【作者】 王岑；

【导师】 王培刚；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 社会医学与卫生事业管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 目的:构建健康中国建设能力评价指标体系,运用主客观结合的评价方法分析2014-2019年我国主要大型城市的健康中国建设能力的发展情况,依据城市区域与城市群隶属进行对比以及未来发展的预测。分析现在健康中国建设能力的区域特点以及未来的发展趋势,为制定提升健康中国建设能力相关政策提供数据支撑和理论依据。方法:通过文献分析当前研究领域的研究进展,从四个维度构建新时代健康中国建设能力评价指标体系,随后利用全局熵值法、层次分析法和专家咨询法对健康中国建设能力评价指标体系进行主客观综合赋权,对2014-2019年四期数据分别依据综合得分高低进行排名,观察与总结四期内城市总得分与四个维度得分排名变化,依据各城市在区域和城市群的隶属情况,通过得分结果分别对2014-2019年区域与城市群整体健康中国建设能力进行对比分析,并从各个维度探究地区优劣势。最后,基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对不同区域、城市群在2025、2030年两个关键时间点下的建设能力进行预测。结果:(1)就城市整体排名结果而言,在2014-2019年超过三期始终保持前十名的地区有:北京、上海、南京、杭州、厦门、广州、深圳、天津、武汉;而超过三期始终处于最后十名的城市有:西宁、齐齐哈尔、淮南、赣州、保定。(2)五年内排名进步较大的城市占少数,有昆明、银川、石家庄、济宁、秦皇岛等城市,大部分城市排名虽有所进步但整体得分处于下位圈的情况并没有得到改善;(3)随着时间推移,不同区域健康得分整体均有所提升,且每期区域排名结果基本保持一致,依次是:东部>西部≈中部>东北;(4)三大重点城市群健康中国建设能力高于其他地区,健康中国建设能力排序依次是:珠三角>京津冀>长三角;(5)依据预测结果发现,未来至2030年时,西部地区健康发展迅速接近东部地区水平,而东北地区持续落后且差距更为显著;京津冀地区发展迅速,与珠三角地区不相上下,长三角地区紧随其后,三大城市群健康发展相对协调,相较于其他地区的优势在未来有轻微增长的趋势。结论:从2014-2019年四期评价中发现基本所有大型城市健康中国建设能力都有所进步,但整体表现较好的地区仍集中在基础建设好、经济相对发达的地区,其与落后地区健康发展之间的差异短期内难以消除。健康中国区域协调发展初见成效,但落后地区如东北地区健康发展亟待加速。三大重点城市群健康中国建设能力整体明显较高且各有所长,未来在持续保持高水平协调发展的同时还需增强其助推其他地区健康事业发展的带动作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To construct the evaluation index system of Healthy China construction capacity,and to analyze the development of Healthy China construction capacity of major large cities in China from 2014 to 2019 by using subjective and objective evaluation methods,and to compare the situations of regions and urban agglomerations and forecast the future development.To analyze the regional characteristics and future development trend of the construction capacity of Healthy China,and provide data evidences and theoretical basis for the formulation of policies to improve the construction capacity of Healthy China.Methods: By analyzing the current research progress in the field of literature,the evaluation index system of Healthy China construction capacity in the new era was constructed from four dimensions.Subjective and objective comprehensive empowerment,ranking cities of the four periods from 2014 to 2019 according to the comprehensive score,observing and summarizing the changes in the total score of cities and the four dimensions,according to the affiliation of each city in the region and urban agglomeration,the comparative analysis of the overall Healthy China construction capacity of the region and the urban agglomeration from 2014 to 2019 was carried out,and the advantages and disadvantages of the regions were explored from various dimensions.Finally,based on GM(1,1),the construction capacity of different regions and urban agglomerations is predicted at two key time points in 2025 and 2030.Results:(1)In terms of the overall ranking results of cities,Beijing,Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou,Xiamen,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Tianjin and Wuhan have remained in the top 10 for more than three times from 2014 to 2019,while Xining,Qiqihar,Huainan,Ganzhou and Baoding have remained in the bottom 10 for more than three times;(2)In the past five years,Kunming,Yinchuan,Shijiazhuang,Jining,Qinhuangdao and other cities have made great progress in the ranking,but the overall score of most cities in the bottom has not improved;(3)The overall health score of different regions has improved over time,and the regional ranking results in each period are basically the same,which is Eastern region > Western Region ≈ Central Region > Northeast Region;(4)The Healthy China construction ability of three major urban agglomerations is higher than that of other regions,and the order of healthy China construction ability is Pearl River Delta > Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei > Yangtze River Delta;(5)According to the forecast results,the healthy development of the western region will rapidly approach that of the eastern region by 2030,while the northeast region will continue to lag behind and the gap will increase.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has developed rapidly,and is comparable to that of the Pearl River Delta region,followed by the Yangtze River Delta region.The healthy development of the three urban agglomerations is relatively coordinated,but compared with other regions,their advantages will increase slightly in the future.Conclusions: From the evaluation of the four phases from 2014 to 2019,it is found that basically all large cities have made progress in health China construction capacity,but the areas with higher overall scores are still concentrated in areas with good infrastructure and relatively developed economy,the difference in health development between them and the underdeveloped regions will not be eliminated in the short term.The coordinated regional development of healthy China has achieved initial effects,but the healthy development of underdeveloped regions such as northeast China needs to be accelerated.The healthy China construction capacity of the three major urban agglomerations is obviously higher on the whole and each has its own strengths.In the future,while maintaining a high-level coordinated development,it is necessary to enhance its driving role in promoting the development of health construction in other regions.更多还原