【作者】 陈宇；

【导师】 谢里；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 理论经济学， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国能源消耗水平不断攀升,由此带来的温室气体排放、环境污染、能源供应安全等问题深刻地影响着经济和社会的可持续发展。在此背景下,政府发布、修订了一系列文件和法律以鼓励、引导全社会进行节能技术创新,希望借此控制或降低能源消耗水平。为揭示节能技术进步与能源消费之间的关系,本文利用Jorgenson(1963)新古典投资模型,从理论上分析节能技术进步影响能源消费的可能渠道;以电力消费为切入点,采用空间杜宾模型进行实证分析和机制检验,为利用节能技术创新降低能源消费水平提供理论和实证依据。本文旨在研究节能技术进步对能源消费的影响。首先,通过构造能源消费关于节能技术进步的函数,引入产业结构、能源价格和收入水平因子,并以新古典投资理论模型为基础构建节能技术进步影响能源消费的理论模型框架,据此考察节能技术进步影响能源消费的内在机理。理论分析发现,节能技术进步可以通过影响产业结构降低能源消费,通过影响能源价格和收入水平促进能源消费。其次,以电力消费为切入点,选取2007年至2016年中国277个城市(不包括港澳台地区和西藏自治区辖下的城市)为研究样本,在手工收集、整理城市节电专利的基础上,采用空间杜宾模型进行实证研究和机制检验。研究结果表明,在全国和分地区层面,节电技术创新不仅促进了城市的总电力消费,也刺激了工业和生活电力消费;节电技术创新在全国和东部城市均存在显著的空间溢出效应,不过这种空间溢出效应仅对周边城市具有显著影响。在经过替换空间权重矩阵、改变节电技术衡量方法以及剔除省会或直辖市之后,估计结果依然稳健,表明本文的实证结果是稳健可信的。进一步的机制检验发现节能技术创新可以通过影响产业结构和能源价格抑制地区的能源消费,从而破解“杰文斯悖论”。最后,基于理论和实证分析结果,结合我国当前经济发展状况,本文从加快节能技术创新、推动产业结构升级以及深化能源市场化改革三方面提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China’s energy consumption level has been rising,resulting in greenhouse gas emissions,environmental pollution,energy supply security and other issues have a profound impact on the sustainable development of the economy and society.In this context,the government has issued and revised a series of documents and laws to encourage and guide the whole society to innovate energy-saving technologies,hoping to control or reduce energy consumption.In order to reveal the relationship between the progress of energy saving technology and energy consumption,this paper uses the neoclassical investment model of Jorgenson(1963)to theoretically analyze the possible channels through which the progress of energy saving technology affects energy consumption.Taking power consumption as the starting point,the spatial Dubin model is used for empirical analysis and mechanism test,so as to provide theoretical and empirical basis for reducing energy consumption level by using energy-saving technology innovation.The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of energy-saving technology progress on energy consumption.Firstly,by constructing the function of energy consumption on energy saving technological progress,introducing the factors of industrial structure,energy price and income level,and based on the neoclassical investment theory model,constructing the theoretical model frame of the impact of energy saving technological progress on energy consumption,based on which the internal mechanism of the impact of energy saving technological progress on energy consumption is investigated.Theoretical analysis shows that the progress of energy saving technology can reduce energy consumption by affecting industrial structure,and promote energy consumption by affecting energy price and income level.Secondly,taking power consumption as the entry point,277 Chinese cities(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet Autonomous Region)from 2007 to 2016 were selected as research samples.On the basis of manual collection and sorting of urban power saving patents,spatial Dupin model was used for empirical analysis and mechanism test.The results show that at the national and sub-regional levels,the innovation of electricity saving technology not only promotes the total urban electricity consumption,but also stimulates the industrial and domestic electricity consumption.There is a significant spatial spillover effect of electricity saving technology innovation in China and eastern cities,but this spatial spillover effect only has a significant impact on the surrounding cities.After replacing the spatial weight matrix,changing the measurement method of electricity saving technology and excluding the provincial capitals or municipalities directly under the central government,the estimated results are still robust,indicating that the empirical results of this paper are robust and credible.In addition,further mechanism tests confirm the theoretical analysis above to a certain extent,and it is found that energy conservation technology innovation can suppress energy consumption in regions by affecting industrial structure and energy prices,thus solving the "Jevons’ Paradox".Finally,based on the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,combined with China’s current economic development,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from three aspects: accelerating the innovation of energy saving technology,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and deepening the reform of energy market.更多还原