【作者】 李超；

【导师】 孙艳丽； 祝爱民；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳建筑大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 2020年新冠疫情的突然爆发,给社会各界各业带来了沉重的打击,如餐饮、交通、养殖、旅游、房地产、电影业更是经济打击的“重灾区”,为了防止疫情的传播,各地在疫情的初期都采取了隔离措施:道路截断、外来人员及与疫情相关工作者隔离等,这就导致一些无法生活自理老人不能及时得到子女的照料,正常的生活起居、生病就医等等的都带来不便。虽然目前疫情得到控制,不再采取隔离,但这一问题并没有从根本上彻底解决,因此在后疫情时代采取有效的、有针对性的养老措施势在必行。但现阶段的养老地产项目建设从可研、融资、立项、建设、建成后的运营养老服务各个阶段都存在着不同的风险因素,这大大阻碍了各地养老项目的建设和推广。本文以沈阳市A养老地产项目建设为实例,以社会网络分析理论为基础,对其项目建设过程中的参与者进行分析,根据参与者对该项目建设中所起的作用大小,识别出9类主要参与者。并在现有研究成果的基础上进行比较总结,识别出与主要参与者密切相关的风险因素,共计27个,建立最终风险清单。在其基础上,设计调查问卷,通过文献法和经验数据法来判断风险因素的影响关系。对得到的数据进行二次调研,最终确定风险网络邻接矩阵,同时运用Ucinet中的Net Draw工具对邻接矩阵可视化,由此构建出沈阳市A养老地产项目风险网络模型。利用图论的相关知识对该模型进行网络密度、小世界、中心性分析、风险网络连接枢纽分析,研究与主要参与者相关的风险因素在整个风险网络中的传递性与影响性,并据此总结出对风险网络有重要影响力的风险源特质、连接枢纽特质的因素。然后从风险网络中分别去掉这两类风险因素,运用网络密度、聚类系数、平均可达距离等指标,观察其是否在整个风险网络起到重要作用。最终结合沈阳市老龄化现状,对各主要参与者提出相应的风险应对措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 brought a heavy blow to all sectors of the society,such as catering,transportation,farming,tourism,real estate and film industry.It is also the "worst hit area" for economic attack.In order to prevent the spread of the epidemic,all regions adopted isolation measures at the early stage of the epidemic: Road truncation,outsiders and isolation from the workers involved in the epidemic.This leads to some elderly people who can’t take care of themselves,can’t get the care of their children in time,and bring inconvenience to their normal daily life,sick medical treatment and so on.Although the epidemic situation has been controlled and isolation is no longer adopted,this problem has not been fundamentally solved.Therefore,it is imperative to take effective and targeted elderly care measures in the post epidemic era.However,at this stage,there are different risk factors in the construction of pension real estate projects from feasibility study,financing,project establishment,construction and operation of pension services after completion,which greatly hinders the construction and promotion of pension projects around the country.Taking the construction of a pension real estate project in Shenyang as an example,this thesis analyzes the participants in the project construction process,and identifies 9 types of main participants according to the role of participants in the project construction.Based on the existing research results,27 risk factors closely related to the main participants are identified,and the final risk list is established.On this basis,a questionnaire is designed to judge the influence relationship of risk factors through literature method and empirical data method.Conduct secondary investigation on the obtained data,finally determine the risk network adjacency matrix,and visualize the adjacency matrix by using Netdraw tool in UCINET,so as to construct the risk network model of a pension real estate project in Shenyang.Using the relevant knowledge of graph theory,this thesis analyzes the centrality of the model and the connection hub of the risk network,studies the transmission and influence of the risk factors related to the main participants in the whole risk network,and summarizes the risk source characteristics and connection hub characteristics that have important influence on the risk network.Then remove these two types of risk factors from the risk network,use the network density,clustering coefficient and other indicators,and then detect the risk network elements.According to the network density and clustering coefficient,see whether they play an important role in the whole risk network.Finally,combined with the current situation of aging in Shenyang,the corresponding risk response measures are put forward for the main participants.更多还原