【作者】 李婷；

【导师】 刘丹丹；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 应用统计（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【副题名】基于非期望产出SBM-Malmquist-Tobit模型

【摘要】 近年来,中国的经济一直在快速增长,随着这种增长,对能源的需求也在不断增加。中国作为全球经济增长的主要驱动力,目前仍处于能源需求和消费不断增长的阶段,而能源消费的过程不可避免地导致环境污染。如何减少污染,提高能源利用效率,是一项亟待解决的问题。“十三五”时期是山西省深化改革和资源型经济发展的关键时期,同时也是应对关键环境挑战、推动环境历史性变革的关键时期。提高全要素能源效率也是“十四五”时期的工作重点。在这一背景下,通过对山西省的能源利用效率的测算,对山西省能源利用效率的影响因素进行研究,对促进山西省的经济、能源和环境协调发展具有一定的意义。本文从山西省11个地级市的角度对山西省的全要素能源效率进行测度,并分析影响全要素能源效率的因素,对山西省实现经济、能源和环境的协调发展提供了参考。首先,回顾了相关文献,以熟悉能源效率领域的研究,并制定本文的研究思路。其次,介绍了与能源效率有关的概念,对中国和山西省的能源效率现状进行了简要的分析,对使用的模型理论进行了介绍。在此基础上,利用基于非期望产出SBM模型对能源利用效率进行测度和分析,采用Malmquist指数法动态分析能源效率变化,其中,投入变量选取了劳动力、资本和能源,劳动力指标使用从业人员数量来表示,资本用资本存量来表示,使用能源消耗量表示能源指标,期望产出选取了城市地区生产总值,非期望产出选取的是工业部门S02的排放量。最后本文选择了产业结构、煤炭产业依赖度、技术进步、经济发展水平、政府干预度和对外开放程度六个影响因素,建立了 Tobit模型,对山西省全要素能源效率的影响因素进行分析。最后对本文的研究成果进行了总结,并提出了相关建议。本文的研究结论有:(1)山西省总体的全要素能源效率较高,其中朔州市和临汾市实现了全要素能源效率有效,能源利用效率达到了最优化,其他9个城市均未实现全要素能源效率有效,其中晋中市全要素能源效率最低。(2)近十年来山西省总体全要素能源效率水平成功得以改善,年均增长率为4.7%,根据该指数的分解,改善的主要原因是技术进步的作用。所以增加科研投资、促进科技创新可以成为提高全要素能源效率和经济发展水平的有效途径。(3)技术进步和经济发展水平对山西省整体和各个城市的全要素能源效率影响比较大,经济发展水平有显著的正向作用。产业结构和煤炭产业依赖度对山西省全要素能源效率有显著的负向作用。政府干预度和对外开放程度山西省整体的全要素能源效率的影响不显著。最后,本文提出了几点建议,以供参考:一是制定符合城市发展的政策,促进省内能源经济环境均衡发展;二是推进产业结构转型升级,减少对煤炭产业的依赖;三是提高科技创新能力,促进技术进步;四是提高经济发展水平,同时加大引用外商投资力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,China’s economy has been growing rapidly and with this growth comes an increasing demand for energy.As a major driver of global economic growth,China is still in a phase of growing energy demand and consumption,and the process of energy consumption inevitably leads to environmental pollution.How to reduce pollution and improve the efficiency of energy use is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed."The 13th Five-Year Plan period is a critical stage for Shanxi Province to deepen its reforms and make significant progress in transforming its resource-based economy,as well as to address key environmental challenges and promote historic environmental change.Improving total factor energy efficiency is also a key focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.In this context,it is important to measure the total factor energy efficiency of Shanxi Province and analyse the factors affecting energy efficiency in Shanxi Province,in order to promote the harmonious development of the economy,energy and environment in Shanxi Province.This paper measures the total factor energy efficiency of Shaanxi Province from the perspective of 11 prefectures in Shanxi Province,and analyses the factors affecting total factor energy efficiency,and makes suggestions on how to achieve the coordinated development of economy,energy and environment in Shanxi Province.Firstly,relevant literature is reviewed to familiarise with research in the field of energy efficiency and to develop the research ideas for this paper.Secondly,concepts related to energy efficiency are introduced,a brief analysis of the current state of energy efficiency in China and Shanxi Province is presented,and the model theory used is described.The total factor energy efficiency is then measured and analysed using the SBM model based on non-desired outputs.The Malmquist index method is used to analyse the dynamics of total factor energy efficiency,with input variables selected as the number of employees,capital stock and energy consumption,desired outputs selected as urban gross regional product and non-desired outputs selected as emissions from the industrial sector.Then six influencing factors,including industrial structure,were selected to construct a Tobit model to analyse the influencing factors of total factor energy efficiency in Shanxi Province.Finally,the research results of this paper are summarised and relevant recommendations are made.The findings of this paper include:(1)The overall total factor energy efficiency in Shanxi Province is high,among which Shuozhou and Linfen have achieved effective total factor energy efficiency and optimized energy use efficiency,while the other nine cities have not achieved effective total factor energy efficiency,among which Jinzhong has the lowest total factor energy efficiency.(2)The overall total factor energy efficiency level in Shanxi Province has managed to improve in the last decade,with an average annual growth rate of 4.7%.According to the decomposition of this index,the main reason for the improvement is the role of technological progress.Therefore,increasing investment in scientific research and promoting technological innovation can be an effective way to improve the energy efficiency and economic development level.(3)Technological progress and economic development level have a relatively large impact on the energy efficiency in Shanxi Province as a whole province and cities,with economic development level having a significant positive effect.Industrial structure and coal industry dependency have a significant negative effect on total factor energy efficiency in Shanxi Province.The degree of government intervention and openness to the outside world do not have a significant effect on the total factor energy efficiency of Shanxi Province as a whole.Finally,this paper makes several suggestions for reference:firstly,to formulate policies consistent with urban development and promote a balanced energy and economic environment in the province;secondly,to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure and reduce the reliance on the coal industry;thirdly,to improve the capacity for scientific and technological innovation and promote technological progress;and fourthly,to improve the level of economic development,while increasing the citation of foreign investment.更多还原