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基于演化博弈的综合管廊可持续发展激励机制研究

Research on Incentive Mechanism of Sustainable Development of Utility Tunnel Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

【作者】 张玲;

【导师】 李明顺;

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2021, 硕士

【摘要】 综合管廊作为城市的“地下血脉”,能够有效避免管线布置过程中对道路进行反复开挖造成的“拉链马路”、“管线泄漏爆炸”等问题,实现对地下空间的充分开发利用,有利于城市的可持续发展。但目前我国综合管廊面临相关主体参与积极性低、盈利状况不佳等诸多问题,导致其推进十分困难。因此,本文拟根据我国管廊发展现状,建立相应的激励机制以推动综合管廊的健康持续发展。本文首先分析了我国综合管廊发展现状及面临的问题,对影响其实现可持续性发展的原因进行了总结;其次,界定了综合管廊主要相关利益主体为政府、社会资本方、管线单位三方,构建三方演化博弈模型并求解,通过雅克比矩阵对模型的稳定性进行分析得到不同情况下的演化稳定策略;然后,运用MATLAB软件对演化路径进行数值仿真,通过实际案例模拟,研究不同参数变化对各方策略选择的影响;最后,确立激励机制基本框架,并根据相关博弈分析结论针对性进行综合管廊可持续发展激励机制构建,同时提出相关保障措施以保证激励机制能够有效的发挥作用。本文运用演化博弈方法,对综合管廊发展过程中主要参与主体的行为进行相关分析,以案例关键参数的模拟仿真结果为基础,构建综合管廊可持续发展激励机制,对政府激励政策的设计具有一定的参考意义。

【Abstract】 As the "underground bloodline" of the city,the utility tunnel can effectively avoid the problems of "zipper road" and "pipeline leakage and explosion" caused by repeated excavation of roads in the pipeline layout process,and realize the full development and utilization of underground space,which is beneficial to sustainable development of the city.However,at present,China’s utility tunnel is facing many problems such as low enthusiasm for participation by relevant entities and poor profitability,making it very difficult to advance.Therefore,this article intends to establish a corresponding incentive mechanism to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the utility tunnel based on the current development of the utility tunnel in China.Firstly,this article analyzes the development status of China’s utility tunnel and the problems it faces,and summarizes the reasons that affect its sustainable development;Secondly,the main stakeholders of the utility tunnel are defined as the government,social capital,and pipeline units,the three-party evolutionary game model is constructed and solved,the stability of the model is analyzed through the Jacobian matrix to obtain the evolutionary stability strategy under different conditions;Then,use MATLAB software to simulate the evolution path numerically,and study the influence of different parameter changes on the strategy choices of various parties through actual case simulation;Finally,establish the basic framework of the incentive mechanism,and construct the incentive mechanism for the sustainable development of the utility tunnel based on the relevant game analysis conclusions,at the same time,relevant safeguard measures are proposed to ensure that the incentive mechanism can effectively function.This paper uses the evolutionary game method to analyze the behaviors of the main participants in the development process of the utility tunnel.Based on the simulation results of the key parameters of the examples,the sustainable development incentive mechanism of the utility tunnel is constructed,which has certain reference significance to the design of government incentive policy.

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