【作者】 林丽；

【导师】 程发新；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 物流工程（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 新能源汽车的发展减少了汽车行业对自然资源的依赖,缓解了日益突出的环境污染与资源短缺问题。我国新能源汽车正处于初级阶段向中高级阶段迈进的发展阶段,新能源汽车供应链体系不稳定,原材料供应不足、制造商产能与市场需求不相匹配以及供应链内部各节点企业合作关系松散等限制了新能源汽车行业的快速发展。促进供应链成员间合作关系管理,建立合理的契约协调机制是关键。新能源汽车供应链呈复杂的网络结构,成员的异质性导致了信息不对称以及差异化的利益诉求,使得供应链内部难以形成有效共识,相关协调机制运行效果有限。据此,本文将共识决策理论纳入到供应链契约协调研究领域,探究如何得到广泛支持的供应链契约协调最优方案问题,旨在建立合理的契约协调机制以密切成员间的合作关系,促进新能源汽车供应链的稳定发展。在激烈的市场竞争和不确定的动态环境中,信任能够促进供应链成员间的信息共享,为稳定供应链合作关系保驾护航。同时,供应链成员的损失厌恶行为偏好也会影响供应链契约协调方案的选择。行为主体在风险和不确定下,往往更加关注相对于参照点的感知价值,且在同等收益下对损失更加敏感。基于此,本文将损失厌恶纳入基于信任关系的共识决策模型,进而探索供应链契约协调问题。主要的研究工作如下:(1)构建基于信任关系的供应链契约协调共识决策模型,促进信息共享、消解分歧。文中首先将信任关系纳入到供应链契约协调当中构建共识决策模型,基于社会网络理论对供应链成员进行定量信任评估,利用信任关系构建反馈机制,进行信息交互从而促进信息共享。既有研究将共识决策模型应用于能源应急供应链协调优化中,这为本文提供了有益借鉴,但是其假设主体完全理性且忽视信任在供应链协调中的作用。研究发现,供应链成员更愿意参考信任权重较高成员的意见,尤其是决策过程中遇见分歧时,能够做出适当调整与让步,缓解矛盾从而促进合作。(2)构建信任关系下考虑损失厌恶的供应链契约协调共识决策模型,协调成员利益分歧、获得广泛支持的供应链契约。进一步拓展基于信任关系的供应链契约协调共识决策模型,纳入前景理论以刻画成员的损失厌恶行为,揭示了损失厌恶下对供应链契约协调方案选择的影响机理,而既有研究在共识决策中假设完全理性。通过共识决策模型在V公司供应链契约协调应用分析,发现供应链成员在损失厌恶行为下的供应链契约协调方案决策有着明显不同,基于前景理论衡量其感知价值可以放大这种差异,从而便于识别供应链成员的利益分歧,有利于促进共识达成。(3)以新能源汽车制造商V公司供应链为例,具体分析各供应链成员之间的信任关系,同时考虑损失厌恶行为,探究如何构建供应链契约共识协调模型,兼顾参与主体的偏好和利益诉求,协调分歧与矛盾,从而得到最优的供应链契约共识方案。新能源汽车制造商应加强与供应商的合作,采用共识协商的方式寻求广泛支持的供应链契约形式,及时调整并制定合理的契约协调矛盾与分歧,减少供应链中断。进一步加强供应链成员间信任机制的构建,促进私有信息的共享,整合新能源汽车供应链的资源并进行合理配置,及时发现脆弱节点,从而提高整个新能源汽车供应链的灵活性,促进新能源汽车供应链的可持续运营。现实新能源汽车供应链是一个多主体参与的社会网络,供应链成员不仅具有有限理性行为,还存在不同的私有信息,综合解析参与主体之间的博弈均衡难度非常大。据此,以共识决策视角探究供应链契约协调问题,并进一步考虑了供应链成员的信任关系以及损失厌恶行为对供应链契约制定的影响。这是对供应链协作管理理论的讨论范畴的拓展,为解决多主体下的供应链契约协调问题提供了一种新的思路,本文还考虑了不对称信息以及损失厌恶行为,通过构建共识决策模型得到成员满意且广泛支持的供应链契约协调方案,能够增强新能源汽车供应链中成员的参与积极性,促进供应链契约的有效实施,维持整个新能源汽车供应链的高效、可持续运营。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of new energy reduces the dependence of automobile industry on natural resources,and alleviates the increasingly prominent problems of environmental pollution and resource shortage.China’s new energy vehicles are in the development stage from the primary stage to the middle and advanced stage.The supply chain system of new energy vehicles is still unstable.What restrict the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry are: the shortage of raw materials,the mismatch between manufacturers’ production capacity and market demand,and the loose cooperation among enterprises.In order to promote the cooperative relationship management among supply chain members,constructing a reasonable contract coordination mechanism is the key.The supply chain of new energy vehicle presents a complex network structure,and the heterogeneity of its members leads to information asymmetry and differentiated interest demands,which makes it difficult to reach an effective consensus within the supply chain member and the inefficiency of the coordination mechanism.Therefore,from the perspective of consensus decision making,this study explores the supply chain contract coordination and aims to find how to get the most widely supported optimal supply chain contract.The purpose is to establish a reasonable contract coordination mechanism to close the cooperative relationship among members and promote the stable development of the supply chain of new energy vehicles.In the fierce market competition and uncertain dynamic environment,trust can promote information sharing among supply chain members and protect the stable supply chain cooperation.At the same time,the behavior preference of supply chain members will also affect the choice of supply chain contract coordination scheme.Under the risk and uncertainty,the behavior subject often pays more attention to the perceived value relative to the reference point,and is more sensitive to the loss under the same income.Based on this,this study including trust relationship and loss aversion behavior,and explores the research of supply chain contract coordination based on consensus decision.The specific research work is as follows:(1)Build a consensus decision model of supply chain contract coordination based on trust relationship to promote information sharing and resolve divergence.The extant research applied the consensus decision model to the coordination and optimization of energy emergency supply chain,which provided a useful reference,but it assumed that the subject was completely rational and ignored the role of trust in supply chain coordination.Therefore,this study takes the trust relationship into the supply chain contract coordination to build a consensus decision model,evaluates the supply chain members quantitatively based on the social network theory,builds a feedback mechanism by using the trust relationship,and exchanges information to promote information sharing.It is found that supply chain members are more willing to refer to the opinions of members with higher trust weight,especially when they meet differences in decision-making,they can make appropriate adjustments and concessions,ease contradictions and promote cooperation.(2)Build a consensus decision-making model of supply chain contract coordination considering loss aversion under trust relationship,and coordinate the supply chain contracts with divergent interests and obtain wide support among members.The consensus decision-making model,incorporating prospect theory to depict members’ loss-averse behavior,reveals the mechanism of influence of loss-averse on the choice of supply chain contract coordination scheme,and make up for the behavior deviation of the extant research under the assumption of complete rationality in consensus decision-making.It is found that supply chain members have obvious differences in decision-making of supply chain contract coordination scheme under loss aversion behavior,and measuring their perceived value based on prospect theory can amplify this difference,thus facilitating identification of supply chain members’ interest differences and promoting consensus.(3)Taking the supply chain of V company,a new energy automobile manufacturer,as an example,this paper analyzes the trust relationship among the supply chain members,considers the loss aversion behavior,and explores how to build a supply chain contract consensus coordination model,taking into account the preferences and interests of the participants,and coordinating differences and contradictions,so as to obtain the optimal supply chain contract consensus scheme.New energy automobile manufacturers should strengthen cooperation with suppliers,seek widely supported supply chain contracts through consensus consultation,timely adjust and formulate reasonable contracts to coordinate contradictions and differences,and reduce supply chain disruption.Further strengthen the construction of trust mechanism among supply chain members,promote the sharing of private information,integrate the resources of new energy vehicle supply chain and make rational allocation,and find the vulnerable nodes in time,so as to improve the flexibility of the whole new energy vehicle supply chain and promote its sustainable operation.In reality,the supply chain of new energy vehicles is a social network with multi-participants.The members of the supply chain not only have limited rational behaviors,but also have different private information.It is very difficult to comprehensively analyze the game equilibrium among the participants.Based on this,this paper explores the coordination of supply chain contracts from the perspective of consensus decision-making,and further considers the trust relationship of supply chain members and the influence of loss aversion behavior on the formulation of supply chain contracts.This is an extension of the discussion scope of supply chain cooperative management theory,and provides a new idea to solve the problem of supply chain contract coordination under multi-agents.This paper also considers asymmetric information and loss-aversion,and obtains a supply chain contract coordination scheme which is satisfied and widely supported by members by building a consensus decision model,which can enhance the participation enthusiasm of members in the supply chain of new energy vehicles,promote the effective implementation of supply chain contracts,and maintain the efficient and sustainable operation of the whole supply chain of new energy vehicles.更多还原