【作者】 杨丹；

【导师】 樊丽淑；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 国际商务（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 人工智能正在引领第四次工业革命,各国均将其上升至国家战略层面,成为产业政策的发力点和竞争的焦点。中国作为第一制造业大国,人工智能与制造业的融合发展是中国迈向制造业强国的关键一步,是解决中国制造业“低端锁定”有利举措。探究人工智能在制造业全球价值链攀升中的作用,对提升中国在全球价值链分工中的地位与话语权、促进制造业转型升级有重要意义。首先,从国家战略层面来看,人工智能与制造业融合发展产生的技术进步符合我国经济结构转型的要求;其次,抢占全球价值链的至高点是应对复杂多变国际局势的必然选择。因此从理论与实证两方面分析人工智能对制造业全球价值链攀升的影响,对我国制造业转型升级并占据全球价值链的有利位置有一定的理论参考与很强的现实意义。本文从人工智能与制造业融合发展带来的经济效应出发,首先,梳理了人工智能与制造业的发展现状;其次,通过测算2008-2017年中国31省(市)制造业出口技术复杂度,作为制造业全球价值链地位的衡量指标构筑了省级面板数据;最后,利用省级面板数据实证分析了人工智能对制造业价值链攀升的影响及其影响机制,同时结合企业案例分析制造业企业价值链攀升路径。研究结果表明人工智能显著促进了中国制造业全球价值链的攀升,且这一积极促进效应主要通过提升制造业全要素生产率与促进创新实现的;将全要素生产率进一步分解可知,纯技术效率的提升更有利于促进制造业价值链地位的攀升,规模效率的作用有待进一步释放;在考虑区域发展不平衡的事实后可知,人工智能对西部地区价值链的攀升影响更大,东中部稍次之,人工智能的引领作用存在区域差异;考虑时间因素后可知,人工智能对制造业全球价值链攀升的影响呈先抑制后促进的“U”型结构。为此,提出以下政策建议:发挥人工智能的头雁效应、实施差异化策略、培养先进制造业集群、促进创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 Artificial intelligence is leading the fourth industrial revolution.All countries have elevated it to the level of national strategy and it is becoming the focal point of industrial policy and competition.As the largest manufacturing country,the integrated development of artificial intelligence and manufacturing is a key point for China to become a manufacturing power and to solve the dilemma of China’s manufacturing industry to be locked in the low value-added activities in global value chains.To explore the impact of artificial intelligence on the improvements of manufacturing’s global value chains is significance to enhance China’s status and voice in the division of global value chains and promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.First,from the perspective of national strategy,the technological progress generated by the integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing meets the needs of China’s economic structural transformation.Second,to seize the highest point of the global value chain is necessary to deal with the intricate and changing international situation.Therefore,it has certain theoretical reference and practical significance to analyze the influence of artificial intelligence on the rising of manufacturing global value chains from both theoretical and empirical aspects for China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading to occupy a favorable position in the global value chain.Starting from the economic effect brought by the integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing industry,firstly current status of artificial intelligence and manufacturing industry are illustrated;Secondly,31 provinces’(cities’)manufacturing export sophistication from 2008 to 2017 is calculated and based on this,provincial panel data is constructed;Finally,the influence of artificial intelligence on manufacturing value chain climbing and its influencing mechanism are studied by empirical research,at the meantime,enterprise case is analyzed to explore the path of climbing.The results show that artificial intelligence significantly promotes the climb of manufacturing global value chain,and the positive promotion effect is mainly achieved by improving total factor productivity and promoting innovation.Further decomposition of total factor productivity shows that the improvement of pure technical efficiency is more conducive to promoting the position of manufacturing value chain than the scale efficiency.After considering the unbalanced regional development,artificial intelligence has a greater impact on the improvements of manufacturing value chain in the western region than the eastern and central regions,the leading role of artificial intelligence has regional differences.Taking time factor into consideration,the impact of artificial intelligence on the climb of manufacturing value chain was released after 2012,before which the impact was not significant and had a certain inhibitory effect.Therefore,we conclude below suggestions: give full play to the leading role of artificial intelligence,implement differentiation strategy,cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters,and promote innovation.更多还原