于内生增长理论,通过理论模型改进与实证检验分析了台湾政治变迁对经济增长的影响,发现台湾政治变迁对物质资本存量及技术进步产生负向作用、对劳动人口产生正向作用,进而影响经济增长。结合实证结果与事实观察,本文从物质资本、技术进步与劳动人口三个层面综合分析了台湾政治变迁对经济增长的影响机理。本文认为,台湾政治变迁对物质资本的作用机理主要体现在降低政治稳定性、即时消费挤出、利益集团施压以及政党轮替带来的两岸关系波动;对技术进步的作用机理主要体现在教育改革导致人力资本质量下降,推动投资自由但产业结构单一以及政党为自身利益阻碍两岸科技交流与产业合作;劳动人口方面,西式民主通过提高女性劳动参与率使得劳动人口在短期内得到提升,但从长期来看,生育率不足将导致台湾少子化、老龄化与劳动力短缺等问题日益严重。因此,本文认为,台湾政治变迁通过物质资本与技术进步对其经济增长产生负向作用,从长期来看亦对劳动人口产生负向影响,从而阻碍经济增长。基于以上分析,本文最后对研究结论进行了总结,并提出了研究展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Before the mid-1980s,Taiwan was praised as an "economic miracle" for maintaining a very high economic growth rate and a very small gap between the rich and the poor for nearly three decades.Martial law was lifted in Taiwan in 1987,and the political system began to shift from authoritarianism to Western-style democracy.Since then,economic growth has gradually weakened,and since 2000,it has fallen into a normal low-growth dilemma.Studying the impact of Taiwan’s political system from authoritarianism to Western-style democracy on its economic growth will not only help enrich and expand theoretical research on the relationship between the system and economic growth,but also contribute to the "Taiwan case" research on the political system’s impact on economic growth.Get a more objective understanding of the essence of the Western-style democratic system in Taiwan.This paper first reviews the relevant theories and literature in the field of political system and economic growth,and summarizes the political transition and economic development of Taiwan from 1949 to the present.On this basis,based on the theory of endogenous growth,this paper analyzes the impact of Taiwan’s political transition on economic growth through model derivation and empirical testing,and finds that Taiwan’s political transition have a negative effect on the stock of material capital and technological progress,and have a positive effect on the working population,which affects economic growth.Combining empirical results and factual observations,this paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of Taiwan’s political transition on economic growth from three levels of material capital,technological progress,and labor force.Research suggests that the impact of Taiwan’s political transition on material capital is mainly reflected in the reduction of political stability,promotion of instant consumption,pressure from interest groups,and fluctuations in cross-strait relations caused by the rotation of political parties;the impact on technological progress is mainly reflected in the decline in the quality of human capital caused by education reforms,the promotion of investment freedom but the single industrial structure and political parties hindering cross-strait scientific and technological exchanges and industrial cooperation for their own interests.In terms of the labor force,increasing the education level and labor participation rate of women will increase the labor force in the short term.However,in the long run,the insufficient fertility rate will lead to increasingly serious problems such as declining birthrate,aging and labor shortage in Taiwan.Therefore,this paper believes that Taiwan’s political transition have a negative effect on economic growth through material capital and technological progress,and in the long run it also has a negative effect on the labor force,thus hindering economic growth.Based on the above analysis,this paper summarizes the research conclusions and puts forward the prospect of research.更多还原