【作者】 张薇；

【导师】 王良健；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国城市化进程的加快、住宅市场化改革,房地产市场发展迅速。中央与地方政府通过制定土地供应政策,宏观调控土地这一特殊生产要素,潜移默化影响着房地产市场。本文基于土地出让市场供应视角,考察商品房限购政策对房地产市场调控优化及其对城市土地出让市场的政策效应,为商品房限购政策提供了新视角的政策评估,“价-量”双维度描述限购政策对住宅土地出让市场的影响效应。通过梳理过往关于房地产市场和土地市场的相关文献,根据我国各城市目前进行的抑制房价、平稳房地产市场的政策措施,立足于限购政策对住宅用地出让市场的机理机制分析,提出了四种基本假设。并运用了2004-2018年273个城市的面板数据构造多时点双重差分模型进行了面板固定效应回归分析,以“商品房限购”政策构造严格的外生变量,检验商品房限购这一行政规制对住宅用地出让市场的影响。探究房地产限购政策对整个土地市场影响的持续性效果;通过不同城市之间的比较分析,分析各地区在限购政策影响下的不同反馈,深入认识限购区域受政策影响的差异程度,进一步判断政策的合理性和有效性。有利于完善政策,提高政策精准性和导向性。研究结论表明,我国目前各大城市相继试点实施的房地产限购政策不仅作用于房产需求市场,也对房产供给市场——土地出让市场产生了显著影响。并在稳健性检验中,通过平衡面板回归分析论断了其合理性,通过进一步分析发现限购政策具有时滞性;为进一步验证结论合理性,本文采用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法相结合的计量手段,通过半径匹配进行检验,论证了本文主要观点,限购政策作为对房产需求端数量的行政规制,不可避免地对房产供给端的土地出让数量造成了显著负影响,但因限购政策未对房产价格作出明确规定,未能改变我国房价刚性,对土地出让市场上的出让价格也无法产生实质性影响。在此后的异质性分析中,本文通过一、二、三线城市的异质性和区域层面的异质性分析,验证了限购因政策实施城市在地理位置、经济社会发展程度的不同,对土地市场的影响效力和程度存在城市层面和区域空间层面的显著差别,房产限购对土地出让数量降低作用和对土地出让价格的抬升作用在一线城市中极为显著,对二线、三线、三线外城市的作用依次递减;限购对东部地区城市的土地出让量降低最强烈,对土地出让价格的抬升幅度最大,政策效果在中西部地区明显削弱,在西部地区,限购甚至打击了土地供给市场,对土地供给量和出让价格均造成了显著负影响。最终,本文再次结合古典经济学的供需理论和当前我国房产供给市场和土地出让市场紧密结合的现实,对限购政策的影响机制和传导路径进行了梳理,发现限购政策通过影响住房市场需求影响了土地供应市场。根据以上结论,本文提出推行房地产供给侧改革,重视市场交互作用;减少一刀切政策,坚持制定房地产调控差异化政策;进一步完善土地市场相关的信息发布制度,使人们的预期保持在合理的范围;加快建设市场发展长效机制,建立可持续市场体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process and the housing market reform,the real estate market has developed rapidly.Since the central government took land management as an important means of macro-control,the relationship between land supply policy and real estate market has been further highlighted.Based on the perspective of land sale market supply,this paper investigates the policy effect of house purchase restriction on the real estate market regulation and optimization and on the land sale market,and provides a new perspective for the policy evaluation of house purchase restriction policy.The "price-quantity" dual dimension describes the influence effect of house purchase restriction policy on the residential land sale market.Based on the analysis of the mechanism and mechanism of the purchase restriction policy on the residential land transfer market,four basic assumptions are put forward by sorting out the relevant literature on the real estate market and land market,according to the current policy measures to restrain the housing price and stabilize the real estate market in various cities in China.Based on the panel data of273 cities from 2004 to 2018,a multi-point differential model was constructed for the panel fixing effect regression analysis,and the exogenous variables were constructed to examine the influence of the commercial housing purchase restriction on the residential land transfer market.To investigate the continuity of the effect of the purchase restriction policy on the land market;The paper also pays attention to the differentiated feedbacks of different cities on the purchase restriction policies,conducts inter-city comparison,further identifies the influencing factors of the regional differentiation effect of purchase restriction policies,and further judges the rationality and effectiveness of the policies.It is conducive to improving policies and improving their precision and orientation.The conclusion of the study shows that the real estate purchase restriction policies implemented on a pilot basis in each major city in China not only act on the real estate demand market,but also have a significant impact on the real estate supply market--the land transfer market.In the robustness test,the rationality of the policy is concluded by the balanced panel regression analysis,and the dynamic analysis shows that the purchase restriction policy has time lag.For further verifying the rationality of the conclusion,this article USES the tendency to score matching and double difference method measuring means,through the radius of matching test,proved in this paper,the main point of view,restrictions as a number of administrative regulation of the housing demand side,inevitably on the number of housing land supply side had a significantly negative effect,but not because of restrictions on real estate prices make that clear,failing to change rigid housing prices in China,the housing transfer prices of land transfer market does not have a material impact.Over the heterogeneity in the analysis in this paper,one,two,three cities of heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity analysis,verified the restricted due to the policy of cities in geographical position,economic and social development level is different,the impact on the land market degree of effectiveness and exist significant difference on the level of city level and regional space,to reduce the number of detailed restriction on land transfer function and the rise of land prices effect is very significant in the first-tier cities,for two lines,three lines,three lines outside the city of decreasing;In the eastern region,the purchase restriction has the strongest effect on the land transfer amount and the largest increase in the land transfer price,and the policy effect is obviously weakened in the central and western regions.In the western region,the purchase restriction has even hit the land supply market,causing a significant negative impact on both the land supply amount and the land transfer price.Finally,this paper combined the supply and demand theory of classical economics and the reality that China’s housing supply market and land transfer market are closely combined,analyzed the influence mechanism and transmission path of the purchase restriction policy,and found that the purchase restriction policy affected the land supply market by affecting the housing market demand.According to the above conclusions,this paper proposes to carry out real estate supply-side reform and attach importance to market interaction;Reduce the one-size-fits-all policy,adhere to the development of real estate regulation and differentiation policies;Improve the land market information release system to guide people’s reasonable expectations;We will accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism for market development and establish a sustainable market system.更多还原