【作者】 刘阳；

【导师】 贾俊芳；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 空铁联运是高铁与航空不断求同存异发展所导向的必然结果,越来越多的旅客在中长途出行时倾向于空铁联运产品,使得高铁与航空之间的积极配合越发重要。目前,我国空铁联运正处于初级阶段,大部分空铁联运产品只是“高铁+航空”运输方式的表面组合,缺乏对旅客选择行为的深度考虑,未能真正满足旅客需求。因此,本文聚焦旅客在空铁复合时空网络中的出行路径选择。在考虑旅客跨城市远距离出行全过程的基础上,构建空间-时间-交通方式三维结合的空铁复合时空网络;引入更好刻画旅客心理的后悔理论,基于后悔最小化规则,提出考虑旅客异质性和出行特征异质性的路径选择模型,以有效解释不同旅客在不同出行场景下的路径选择异质性,更真实地探究旅客出行需求,促进空铁运输企业有效合作,推动现代综合交通运输体系的发展。本文的主要工作包括:(1)空铁复合时空网络构建。分析旅客出行全过程,构建兼顾程前接驳、中途换乘、程后接驳的空铁复合物理拓扑网络,通过引入时间维度,将空间节点、空间弧拓展为时空节点、时空弧,从而构建时间-空间-交通方式三维融合的空铁复合时空网络,并提出该网络中有效路径的筛选规则,最终确定有效时空路径。(2)旅客路径选择行为分析。借助行为决策理论构建路径选择行为架构,分析影响因素和决策规则对选择结果的影响机理。对比基于效用规则和后悔规则的选择模型,从模型理论、决策过程、实际案例标定等角度揭示基于有限理性理论的广义后悔最小化模型可以更好地刻画旅客的选择行为,考虑到既有广义随机后悔最小化模型的不足,引入韦伯定律对其进行改进。(3)基于后悔理论的路径选择模型构建。考虑旅客感知便捷性和感知可靠性对其路径选择结果的影响,建立MIMIC模型量化不同出行方式下的旅客心理潜变量,将量化后的心理潜变量作为决策变量,与旅客个人因素、出行特征因素和原有路径特征因素一同引入改进的广义随机后悔最小化模型,从而建立考虑旅客异质性和出行特征异质性的路径选择模型。设计路径选择行为实验,对所本文构建的路径选择模型进行标定,通过与未考虑异质性的模型标定结果进行对比,验证本文所建模型的有效性。(4)丹东-南京出行场景的实例研究。通过现有相关航班、车次数据,构建丹东-南京的空铁复合时空网络,确定备选时空路径集合,基于本文所构建的路径选择模型,探讨不同旅客在面临不同出行特征因素时,其路径选择行为的异质性,并基于此提出部分联运产品改进建议。图20幅,表34个,参考文献66篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 Air-rail combined transportation is the inevitable result of the continuous development of high-speed rail and aviation.More and more passengers tend to prefer air-rail combined transportation products when traveling in medium and long distances,which makes the active cooperation between high-speed rail and aviation more and more important.At present,China’s air-rail combined transport is in its initial stage,and most air-rail combined transport products are only the superficial combination of "high-speed rail + aviation" operation mode,lacking in-depth consideration of passenger travel demand.Therefore,this paper focuses on the travel route choice of passengers in the air-rail composite space-time network.Considering passengers across the city of long distance travel process,on the basis of building space-time-three dimensional transportation empty tin compound time-space network,based on regret minimization rule,proposed to consider the heterogeneity and travel characteristics of heterogeneous route choice model,under different passenger travel in different scenarios to effectively explain the path selection of heterogeneity,Explore the travel needs of passengers more truly,help the supply of high-quality air-rail combined transportation products,and promote the development of modern comprehensive transportation system.The main work of this paper includes:(1)Construction of air-iron composite space-time network.Analysis of the whole process of passenger travel,pay attention to the building before transferring and empty tin compound after the transfer,process the connection through physical topology of the network,with the introduction of time dimension,the space node,arc expand space for time and space,time and space of arc,so as to build the empty tin compound time-space network,and put forward effective path from the Angle of time space double filtering rules,ultimately determine the effective path of time and space.(2)Behavior analysis of passengers’ route choice.Based on behavioral decision theory,the behavioral framework of path choice is constructed and the influencing mechanism of influencing factors and decision rules on choice results is analyzed.Comparison based on rules and regret the choice of the utility model,the model theory,the decision making process,and the calibration of actual case revealed based on the bounded rationality theory of generalized regret minimization model can better depict passengers’ choice behavior,considering both the generalized random regret minimization model is insufficient,the introduction of weber’s law to improve.(3)Path choice model construction based on regret theory.Consideration of psychological factors such as passenger perception attitude on the result of the path selection,MIMIC model is set up to quantify different travel modes passenger psychological latent variables,the psychological latent variables after quantitative as decision variables,and the personal factor,travel characteristic factors and the path of the original features with introducing the improved generalized random regret minimization model,Thus,a route selection model considering passenger heterogeneity and trip characteristics heterogeneity is established.The path choice behavior experiment was designed to calibrate the path choice model constructed in this paper,and the calibration results were compared with the benchmark model to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the model built in this paper.(4)Case study of Dandong-Nanjing travel scenario.Based on the route choice model constructed in this paper,a practical travel scenario between Dandong and Nanjing is taken as an example to explore the heterogeneity of passengers’ choice under different travel characteristics when facing different travel routes in the air-rail composite spacetime network.This paper includes 20 figures,34 tables and 66 references.更多还原