基于WSR方法论的装配式装修推广影响因素研究

【作者】 李敏；

【导师】 侯延香； 赵庆民；

【作者基本信息】 山东建筑大学 ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 装配式装修是传统建筑装修行业顺应“工业4.0”时代潮流,响应“中国制造2025”行动纲领的必要升级,也是“双碳”目标指引下建筑业低碳转型的一大重要突破。相较于传统装修,装配式装修不仅具有良好的经济效益与环境效益,在装修灵活性上也明显优于传统装修,但是,与中国巨大的装修市场相比,这一全新的装修模式尚未得到广泛推广,有关装配式装修的研究和实践仍处于探索期。究其原因,既受到装配式装修技术成熟度低的影响,也受到来自政策、市场和参与主体等多方面因素的影响,因此,识别装配式装修推广影响因素,并理清其作用机理与路径,是有效克服装配式装修推广障碍与制约的关键。本文以装配式装修推广的影响因素为主要研究对象,采用WSR(Wu Li-Shi Li-Ren li)方法论与系统动力学模型相融合的方法,重点开展装配式装修推广影响因素的作用路径与机理研究,主要研究内容包括:(1)装配式装修推广影响因素识别与初步分析,即:运用WSR方法论,识别出32项装配式装修推广影响因素指标,采用AHP-熵权法组合赋权对因素指标进行权重赋值,对组合权重进行比较后,得到规范标准完善程度、政府强制政策、构配件生产成本增量、可持续发展诉求等8项因素会对该模式的推广产生重要影响;(2)装配式装修推广影响因素系统动力学分析,即:构建系统动力学模型对装配式装修推广影响因素系统进行演化模拟,绘制因果关系图并分析因果回路,在此基础上绘制存量流量图,用模型方程量化因素间的数量关系。考虑到数据有效性及可获得性,采用山东省济南市的相关指标开展模型仿真,并对构配件生产成本增量、政府支持意愿、标准化设计水平以及可持续发展诉求4项指标进行模拟调控,观察系统演化趋势,预测装配式装修模式的发展前景;(3)基于WSR方法论提出装配式装修推广策略建议,即:总结现阶段装配式装修推广面临的障碍与制约因素,并基于模型演化结果,从“物理-事理-人理”三个角度对装配式装修的推广提出策略建议。本文从“物理-事理-人理”三个维度研究装配式装修推广影响因素,运用WSR方法论融合系统动力学模型,模拟分析装配式装修推广过程中影响因素的作用机理,研究过程弥补了已有研究忽视“人理”因素的缺陷,研究成果丰富了对装配式装修推广影响因素的探索,为提升装配式装修模式的市场竞争力,促进装配式装修未来发展提供了一定理论指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 Prefabricated decoration is a necessary upgrade of the traditional building decoration industry to comply with the trend of the era of industry 4.0 and respond to the action program of “Made in China 2025”.It is also an important breakthrough in the low-carbon transformation of the construction industry under the guidance of the goal of “Peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality”.Compared with the traditional decoration,prefabricated decoration not only has the good economic benefit and environmental benefit,in decorating a flexibility also is superior to the traditional decoration,but,compared with China’s huge decoration market,this new model has not been widely decorated,studies of prefabricated decoration is still in the exploration and practice.The reasons are not only affected by the low maturity of prefabricated decoration technology,but also by many factors such as policies,markets and participants.Therefore,identifying the influencing factors of prefabricated decoration promotion and clarifying its mechanism and path are the key to effectively overcome the obstacles and constraints of prefabricated decoration promotion.In this study,the influence factors of prefabricated decoration promotion as the main research object,using the WSR(Wu Li-Shi Li-Ren li)methodology and combining the system dynamics model of the key influence factor of developing promotion of prefabricated decoration effect path and mechanism research,the main research contents include:(1)prefabricated decoration promotion factors identification and preliminary analysis,namely: 32 factors influencing the promotion of prefabricated decoration were identified by using the methodology of “Wu Li-Shi Li-Ren Li”(WSR).AHP-Entropy method was used to assign weights to the factors.After comparing the combined weights,eight factors,such as the degree of perfection of norms and standards,government compulsory policies,cost increment of components and parts production,and the demand for sustainable development,will have an important impact on the promotion of this model;(2)System dynamics analysis of influencing factors of the promotion of prefabricated decoration,that is,to build a system dynamics model to simulate the evolution of the influencing factors of the promotion of prefabricated decoration,draw the causal diagram and analyze the causal loop,draw the stock flow diagram on this basis,and quantify the quantitative relationship between factors with the model equation.Consider data validity and availability,using relevant indexes of Jinan of Shandong province to carry out the model simulation,and support for components production cost increment,the government will,the standardized design level and the demands of sustainable development indicators for analog control,observation system evolution trend and predict the development prospects of prefabricated decoration pattern;(3)Based on WSR methodology,suggestions on promotion strategies of prefabricated decoration were put forward,that is,obstacles and constraints faced by the promotion of prefabricated decoration at the present stage were summarized,and strategic suggestions were put forward for the promotion of prefabricated decoration from three perspectives of “ Wu Li-Shi Li-Ren Li ” based on the results of model evolution.This study from the “ Wu Li-Shi Li-Ren Li ” three dimensions research fabricated decoration promotion factors,using the WSR fusion system dynamics model,simulation analysis of prefabricated decoration promotion mechanism,influence factors in the process of the research process make up for the defect of the existing study ignore the “ Ren Li ” factors,rich research results of the fabricated promotion to explore the influential factors of decorate,It provides some theoretical guidance for improving the market competitiveness of prefabricated decoration mode and promoting the future development of prefabricated decoration.更多还原