【作者】 陈萍；

【导师】 戴淑庚；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 金融学， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 金融是我国国民经济的支柱性产业,商业银行属于其中的核心企业,银行股也是我国A股市场关键构成。在商业银行进行兼并、资产重组等资本活动时,价值评估显得尤为重要。因此,商业银行的价值问题受到了众多学者和银行管理者的关注,如何正确评估商业银行价值成为了亟待解决的问题。2016年银行股IPO重启,这一年农商行成功上市的数量有四家,是很多银行股中最新出现的一类投资标的,促使农商行逐渐进入市场。基于此,本文选取农商行为研究对象,利用EVA法对样本银行的企业价值进行估计。本文首先对企业估值的国内外研究成果和EVA估值法相关理论进行概述,其次在投资价值研究的理论基础上,分析上市农商行投资价值的影响因素,收集样本银行的数据资料,计算出7家上市农商行各年的EVA值,并将其与市值、其他性质银行EVA值以及传统估值法进行对比分析,并对其未来股价进行预测,得出研究结论:(1)银行资产规模、存贷比率与经济增加值之间具有显著的正向关系,不良贷款率以及资本充足率与经济增加值之间具有显著的负向关系,而固定资产投资比例、非利息收入占比、成本收入比例及拨备比率与经济增加值之间不具有显著关系;(2)A股7家农商行的市值明显低于企业价值,而且从股价可以进一步验证以上结论;(3)以EVA模型为基础开展研究可知,上市农商行自身投资价值低于上市城商行自身投资价值;(4)EVA模型可对本文选取的样本农商行持续增长的自身价值进行较为有效的呈现,通过EVA模型合理有效的使用可实现银行自身企业价值较为合理有效的评估。最后,本文从四方面提出经营管理建议,其中主要涉及的有完善资产质量、确保资本充足率以及利息差、提升非利息收入占比等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Finance is the pillar industry of China’s national economy,among which commercial Banks are the core enterprises,and bank shares are also the key components of China’s A-share market.When commercial Banks carry out capital activities such as merger and asset reorganization,value evaluation is particularly important.Therefore,the value of commercial Banks has attracted the attention of many scholars and bank managers,and how to correctly evaluate the value of commercial Banks has become an urgent problem to be solved.In 2016,the IPO of bank stock was resumed.In this year,four rural commercial Banks successfully listed on the market,which is the latest investment target among many bank stocks and promotes the rural commercial Banks to gradually enter the market.Based on this,this paper selects the research object of rural business behavior and USES EVA method to estimate the enterprise value of sample Banks.This article first to the enterprise valuation of domestic and foreign research results and EVA valuation method related theory overview,second on the basis of the theory of investment value study,analysis the influence factors of the listed bank investment value,collect samples of data bank,calculate the 7 listed bank of EVA value from year to year,and with the nature of the market,other Banks EVA value and comparing the traditional valuation method,and forecast its future stock price,the research conclusion:(1)bank asset scale,loan ratio has significant positive relationship with economic value added,non-performing loans and capital adequacy ratio has significant negative relationship with economic value added,and the proportion of investment in fixed assets,non-interest income accounted for,the cost to income ratio and reserve ratio has no significant relationship with economic value added;(2)The market value of the seven A-share agricultural and commercial Banks is significantly lower than the enterprise value,and the above conclusions can be further verified from the stock price;(3)The research based on EVA model shows that the investment value of listed rural commercial Banks is lower than that of listed urban commercial Banks;(4)EVA model can effectively present the continuous growth of the value of the sample agricultural and commercial Banks selected in this paper.Reasonable and effective use of EVA model can achieve a more reasonable and effective evaluation of the bank’s own enterprise value.Finally,this paper puts forward Suggestions on operation and management from four aspects,including improving asset quality,ensuring capital adequacy ratio,interest and interest margins,and increasing the proportion of non-interest income.更多还原