【作者】 李欣；

【导师】 蒋文明； 徐永翔；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学(华东) ， 石油与天然气工程（专业学位）， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 从我国现有原油管道来看,我国大部分长输原油管道,都途径一些地形地质条件十分复杂的地区,这些地区受到第三方破坏、腐蚀、自然灾害等因素的影响,原油管道经常发生破裂穿孔,对我国原油工业的发展产生了非常不利的影响。它不仅会造成巨大的经济损失,而且会产生非常严重的社会影响。因此,对原油管道进行风险评价,找出原油管道事故的原因,采取预防措施,减少原油管道的经济损失,具有重要的现实意义。研究开发管道风险管理预警系统,制定科学合理的应急预案,无疑是保证原油管道安全运行的重要途径。科学有效地保证原油管道安全、稳定、高效运行,对原油管道运行风险管理具有重要意义。与其他运输方式相比,油气管道运输拥有更多优势,是未来油气运输的重要途径。如果发生多条管道事故,巨大的经济损失和环境污染都将不可避免,甚至还会产生重大人员伤亡事件,因此在今后需要更加重视和防范,再三确保管道输油安全,管道完整性管理技术的应用对确保管道高效安全运行、促进经济发展具有重要意义。具体包括以下几个方面:(1)经过众多相关学者和管道公司的不断发展和完善,国内外的研究进展已经发展出各种不同标准和适用性的评价方法。(2)本文从管道风险评估技术的理论、研究对象、分类和选择等方面对故障树分析法和RBI技术进行了详细的阐述。(3)原油管道输送失效概率分析,采用概率分布函数和概率密度函数对失效概率进行定量计算;其次,本文结合管道不同破坏机理,详细介绍了因管道修正系数而产生的影响,并分析了三种损伤因素对管道破坏的影响;随后,根据可靠性理论的相应公式,从检验有效性等方面入手并且对管道的失效模式进行评价。最后,利用管理系统的总损耗系数和修正系数,得出修正管道的实际失效概率。(4)应用故障树分析原理,建立起原油输送管道风险评估的故障树模型。并针对大庆-哈尔滨新建原油输送管道,进行定性分析以及定量计算,从而识别出引起大庆-哈尔滨新建原油输送管道风险的主要影响因素,提出相应的防治对策。(5)结合案例分析,运用RBI技术对大庆—哈尔滨原油管道的故障可能性和后果进行分析和评估,根据风险值确定风险等级,对不同风险等级的设备和管道制定相应的检查计划。通过相应的经济有效措施,减轻后果,降低风险,成功识别出造成大庆-哈尔滨新原油管道的主要风险因素。最后针对大庆-哈尔滨新建原油输送管道风险提出相应的防治对策。对基于故障树法和RBI风险评价法进行对比分析,最后的对比分析结果发现,基于RBI法的原油输送管道风险评价方法比较科学。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the perspective of the existing crude oil pipelines in China,most of the long-distance crude oil pipelines in China go through some areas with very complex topographical and geological conditions.These areas are affected by the third-party damage,corrosion,natural disasters and other factors.The rupture and perforation of crude oil pipelines often occur,which has a very adverse impact on the development of China’s crude oil industry.It will not only cause huge economic losses,but also have a very serious social impact.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to evaluate the risk of crude oil pipeline,find out the causes of crude oil pipeline accidents,take preventive measures and reduce the economic losses of crude oil pipeline.The research and development of pipeline risk management early warning system and the formulation of scientific and reasonable emergency plan are undoubtedly important ways to ensure the safe operation of crude oil pipeline.Scientific and effective guarantee of safe,stable and efficient operation of crude oil pipeline is of great significance to the risk management of crude oil pipeline operation.Compared with other transportation methods,oil and gas pipeline transportation has more advantages and is an important way for future oil and gas transportation.If there are multiple pipeline accidents,huge economic losses and environmental pollution will be unavoidable,and even major casualties will occur.Therefore,more attention and prevention are needed in the future to ensure the safety of pipeline transportation and the integrity of pipeline integrity management technology.Application is of great significance to ensure efficient and safe operation of the pipeline and promote economic development.It includes the following aspects:(1)After the continuous development and improvement of many related scholars and pipeline companies,with the development and improvement of many scientists and pipeline companies,research progress at home and abroad has developed various evaluation methods for different standards and applicability.(2)This paper describes the fault tree analysis method and RBI technology in detail from the aspects of pipeline risk assessment technology theory,research objects,classification and selection,etc.(3)Failure probability analysis of crude oil pipeline.For the quantitative calculation of failure probability,the probability distribution function and probability density function are used to express the failure strength function.A point estimation method using Weibull distribution functions to calculate similar failure probabilities and a maximum likelihood method to estimate Weibull distribution parameters are introduced in detail.Secondly,the influence of pipeline correction coefficient is introduced,and combined with the different failure mechanism of pipeline,the influence of three damage factors on pipeline failure is analyzed,and the corresponding limit state equation is obtained from the stress strength interference model.Then,the failure mode of the pipeline is evaluated from the perspective of validity test by using the relevant formula of reliability theory and the statistical method of Bayes theorem.Finally,the total damage factor and management system correction factor are used to correct the actual failure probability of the pipeline.Based on the principle of fault tree analysis,a fault tree model for risk assessment of crude oil pipeline is established.And for Daqing Harbin new crude oil pipeline,qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation are carried out,so as to identify the main factors that cause the risk of Daqing Harbin new crude oil pipeline.(4)Combined with case analysis,use RBI technology to analyze and evaluate the possibility and consequences of the failure of the Daqing-Harbin crude oil pipeline,determine the risk level according to the risk value,and formulate corresponding inspection plans for equipment and pipelines of different risk levels.Through the corresponding economic and effective measures,the consequences and risks were mitigated,and the main risk factors that caused the Daqing-Harbin new crude oil pipeline were successfully identified.(5)Finally,corresponding countermeasures are proposed for the risks of the newly-built crude oil pipeline from Daqing to Harbin.The comparative analysis based on the fault tree method and the RBI risk assessment method is carried out.The final comparative analysis results show that the risk assessment method of the crude oil pipeline based on the RBI method is more scientific.更多还原