【作者】 张悦；

【导师】 徐永利；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 理论经济学， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 作为发展中国家和新兴经济体的代表,金砖国家贸易状况的演变,对世界贸易格局的影响不容小觑。而在贸易产品种类方面,制造业产品贸易在金砖国家贸易中已经占据重要位置,但产业内贸易水平有待提升,贸易结构仍需改善。本文希望通过对金砖国家制造业产业内贸易状况的研究,为金砖国家深化制造业贸易合作提供参考。尽管中国与其他金砖国家之间制造业贸易额量大增速快,但贸易结构是否合理是一个值得研究的问题。本文在对制造业贸易额的时间序列进行简单分析的基础上,综合运用多种指数对中国与其他金国家制造业的产业内贸易水平与结构进行分析,并将制造业按照要素密集程度进行分类,据此分析制造业在何种要素产品上具有一定优势。通过灰色关联分析法和固定效应模型研究制造业产业内贸易大小以及结构的影响因素。结果表明,中国与其他金砖四国的制造业贸易主要集中在资本技术密集型制造业,相较与世界的贸易,中国与其他金砖国家在制造业方面的贸易合作有待加强。同时,不论是从贸易结构还是从产业内贸易对贸易额的贡献程度来看,中国与其他金砖国家的产业内贸易状况都明显不及发达国家;而具体到金砖国家内部,中国与其他金砖国家在资本技术密集型制造业的发展状况普遍优于在劳动密集型制造业的发展状况。影响因素的研究结果表明,不论是对整体制造业产业内贸易、劳动密集型、资本技术密集型制造业产业内贸易,还是垂直型、水平型产业内贸易,贸易结合度指数、外商直接投资的影响都是非常显著的,而对不同类型产业内贸易来说,人均收入差异、官方汇率、其他金砖四国就业率、其他金砖四国每十万人专利申请量等因素的影响是不同的。最后根据前文的实证分析,对促进中国与其他金砖国家制造业产业内贸易水平提升与结构改善方面提供一些建议,主要包括发挥比较优势,提升贸易结合度;开展新兴产业领域合作,提高水平型产业内贸易水平;发挥金砖机制与平台作用等。更多还原

【Abstract】 As representatives of developing countries and emerging economies,the evolution of the trade situation of the BRICS countries should not be underestimated.In terms of trade products,the trade of manufactured products has occupied an important position in the trade between the BRICS countries,but the level of intra-industry trade of this industry needs to be improved,and the trade structure also needs to be improved.This paper hopes to provide references for the BRICS countries to deepen manufacturing trade cooperation through research on the trade situation within the manufacturing industry of the BRICS countries.Despite the large volume and rapid growth of manufacturing trade between China and other BRICS countries,whether the trade structure is reasonable is a problem worthy of study.Based on the simple analysis of the time series of manufacturing trade volume,this paper comprehensively uses a variety of indexes to analyze the level and structure of intra industry trade between China and other gold countries,and classifies the manufacturing industry according to the degree of factor intensity,so as to analyze what factor products the manufacturing industry has certain advantages.This paper studies the influencing factors of the size and structure of intra industry trade in manufacturing industry through grey correlation analysis and fixed effect model.The results show that the manufacturing trade between China and other BRICS countries is mainly concentrated in capital and technology intensive manufacturing.Compared with the trade with the world,the trade cooperation between China and other BRICS countries in manufacturing needs to be strengthened.At the same time,whether in terms of trade structure or the contribution of intra industry trade to trade volume,the intra industry trade between China and other BRICS countries is significantly lower than that of developed countries;Specifically,within the BRICS countries,the development of capital technology intensive manufacturing industry in China and other BRICS countries is generally better than that in labor-intensive manufacturing industry.The research results of influencing factors show that the impact of trade integration index and foreign direct investment on the intra industry trade of overall manufacturing industry,labor-intensive,capital technology intensive manufacturing industry,vertical and horizontal intra industry trade is very significant.For different types of intra industry trade,the difference of per capita income,official exchange rate,employment rate of other BRICS countries The impact of other BRICS countries on patent applications per 100000 people is different.Finally,according to the previous empirical analysis,this paper provides some suggestions on promoting the improvement of intra industry trade level and structure between China and other BRICS countries,mainly including giving full play to comparative advantages and improving trade integration;Carry out cooperation in emerging industries and improve the level of intra industry trade;Give full play to the role of BRICS mechanism and platform.更多还原