【作者】 张艳；

【导师】 刘颖；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 应用统计（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 受2008年金融危机的冲击,国际贸易环境变得更加严峻,中国对外贸易也受到了影响,增长幅度放缓,压力也进一步加大。在这种严酷的形势下,我国跨境电商行业呈现出一个逆势而上快速增长的局面,并且一直保持着高速发展的状态,成为外贸增长的新渠道。另外跨境电商作为一种新的外贸应用形式,不仅能减少贸易中的成本,还能提高我国企业在国际中的竞争力,加速推进我国传统外贸的转型升级。在政府提出“互联网+”和“一带一路”的倡议下,怎样促使跨境电商的顺利发展以及我国外贸的有效增长等问题需要我们进行深入的分析和研究。本文选取跨境电商作为研究对象,首先总结归纳了跨境电商的定义,跨境电商中存在的物流、通关及税收问题和跨境电商与国际贸易之间关系的相关学术研究,从技术创新理论、贸易成本理论的角度构建分析跨境电商对国际贸易的影响机制,进而为实证结果分析提供理论依据,并提出合适的建议。其次对跨境电商的发展模式、结构以及与贸易国来往的密切度进行分析,进而总结跨境电商在不同范围的成绩和不足。然后,通过选择53个“一带一路”沿线主要国家从2007年-2016年的数据建立面板模型,对对外贸易额、电子商务水平、GDP、贸易距离等变量进行实证分析,通过单位根检验判别数据是否平稳,利用Hausman检验、F检验等选择模型,进而构建面板分位数模型对数据进行实证分析。实证结果显示:贸易国的经济水平、电子商务发展水平对我国的对外贸易具有一定的促进作用,贸易距离对我国的对外贸易具有一定的阻碍作用,即贸易国的经济水平、电子商务水平越高,我国与贸易国的贸易额趋向越大;与贸易国之间的贸易距离越大,我国与贸易国之间的贸易额会趋向越小。然后将53个国家的贸易水平根据实证分析的分位数节点将其分为不同的贸易水平,便于对实证结果进行分析,由实证分析得出,总体来说贸易国电子商务发展水平的影响要大于贸易国经济发展水平、有效贸易距离的影响,且有效贸易距离的阻碍作用要大于贸易国经济发展水平的促进作用。最后,针对实证中的三个指标对我国对外贸易影响的优先级提出相应的建议;针对影响最大的贸易国电子商务发展水平,要在“一带一路”政策下,加强我国与贸易国在信息基础建设方面的合作,促进我国企业与各国积极合作。对于影响较大的有效贸易距离,主要是从缩小贸易距离角度入手,在“一带一路”政策潮流下,借助政府的力量,加快与贸易国在交通设施、运输机制、标准对接等基础设施的建设,进而减少对我国对外贸易的阻碍作用。为政府制定相关的法律法规提供参考,对跨境电商发展和促进国际贸易增长来说具有较强的现实价值和理论意义。对于影响我国外贸最小的因素:贸易国经济发展水平,由于要在众多“一带一路”沿线国家中进行选择,因此要优选与经济发展水平良好的国家之间进行贸易的往来,并关注在跨境电商中有潜力的市场。本文采用面板分位数回归研究跨境电商对我国对外贸易的影响,本文的创新点如下:(1)首先本文的国家数据是根据“一带一路”数据库最新更新的,研究的样本增多。(2)其次是指标的选择,分别使用有效贸易距离、网络就绪度来代表国家间的地理距离、电子商务发展水平,不仅考虑了贸易距离中价格的影响,也能用一个综合性的指标来衡量电子商务水平。(3)由于不同的国家在经济发展水平、电子商务水平以及有效贸易距离上有极大的不同,因而使得不同国家的贸易水平存在着差异性,面板分位数不仅刻画了对外贸易在不同水平下的分布特征,还能增加观测数据,同时给出不同贸易水平下的系数估计值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Effected by the 2008 financial crisis,the international trade environment has become more and more severe,it made the range of increasing slow and pressure growth,under this harsh situation,cross-border e-commerce in our country industry has shown a contrarian growth,and has maintained a fast-growing state,becoming a new channel for my country’s international trade growth.In addition,cross-border e-commerce as a new form of foreign trade application,it not only can make the cost in trade decrease,but also it can improve our companies competitive ability in some degree and push on the transitional of the traditional trade at as accelerated rate.Under the government’s "Internet+" and "The Belt and Road",how to promote the smooth development of cross-border e-commerce and promote the effective growth of my country’s foreign trade requires us to conduct in-depth analysis and research.Paper selected for the study of cross-border electricity supplier,Firstly,this article combs the definition of cross-border e-commerce,logistics,customs clearance and taxation issues in cross-border e-commerce,and the relationship between cross-border e-commerce and international trade.Analyze the mechanism of the impact of cross-border e-commerce on international trade from the perspective of technological innovation theory and trade cost theory,provide theoretical basis for the analysis of empirical results,and put forward corresponding suggestions.Secondly,analyze the development model and structure of cross-border e-commerce and the closeness of dealings with trading countries,and then summarize the achievements and shortcomings of cross-border e-commerce in different range.Then,selecting 53 counties which trade with china from 2007 years to 2016 years,and establish the quantile model of panel to analyze the relationships among the GDP,NRI,DIS,TRADE.Before analyze the panel data,in order to build effective model,we should carry out unit inspection to test whether the panel data is steady,besides,we should select model by Hausman test,F test and Fixed effect test.Empirical results,GDP and NRI of trading countries have positive effect on foreign trade in our country,DIS of trading countries has negative effect on foreign trade in our country.That is,the higher the economic level and e-commerce level of a trading country,the greater the trade volume between my country and the trading country;the farther the trade distance with the trading country,the smaller the trade volume between my country and the trading country.The trade levels of 53 countries are divided into different trade levels according to the quantile nodes of the empirical analysis,which is convenient for analyzing the empirical results.According to empirical analysis,the influence of the e-commerce development level of trading countries is greater than the impact of the economic development level,and the hindering effect of effective trade distance is greater than the promotion of trading countries economic development level.Finally,Make recommendations based on the importance of the three indicators in the empirical research on the impact of my country’s foreign trade:Aiming at the e-commerce development level of the most influential trading countries,under the "The Belt and Road " policy,we must strengthen cooperation between my country and trading countries in the construction of information infrastructure,and promote active cooperation between Chinese enterprises and other countries.The second is trade distance,we mainly start from the perspective of narrowing trade distance:under the trend of the "The Belt and Road " policy,with the help of the government,we will speed up the foundation of docking with trading countries in transportation facilities,transportation mechanisms,and standards.The construction of facilities,in turn,will reduce the hindrance of my country’s foreign trade,Provide reference for the government to formulate relevant laws and regulations,and have strong practical value and theoretical significance for the development of cross-border e-commerce and promote the growth of international trade.For the smallest factor that affects my country’s foreign trade:economic development level of trading countries,because there are many choices along the " The Belt and Road " Among the countries,preferentially trade with countries with good economic development levels,and pay attention to areas with potential in cross-border e-commerce laws.This paper uses panel quantile regression to study the impact of cross-border e-commerce on China’s foreign trade.The innovation of this paper is as follows:First,The Belt and Road database used in this paper is the latest database of national data and the number of research samples increased.The second is the choice of indicators.The effective distance and network readiness are used to represent the geographic distance between countries and the level of e-commerce development.Not only can it eliminate the impact of price in the trade distance,but also a comprehensive indicator can represent the level of e-commerce.Thirdly,because different countries have extremely different levels of economic development,e-commerce levels,and trade distances,there are differences in the trade levels of different countries.The panel quantile not only describe the distribution of foreign trade at different levels.Furthermore,it can also add observation data and give coefficient estimates under different trade levels.更多还原