【作者】 陈娟；

【导师】 吴慧萍；

【作者基本信息】 福建师范大学 ， 应用统计（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国人口老龄化现象日益严重,养老问题引发热议。如何提高老年人生活满意度,真正为更多的老年人谋福利,是当前热议的焦点。“养儿防老”是我国传统养老观念,但我国的现状是大多数老年人“未富先老、未老先病”,老人生活满意度受到家庭经济状况和代际亲疏关系的双重制约。因此,本文深入研究家庭经济状况和代际亲疏关系对老年人生活满意度的影响机制,从不同角度分析老年人生活满意度的影响因素,具有现实意义。本文采用2018年CFPS家庭跟踪调查数据,对老年人生活满意度的影响因素及家庭经济状况和代际亲疏关系对其产生的影响机制进行实证分析。首先,采用描述性统计分析方法初步探索生活满意度、家庭经济状况、代际亲疏关系、身体健康状况等变量的分布情况和相关关系,并采用熵值法对不同家庭的经济状况进行总体等级评价。其次,总结影响老人生活满意度的人口统计学、家庭经济状况、代际亲疏关系、身体健康状况、心理健康状况五个大类因素,共39个变量,利用Lasso回归进行特征选择,并建立决策树模型和随机森林分类模型比较测试效果,输出变量的重要性程度。最后,通过建立两个有调节的中介效应模型分别探讨:子代赡养能力在家庭经济状况对代际亲疏关系的影响中起到的中介作用,以及代际亲疏关系在家庭经济状况对生活满意度的影响中起到的中介作用。结果表明:(1)随机森林分类模型的效果优于决策树模型,随机森林变量重要性排序的结果与Lasso回归筛选变量的结果基本一致,相较于老人的身体健康因素,心理健康因素更容易影响老年人的主观生活满意度。(2)家庭经济状况越富裕,代际间的亲疏关系越亲密,老年人主观生活满意度评价越高,印证了代际亲疏关系的中介效应,且该效应受到子代赡养能力的正向调节。(3)家庭经济状况、代际亲疏关系和心理健康因素都是影响老年人生活满意度的关键指标。根据上述研究结论,本文从社会养老保障、子女赡养、以及老年人自身的角度出发,提出相关的政策建议,以期理性理解子辈和父辈的关系构筑,提升老年人的生活满意度,缓解人口老龄化带来的诸多压力。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasingly serious population aging in China,the issue of elderly care has aroused heated discussions.The focus is on how to improve the life satisfaction of the elderly and really help for more elderly welfare."Bringing up children and protecting against old age" is my country’s traditional concept of providing for the elderly.However,the current situation in China is that most elderly people "age before it gets rich,get sick before old age".Satisfaction will be restricted by the family’s economic status and intergenerational relationship.Therefore,this article deeply studies the influence mechanism of family economic status and intergenerational relationship on the life satisfaction of the elderly,and analyzes the influencing factors of the life satisfaction of the elderly from different angles.The relationships among elderly life satisfaction,family economic status and intergenerational relationship is studied using the CFPS family tracking survey data in2018.First,descriptive statistical analysis is conducted to initially explore the distribution and correlation of variables such as life satisfaction,family economic status,intergenerational ties,physical health status,etc.The entropy method is used to evaluate the overall level of economic status of different families.Second,five major factors affecting the life satisfaction of the elderly is summarized,including demographics,family economic status,intergenerational relationship,physical health,and mental health,with 39 variables in total.Lasso regression is used for feature selection and decision-making is established.The tree model and the random forest classification model are compared in terms of the test results and the relative significance assigned to selection variables.Finally,the relationships among family economic status,intergenerational relationship,offspring’s support ability and elderly life satisfaction are discussed through two moderated mediating effect models.The results show that:(1)the effect of the random forest classification model is better than that of the decision tree model.The results of importance ordering of random forest variables are basically consistent with those of Lasso regression screening variables.Compared to the physical health of the elderly,the mental health factors are more likely to affect the subjective life satisfaction of the elderly.(2)The wealthier the family’s economic status,the closer the intergenerational relationship,and the higher the subjective life satisfaction evaluation of the elderly,which confirms the mediating effect of the intergenerational relationship.And this effect is positively regulated by the support ability of the offspring.(3)Family economic status,intergenerational relationship and mental health factors are all key indicators that affect the life satisfaction of the elderly.Based on the above research conclusions,this article proposes relevant policy recommendations from the perspectives of social security,family,and the elderly themselves,in order to rationally understand the support relationship between offspring and parents,improve the life satisfaction of the elderly,and alleviate the pressure of aging population.更多还原