【作者】 程燕；

【导师】 杨冕；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 中国的城镇化率从1978年的17.9%增长至2018年的59.58%,城镇化建设取得了显著的成就。在人口、工业向城市集聚和城市扩张的同时,雾霾天气也频频出现。近年来,雾霾污染发生频率高、扩散范围大,严重影响了交通安全、经济发展和人们的身心健康。雾霾污染经常是长时间、大范围地出现,为了探究邻近地区的雾霾污染是否有某种关联,雾霾污染的影响因素以及城镇化推进与雾霾污染存在什么关系,本文展开相关的研究。本文以中国285个地级及以上城市为研究对象,探讨了我国2003～2016年PM_2.5的时空分布,以城镇化率为核心解释变量,加入人均GDP、二产占比、外商直接投资、科技投入和交通运输强度等五个控制变量,运用空间探索性分析、空间计量和门槛计量分析全国层面以及高、中、低排放区的城镇化率对PM_2.5浓度的影响。研究分析表明我国地级及以上城市的城镇化率在研究期间内呈上升趋势,PM_2.5浓度整体上呈现先减缓又加重的时间趋势,空间分布上呈东高西低、北高南低态势。我国城市的PM_2.5浓度具有空间溢出效应。PM_2.5浓度的高-高聚集区（HH）集中在京津冀、江浙沪和中部省份的部分城市,低-低聚集区（LL）集中在西部省份的部分城市。空间计量结果显示我国城镇化率、二产占比、外商直接投资、科技投入和交通运输强度与PM_2.5浓度正相关,人均GDP与PM_2.5浓度负相关。高排放区城镇化率、人均GDP与PM_2.5浓度负相关,二产占比、外商直接投资和科技投入与PM_2.5浓度正相关。中排放区城镇化率、二产占比、外商直接投资和交通运输强度与PM_2.5浓度正相关,人均GDP和科技投入与PM_2.5浓度负相关。低排放区城镇化率、二产占比、外商直接投资、科技投入和交通运输强度与PM_2.5浓度正相关,人均GDP与PM_2.5浓度负相关。门槛回归结果显示全国层面,城镇化率对PM_2.5浓度具有正向的双重门槛作用,且正向影响递增。高排放区城镇化率对PM_2.5浓度的作用先是正向的,跨越第二道门槛以后转为负向。中、低排放区的城镇化率对PM_2.5浓度分别具有负向以及正向的双重门槛作用。全国层面,二产占比和交通运输强度对城镇化率与PM_2.5浓度关系具有正向的双重门槛作用,且跨越门槛值后,正向作用逐渐降低。根据本文的分析结果,推进城镇化的过程中,应尽量减少对空气环境的污染。降低雾霾污染还应优化产业结构,提升绿色技术水平,使用清洁能源,避免成为外资的“污染避难所”。不同城市应结合本地实际情况及开展市级合作,进行防霾治霾。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s urbanization has made remarkable achievements.The urbanization rate has increased from 17.9%in 1978 to 59.58%in 2018.With the concentration of population and industry to the city and the expansion of the city,haze weather has also appeared frequently.In recent years,the frequency of haze pollution is high and the scope of diffusion is large,which has a serious impact on traffic safety,economic development and people’s physical and mental health.Haze pollution often occurs over a long period of time and on a large scale.In order to discover the correlation of haze pollution in the neighboring areas,the influencing factors of haze pollution and the relationship between urbanization and haze pollution,this dissertation has carried out related research.This dissertation takes 285 prefecture-level and above cities as the research object,and discusses the spatial and temporal distribution of PM_2.5 in China from 2003 to 2016.The urbanization rate is the core explanatory variable.The per capita GDP,ratio of secondary production,foreign direct investment,science and technology input and transportation intensity are the control varibels.This dissertation use spatial exploratory analysis,spatial econometrics and threshold econometrics to analyze the impact of urbanization rate on PM_2.5 concentration at the national level and high,medium and low emission areas.The research shows that the urbanization rate of prefecture-level and above cities shows an upward trend during the study period.The PM_2.5 concentration shows a trend of slowing down and then aggravating in the study period.The spatial distribution is that the east and north is high,the west and south is low.The research shows that PM_2.5concentration in China’s cities has a spatial spillover effect.The high-high accumulation zone（HH）of PM_2.5 concentration is concentrated in Beijing,Tianjin and some cities in Hebei,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and central provinces.Low-low accumulation areas（LL）are concentrated in some cities in the western provinces.The spatial empirical results show that China’s urbanization rate,the ratio of secondary production,foreign direct investment,technology investment and transportation intensity are positively correlated with PM_2.5 concentration,and per capita GDP is negatively correlated with PM_2.5 concentration.In high emission areas,the urbanization rate and per capita GDP are negatively correlated with PM_2.5 concentration,and the ratio of secondary production,foreign direct investment and technology investment are positively correlated with PM_2.5 concentration.In the middle emission areas,the urbanization rate,the ratio of secondary production,foreign direct investment and transportation intensity are positively correlated with the PM_2.5concentration,and the per capita GDP and technology investment are negatively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration.In the low emission areas,the urbanization rate,the secondary production,the foreign direct investment,technology investment and the transportation intensity are positively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration,and the per capita GDP is negatively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration.At the national level,the urbanization rate has a positive double threshold effect on PM_2.5concentration,and the positive impact is increasing.The effect of urbanization rate of high emission area on PM_2.5 concentration is positive firstly,and it turns negative after crossing the second threshold.The urbanization rate of the middle and low emission zones has a negative and positive double threshold effect on the PM_2.5 concentration insperately.At the national level,the secondary production and the intensity of transportation have a positive double threshold for the relationship between urbanization rate and PM_2.5 concentration,and the positive effect gradually decreases after crossing the threshold.According to the analysis results of this dissertation,in the process of promoting urbanization,we should minimize the air pollution.To reduce haze pollution,we should also optimize the industrial structure,upgrade the level of green technology,use clean energy,and avoid becoming a“pollution shelter”for foreign investment.Different regions should carry out flood prevention and treatment work in light of local actual conditions.Local governments should also carry out inter-city cooperation,formulate regional flood control and prevention programs,and achieve rational allocation of regional resources.更多还原