【作者】 高磊；

【导师】 李华；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 税务（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 经济发展过程会伴随着经济周期性变化,经济周期性变化会影响企业的成本、营业收入、融资环境等因素,进而影响企业税收遵从。尤其当处于经济下行时期,企业会因盈利能力下滑而采取税收不遵从行为来缓解自身压力,进而降低税收遵从。通过借鉴国内外学者对经济周期影响企业税收遵从的研究,本文采用纳税信用评级数据对经济周期影响企业税收遵从情况进行分析,并探究经济周期通过影响融资约束进而影响企业税收遵从的中介机制。首先,本文对前人的研究进行整合和梳理,从理论层面分析了经济周期对企业税收遵从的影响;同时还分析了经济周期会通过影响融资约束这一中介变量进而影响企业税收遵从的路径,并提出相应假说。其次,利用相关数据对经济周期、融资约束以及企业税收遵从的典型化事实进行分析。结果显示,全国经济周期的走势与宏观经济走势基本一致,分地区经济周期所处阶段略有不同;融资约束受到经济周期的影响,在经济上行时期融资约束会减弱,在经济下行时期融资约束会加强;企业税收遵从受到经济周期的影响,在经济上行时期企业税收遵从会提高,在经济下行时期企业税收遵从会降低,分地区子样本、分产业子样本以及分所有权性质子样本之间也表现出差异。再次,鉴于本文的被解释变量是企业税收遵从,其衡量标准所使用的纳税信用评级数据为0、1变量,因而采用面板logit模型实证分析经济周期对企业税收遵从的影响,结果发现经济周期对企业税收遵从有显著的正向影响,具体表现为在经济上行时期企业税收遵从会提高,在经济下行时期企业税收遵从会降低;同时采用更换样本范围回归、更换经济周期计算方法等方式对基准回归结果进行稳健性检验。接下来,进一步分析经济周期对不同企业税收遵从影响的异质性。与中部地区企业相比,经济周期对东部地区和西部地区企业税收遵从存在显著正向影响;与属于第一产业的企业相比,经济周期对属于第二产业和第三产业的企业税收遵从存在显著正向影响;与国有企业相比,经济周期对非国有企业税收遵从存在显著正向影响。进一步采取逐步回归检验法以及KHB检验法检验融资约束对于经济周期影响企业税收遵从的中介效应,结果表明融资约束的中介作用显著,具体表现为在经济上行时期融资约束减弱进而提高企业税收遵从,在经济下行时期融资约束加强进而降低企业税收遵从。最后,对本文得出的各项结论进行总结和整理,并根据结论对如何提高企业在经济周期不同阶段的税收遵从提出相应政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The process of economic development has been accompanied by economic cyclical changes.Economic cyclical changes can affect the cost,operating income,financing environment and other factors,and then affect the enterprise tax compliance.Especially when the economy is in a downward period,enterprises will take tax non-compliance behavior due to declining profitability to ease their own pressure,and thus reduce tax compliance.By learning from the studies of domestic and foreign scholars on the economic cycle affecting the enterprise tax compliance,this thesis uses the tax credit rating data to analyze the impact of the economic cycle on the enterprise tax compliance,and explores the mediation mechanism that the economic cycle affects the enterprise tax compliance by affecting the financing constraints.Firstly,this thesis integrates and sorts out previous studies,analyzes the impact of the economic cycle on the enterprise tax compliance from the theoretical level;at the same time,analyzes the path that the economic cycle influences the financing constraints which is the mediation variable and then influences the enterprise tax compliance.Then put forward the corresponding hypotheses.Secondly,relevant data is used to analyze the typical fact that the economic cycle,the financing constraints and the enterprise tax compliance.The results show that the trend of the national economic cycle is basically consistent with that of macro economy,and the stages of the regional economic cycle are slightly different.The financing constraints are affected by the economic cycle,when the economy is in upturn,the financing constraints will decrease,when the economy is in downturn,the financing constraints will increase.The enterprise tax compliance is affected by the economic cycle.The enterprise tax compliance will increase when the economic cycle is in an upward period;the enterprise tax compliance will decrease when the economic cycle is in a downward period.There are also differences between regional and industrial and ownership properties sub-samples.Thirdly,given that the explained variable in this thesis is enterprise tax compliance and its measure uses the tax credit rating data of 0 and 1 variables,then this thesis uses the panel logit model empirically to analyze the impact of the economic cycle on the enterprise tax compliance,and the results find that the economic cycle has a significant positive impact on the enterprise tax compliance.Specifically,it is shown that the enterprise tax compliance will increase during the economic upward period,and the enterprise tax compliance will decrease during the economic downward period.At the same time,this thesis uses replacing sample range regression,replacing the economic cycle calculation and other methods to do the robust tests.Next,this thesis further analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of the economic cycle on the tax compliance for different enterprises.Compared with enterprises in central regions,the economic cycle has a significant positive impact on the enterprise tax compliance for enterprises in eastern and western regions.Compared with enterprises belonging to the primary industry,the economic cycle has a significant positive impact on the tax compliance for enterprises belonging to the secondary and tertiary industries.Compared with state-owned enterprises,the economic cycle has a significant positive impact on the enterprise tax compliance for non-state-owned enterprises.This thesis further takes the stepwise regression test and KHB test to test the financing constraints for the economic cycle affecting the enterprise tax compliance mediation effects,the result shows that the financing constraints have a significant mediation effect.Specifically,during the economic upward period the financing constraints will weaken and the enterprise tax compliance will improve,while during the economic downward period the financing constraints will improve and the enterprise tax compliance will reduce.Finally,the conclusions drawn above are summarized and sorted.And then put forward policy suggestions on how to improve the enterprise tax compliance in different economic cycle stages according to the conclusions.更多还原