【作者】 王达；

【导师】 巴殿君；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 国际政治， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 美国对台实施的军售政策自“冷战”后便一直处于不断变动的状态。进入21世纪,美国历届总统仍在延续这一制华战略的政策性手段,不同时期不同阶段,其内容在不断地变化与发展。本论文深入研究了21世纪后美国对台军售政策的演变状况,采用了多元化的研究方法,剖析了美国四任总统对台军售政策演变背景、内容与阶段性变化特征,从军售数量、军售质量和军售频率三大维度对21世纪后历届总统对台军售的内在规律进行总结,指出了其对台军售的危害性及未来发展趋势,并提出有针对性的对策建议。本论文共分三大部分,包括绪论、正文与结论。正文部分包括四个章节,第1章从地理位置、安全、政治、经济等几个方面分析台湾对美国的战略价值;第2章回顾了21世纪以来美国三任总统任期内对台军售历史发展进程,总结各任总统对台军售的特点和变化;第3章重点分析了拜登对台军售的内容及特征;第4章分析美台关系的整体趋势、特点、危害,提出我国应对之策。进入21世纪以来,随着中国大陆综合实力的不断提升,影响力逐渐扩大,美国历届总统通过对台军售制衡中国的发展,在小布什执政期间,对台军售数额增长幅度明显。奥巴马政府时期,美国面临金融危机的巨大冲击,中美合作趋势增强,两国的关系呈现出一定程度的稳定。奥巴马政府实施3次对台军售,且每一次的成交额都非常高。特朗普政府时期,中美两国之间的关系再次趋于紧张,美方不断打出“台湾牌”,先后出台多个涉台军售法案,相比较来看,特朗普任期内军售额度、质量与军售频次达到了历史之最。拜登政府上任的一年多的时间里,实施了2次对台军售,其对台军售政策沿袭了美国传统对华制衡战略,在对台军售政策方面主张“修正失衡”“维系现状”“规避冲突”,同时在“印太战略”框架中安排中国台湾地区的角色,在国际多边体系中维护中国台湾地区的所谓“事实独立现状”,利用对台军售牵制和影响两岸关系。美国对台军售具有内在规律性特征。今后对台军售将会频繁化,进攻性武器渐次增强,“对台军售牌”打法更加多样化。美国不断通过军售的手段,助长“台独”势力发展,阻碍了两岸和平统一,破坏了中美关系稳定,搅乱了地区安全形势。为此,加强国防现代化建设,坚定人民军队强军路线,落实新时代军事战略创新方针,增强国家战略储备和军事威慑力,是未来相当长时期应采取的反制措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The US arms sales policy to Taiwan has been in a state of constant change since the "Cold War".Entering the 21 st century,successive U.S.presidents are still continuing the policy measures of this strategy of suppressing China,and its content is constantly changing and developing in different periods and stages.This paper deeply studies the evolution of U.S.arms sales policy to Taiwan after the 21 st century,adopts a variety of research methods,and analyzes the evolution background,content and phased characteristics of the four U.S.presidents’ arms sales policies to Taiwan,from the number of arms sales to Taiwan.The three dimensions of arms sales quality and arms sales frequency summarize the inherent laws of successive presidents’ arms sales to Taiwan after the 21 st century,point out the harm and future development trend of their arms sales to Taiwan,and put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions.This thesis is divided into three parts,including the introduction,the main body and the conclusion.The main body consists of four chapters.Chapter 1 analyzes Taiwan’s strategic value to the United States from the aspects of geographic location,politics,economy,and security.Chapter 2 reviews the history of arms sales to Taiwan during the three U.S.presidential terms since the 21 st century.The development process,summarizes the characteristics and changes of each president’s arms sales to Taiwan;Chapter 3 focuses on the content and characteristics of Biden’s arms sales to Taiwan;Chapter 4 analyzes the overall trend,characteristics,and hazards of US-Taiwan region relations,and proposes that my country countermeasures.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,with the continuous improvement of the comprehensive strength of Chinese mainland and the gradual expansion of its influence,successive US presidents have balanced China’s development through arms sales to Taiwan.During the Bush administration,the amount of arms sales to Taiwan increased significantly.During the Obama administration,the United States faced a huge impact from the financial crisis,the Sino-US cooperation trend was strengthened,and the relationship between the two countries showed a certain degree of stability.The Obama administration carried out three arms sales to Taiwan,and each time the turnover was very high.During the Trump administration,the relationship between China and the United States became tense again.The United States continued to play the "Taiwan card" and successively introduced a number of Taiwan-related arms sales bills.The quality and frequency of arms sales reached an all-time high.In the more than a year since the Biden administration took office,it has implemented two arms sales to Taiwan.Its arms sales policy to Taiwan follows the traditional U.S.strategy of checks and balances against China.The status quo" and"avoidance of conflict",while arranging the role of Taiwan in the framework of the"Indo-Pacific Strategy",maintaining the so-called "de facto independent status quo"of Taiwan in the international multilateral system,and using arms sales to Taiwan to contain and influence cross-strait relations.US arms sales to Taiwan are inherently regular.In the future,arms sales to Taiwan will become more frequent,offensive weapons will gradually increase,and the way of "arms sales to Taiwan" will be more diversified.The United States continues to promote the development of "Taiwan independence" forces through arms sales,hinder the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,undermine the stability of Sino-US relations,and disrupt the regional security situation.To this end,strengthening national defense modernization,strengthening the people’s army and strengthening the army,implementing the new era of military strategy innovation,and enhancing national strategic reserves and military deterrence are countermeasures that should be taken for a long time in the future.更多还原