【作者】 王建军；

【导师】 张继宏；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 宏观质量管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 全球变暖已成为威胁人类生存条件最重要的问题之一,是21世纪全人类共同面对的严峻挑战。全球变暖带来的自然灾害将会对人类的粮食安全以及人类的健康和财富安全带来风险,助长贫困和经济危机等冲突因素,导致发生内战和暴力活动的风险上升。从20世纪80年代以来,全球各国纷纷采取气候变化应对行动并制定碳减排目标,中国也适时提出2030年前实现“碳达峰”,2060年前实现“碳中和”的重大战略部署。城市聚集了人口、经济等诸多要素,二氧化碳排放量约占世界能源相关排放量的71%。因此,如何降低城市碳排放、促进城市低碳发展,成为各国政府及学界关注的焦点,也是考察城市低碳高质量发展的重要指标之一。为了应对二氧化碳排放,许多研究侧重二氧化碳排放与城市结构之间的联系,并从城市空间规划的角度追求低碳发展。然而,以前大多数的研究工作仅从二维空间的角度关注城市结构,而在三维空间中,城市建筑的垂直影响对二氧化碳排放起着重要作用。为了解决这个问题,本文以35个中国大陆的城市为研究案例,定量探讨了城市空间形态结构如何影响城市低碳发展质量中二氧化碳排放总量、人均二氧化碳排放量、碳强度和单位土地二氧化碳排放量等指标。首先城市层面的二氧化碳排放数据来自于中国碳排放数据库(CEADs);城市层面的建筑数据是基于百度地图获取的;并通过建立了一系列空间度量指标来量化城市空间形态。有了这些城市层面2020年的二氧化碳数据和城市建筑数据,通过运用扩展的STIRPAT模型和解决变量之间的多重共线性问题的岭回归建立新模型,以此研究城市空间形态对城市层面二氧化碳排放的影响,进一步研究城市空间形态和城市低碳发展质量之间的关系。结果表明,在城市空间形态与城市二氧化碳排放总量的分析中,由于城市化的快速推动,人类活动消耗大量能源,建筑总体积是加速二氧化碳排放的最大驱动力。此外,高度更高、散热面积更大、高容积率的城市建筑对促进二氧化碳排放也有显著的积极作用。不规则的三维城市结构、低建筑覆盖率和高绿化率将在一定程度上有助于减少二氧化碳排放。城市空间形态中的城市建筑高度、建筑高度标准差、建筑平均体积与城市人均二氧化碳排放成正相关,这些因素促进了城市人均碳排放的提升;建筑总体积、绿化率等指标与城市人均二氧化碳排放成负相关,抑制了城市人均碳排放。在城市空间形态与城市碳强度的分析中,城市建筑高度、建筑高度标准差、建筑平均体积提升了单位GDP中的碳排放,建筑总体积、绿化率等指标与城市碳强度成负相关,降低了单位GDP中的碳排放。城市空间形态中的城市建筑高度、建筑平均体积、空间拥挤度、道路密度与城市单位土地二氧化碳排放量成正相关,建筑总体积、绿化率等指标与城市单位土地二氧化碳排放量成负相关。这些研究结果强调了城市空间形态中城市规划对低碳城市发展质量的重要性,并建议必须通过有效的城市规划,构建合理的城市立体结构;特别是政府应加强土地管理,提高土地利用效率,防止对生态系统的破坏;在紧凑发展的基础上,提出三维城市结构的城市规划应采取合理的发展强度,避免过度集中和聚集的模式;政策制定者和城市设计师应该更多地关注不规则的城市空间形态,以减少二氧化碳排放。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming has become one of the most important problems threatening the living conditions of human beings,and it is a severe challenge faced by all mankind in the 21st century.Natural disasters brought about by global warming will bring risks to human food security and human health and wealth security.It also contributes to conflict factors such as poverty and economic crises,increasing the risk of civil war and violence.Since the 1980s,countries around the world have taken action on climate change and set carbon emission reduction targets.China has also put forward a major strategic plan to achieve"carbon peaking"by 2030 and"carbon neutrality"by 2060.Cities gather many factors such as population and economy,and carbon dioxide emissions account for about 71%of the world’s energy-related emissions.Therefore,how to reduce urban carbon emissions and promote the development of low-carbon cities has become the focus of governments and academia.It is also one of the important indicators to examine the high-quality development of low-carbon cities.To deal with carbon dioxide emissions,many studies focus on the link between carbon dioxide emissions and urban structure,and pursue low-carbon development from the perspective of urban spatial planning.However,most previous research works only focus on urban structure from the perspective of two-dimensional space,while in three-dimensional space,the vertical impact of urban architecture plays an important role in CO₂ emissions.In order to solve this problem,this paper takes 35 cities in Chinese mainland as research cases,and quantitatively explores how the urban spatial morphological structure affects the quality of urban low-carbon development.First,the city-level carbon dioxide emission data comes from the China Carbon Emission Database（CEADs）;the city-level building data is obtained based on Baidu Maps.A series of spatial metrics are established to quantify urban spatial form.With these city-level 2020 CO₂ data and city building data,a new model was built by applying the extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression to address the problem of multicollinearity among the variables.In this way,we will study the impact of urban spatial form on indicators such as total urban carbon dioxide emissions,per capita carbon dioxide emissions,carbon intensity,and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of land,and further study the relationship between urban spatial form and the quality of urban low-carbon development.The results show that in the analysis of urban spatial form and total urban carbon dioxide emissions,due to the rapid promotion of urbanization,human activities consume a lot of energy,and the total volume of buildings is the biggest driving force for accelerating carbon dioxide emissions.In addition,the urban spatial form with higher height,larger heat dissipation area and high plot ratio also has a significant positive effect on promoting carbon dioxide emissions.Irregular three-dimensional urban structure,low building coverage and high greening rate will help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to a certain extent.Urban building height,standard deviation of building height,and average building volume in urban spatial form are positively correlated with urban per capita carbon dioxide emissions.These factors promote the increase of urban per capita carbon emissions.Indicators such as total building volume and greening rate are negatively correlated with urban per capita carbon dioxide emissions,which inhibits urban per capita carbon emissions.In the analysis of urban spatial form and urban carbon intensity,urban building height,standard deviation of building height,and average building volume increase carbon emissions per unit of GDP.Indicators such as total building volume and greening rate are negatively correlated with urban carbon intensity,reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP.The urban building height,average building volume,spatial congestion,and road density in the urban spatial form are positively correlated with the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of urban land.Indicators such as total building volume and greening rate are negatively correlated with carbon dioxide emissions per unit of urban land.These findings emphasize the importance of urban planning in urban spatial form to the quality of low-carbon urban development,and suggest that a reasonable urban three-dimensional structure must be constructed through effective urban planning.In particular,the government should strengthen land management,improve land use efficiency,and prevent damage to the ecosystem.On the basis of compact development,it is proposed that the urban planning of urban spatial form should adopt a reasonable development intensity and avoid excessive concentration and aggregation.Policymakers and urban designers should pay more attention to irregular urban spatial forms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.更多还原