【作者】 王利；

【导师】 王松茂；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农林经济管理， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,世界反贫事业如火如荼,中国已经于2020年实现了全面建设小康社会的目标,脱贫攻坚战取得了阶段性胜利。返贫现象不断发生影响着脱贫的稳定性和可持续性,在一定程度上消解了政府为扶持贫困所付出的努力,掩盖了个体为摆脱贫困所付出的辛劳,延缓了我国扶贫开发工作的稳步高质推进。2018年9月,国家印发《乡村振兴战略规划(2018-2022年)》明确提出了要把精准扶贫工作作为实现乡村振兴战略的重要任务,要认真总结相关的扶贫经验,建立稳定脱贫和防止返贫的长效机制。2019年,习近平总书记在重庆考察时指出要把防止返贫摆在重要位置,适时组织对脱贫人口开展“回头看”,脱贫不返贫才是真脱贫。2020年,国务院印发《关于建立防止返贫监测和帮扶机制的指导意见》中,提出防止返贫作为当前及今后一个时期扶贫工作的重要任务,围绕“两不愁三保障”主要指标,统筹政府、市场和社会资源,建立防止返贫监测和帮扶机制,巩固脱贫成果,确保高质量全面打赢脱贫攻坚战。2021年,《中共中央、国务院关于实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的意见》中,明确提出了健全防止返贫动态监测和帮扶机制的重要性和必要性,从源头上发现返贫,早发现早帮扶;从制度上防止返贫,补短板除风险;巩固脱贫成果,守住返贫底线。返贫问题正是脱贫攻坚战中出现的新问题,随着脱贫攻坚事业的进一步推进,返贫现象正在成为妨碍扶贫工作的重要阻碍。那么,中国农村的返贫现象是否严重?在农村造成返贫的具体原因有哪些呢?在诸多造成返贫的原因中,哪些方面对中国农村返贫的贡献最大呢?地域分布对中国农村返贫率的高低是否有影响?诸多问题尚且需要研究。本文尝试分析中国农村家庭多维贫困与返贫的时空演变,并研究整理防止返贫的相关对策。本文基于A-F方法,借鉴蒋南平关于返贫的测算方式,利用CFPS数据,构建多维贫困指标体系,测度中国农村家庭的多维贫困率。在此基础上进行多维返贫识别、构建多维返贫指数,计算中国23个省份的返贫率,并为测算中国农村家庭返贫的深度,计算多维平均返贫份额与各维度贡献率。并将按东中西部地区中国农村家庭多维贫困率与返贫率通过Arc GIS软件做可视化处理,探究中国农村家庭多维贫困与返贫的时空演变。实证结果表明:(1)随着维度数的增加,贫困率不断减少,单一维度的贫困占据主导地位;随着维度数的增加返贫率也随之下降,返贫指数降低,多维平均返贫份额增加。(2)多维贫困率与返贫率的变化走向并不一致,返贫家庭占据中国农村多维贫困家庭的比重更大,也就是说:返贫是造成中国农村家庭多维贫困的重要原因。(3)从空间角度看,贫困率与返贫率从西向东依次递减,并且呈现南高北低的现象。从返贫的广度上讲,西部地区大于中部地区大于东部地区。(4)经济与医疗健康维度对返贫的贡献率占前二,教育维度的贡献率不断下降并达到五个维度最低。且生活水平维度与资产维度的贡献率,无论是东部中部西部地区随着年份的增长返贫率都在不断波动增加,说明近年来资产维度的固定房产以及土地指标是造成返贫问题的重要因素。从返贫的深度上讲,依旧是西部地区大于中部地区大于东部地区。最后根据实证结果提出相应的对策建议。(1)继续完善中国农村家庭返贫精准识别和动态监测系统。(2)因地制宜,推动经济高质量发展,提升农村收入水平。(3)深度普及医疗保险,协调社会医疗资源,防止健康返贫。(4)强化农村义务教育,普及成人教育,拓宽受教育渠道。(5)完善农村基础设施建设,提升抗风险能力,降低返贫脆弱性。(6)关注资产收益扶贫,增加返贫人口资本积累,提升返贫应对能力。(7)优化防止返贫治理结构,构建社会各界协同治理体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the fight against poverty in the world has been in full swing.China has achieved the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020,marking a phased victory in the battle against poverty.The phenomenon of returning to poverty affects the stability and sustainability of poverty alleviation,which to a certain extent eliminates the efforts of the government to support poverty,covers up the hard work of individuals to get rid of poverty,and delays the steady and high-quality progress of poverty alleviation and development in China.In September 2018,the State issued the Strategic Plan for Rural Revitalization(2018-2022),which clearly stated that targeted poverty alleviation should be taken as an important task of realizing the rural revitalization strategy,relevant poverty alleviation experience should be carefully summarized,and a long-term mechanism for stable poverty alleviation and prevention of poverty return should be established.In 2019,General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out during his inspection tour in Chongqing that preventing people from falling back into poverty should be placed at an important position,and timely "looking back" should be organized for those who have been lifted out of poverty.In 2020,the State Council issued the about the mechanism of monitoring and helping to prevent Chinese instruction opinion ",put forward to prevent the Chinese for a period of poverty alleviation in the present and the future work of the important tasks,around the "two have three guarantees" leading indicators,as a whole the government,market and social resources,establish prevent Chinese monitoring and support mechanism,strengthen poverty alleviation achievements,We will ensure high-quality and comprehensive victory in the battle against poverty.In 2021,the Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council on Effectively Linking The Achievements of Consolidating and Expanding Poverty Alleviation with Rural Revitalization clearly stated the importance and necessity of improving the dynamic monitoring and assistance mechanism for preventing poverty from falling back into poverty,so as to identify poverty from the source and provide early assistance.Prevent the return to poverty from the system,make up the weak board except risk;We will consolidate our achievements in poverty alleviation and keep the bottom line of returning to poverty.This paper attempts to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of multidimensional poverty and return to poverty in rural China,and studies and collates relevant countermeasures to prevent the return to poverty.Based on the A-F method,this paper uses CFPS data to construct A multidimensional poverty index system,and uses STATA software to calculate multidimensional poverty rate.On this basis,multi-dimensional poverty return identification is carried out and multi-dimensional poverty return index is constructed.Stata software is still used to calculate the poverty return rate of 23 provinces in China.In order to measure the depth of poverty return of Rural households in China,the multi-dimensional average share of poverty return and contribution rate of each dimension are calculated.The spatial and temporal evolution of multidimensional poverty and return to poverty of Rural families in China is explored by using Arcgis software for visualization processing according to multidimensional poverty rate and return to poverty rate of rural families in eastern and western China.The empirical results show that:(1)As the number of dimensions increases,the poverty rate decreases,and single-dimension poverty plays a dominant role;With the increase of dimension number,the return to poverty rate also decreases,and the return to poverty index decreases,mostly because the average return to poverty share increases.(2)The change trend of multidimensional poverty rate is not consistent with that of return to poverty rate.The proportion of return to poverty is larger in multidimensional poor families in rural China.That is to say,return to poverty is an important cause of multidimensional poverty in rural China.(3)From the perspective of space,the poverty rate and return to poverty rate decreased from west to east,and showed a phenomenon of high in the south and low in the north.In terms of the breadth of returning to poverty,the western region is larger than the central region and larger than the eastern region.(4)The contribution rate of economic and medical dimensions to poverty reduction accounted for the first two,while the contribution rate of education continued to decline and reached the lowest of the five dimensions.In addition,the contribution rate of living standard dimension and asset dimension both fluctuated and increased with the growth of eastern,central and western regions,indicating that fixed property and land indicators of asset dimension are important factors causing poverty return in recent years.In terms of the depth of poverty return,the western region is still larger than the central region and larger than the eastern region.Finally,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the empirical results.(1)We will continue to improve an accurate identification system for Rural Families returning to poverty in China and strengthen monitoring.(2)Adjust measures to local conditions,promote high-quality economic development and raise rural incomes.(3)Deeply popularize medical insurance,coordinate social medical resources,and prevent health from returning to poverty.(4)Strengthen compulsory education in rural areas,popularize adult education and broaden access to education.(5)Improve the construction of rural infrastructure,enhance the ability to resist risks and reduce the vulnerability to falling back into poverty.(6)We will pay attention to poverty alleviation through asset income,increase capital accumulation of people returning to poverty,and improve their ability to cope with poverty.(7)Optimize the governance structure for preventing poverty return and build a collaborative governance system for all sectors of society.更多还原