【作者】 徐锐；

【导师】 黄昌富；

【作者基本信息】 三峡大学 ， 企业管理， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 产能过剩一直是困扰经济健康增长的顽疾。自1997年中国首次提出产能过剩以来,随着经济的高增长,产能过剩就一直存在,其发生的频率和机理明显区别于其他国家。特别是在2008年世界金融经济危机以后,我国政府投入“4万亿”补贴救市,并曾多次出台政策进行调整。短期内产能过剩问题能够得到缓解,但总体看来效果甚微,甚至出现越调整越过剩的情况。我国当前的产能过剩问题不仅影响到制造行业的健康发展,还将成为产业结构调整和企业转型升级的障碍,分析产能过剩的原因,为化解产能过剩寻找出路意义重大。因此本文通过理论分析与实证研究相结合的方式探讨政府补贴对产能过剩的影响,并将研究结论与我国产能过剩的现实情况相结合,从上市公司层面提出对于产能过剩的一些看法,以期对规范政府补贴、引导上市公司化解产能过剩,实现转型升级有所帮助。本文在已有的文献和理论基础上提出实证假设,运用Stata12软件,以我国2012—2015年期间深沪A股制造业上市公司为样本,考察政府补贴与产能过剩、产能过剩与企业转型升级间的关系,并探讨政府补贴对产能过剩与企业转型升级间的调节效应。进一步对比研究了不同产权属性下,政府补贴、产能过剩与企业转型升级三者间的相互关系。最后,分析了制造业行业性产能过剩对制造业上市公司的产能过剩的影响。研究结果表明,产能过剩与企业转型升级之间存在正向相关关系,产能过剩对企业以路径依赖为基础的发展现状构成压力,对企业转型升级具有促进作用;政府补贴与企业产能过剩之间存在显著的正向相关关系,政府补贴会使企业产能过剩问题更加严重;政府补贴对产能过剩与企业转型升级之间的关系起到负向调节作用,对产能过剩企业进行补贴会影响到企业的转型升级发展。拓展性研究发现,相对于国有企业,非国有企业在产能过剩状态时获得政府补贴更不愿意进行创新投资以实现转型升级行为,相对于非国有企业而言,政府补贴强度对国有企业产能过剩的影响更为严重。行业性产能过剩是制造业上市公司出现产能过剩的一个重要影响因素。文章的整体结构如下:首先是选题背景及意义、相关文献归纳梳理及文献评述、研究内容与方法、创新之处;其次是理论分析与研究假设;再是样本选取与数据来源、变量定义与模型设计;实证研究部分包括描述性统计、多元回归分析及稳健性检验;然后是拓展性研究,探讨不同产权属性下的企业间在政府补贴对产能过剩及转型升级上的差异,并研究了行业性产能过剩对上市公司产能过剩的影响;最后得出结论并在此基础上提出相应的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Overcapacity has been a chronic problem that has plagued the healthy growth of the economy.Since China first proposed overcapacity in 1997,with the high economic growth,overcapacity has always existed,and the frequency and mechanism of its occurrence have been significantly different from other countries.Especially after the world financial and economic crisis in 2008,the Chinese government invested 4 trillion in subsidies to save the market,and has repeatedly introduced policies to adjust,and the problem of overcapacity can be alleviated in the short term,but overall it appears to have had little effect and even appeared more.Adjust the excess situation.The current overcapacity problem in China not only affects the healthy development of the manufacturing industry,but also becomes an obstacle to the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.It is of great significance to analyze the causes of overcapacity and find a way out for overcapacity.Therefore,this paper discusses the impact of government subsidies on overcapacity through a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research,and combines the research findings with the actual situation of overcapacity in China,and put forward some views on overcapacity from the perspective of listed companies,with a view to regulating Government subsidies,guiding listed companies to resolve excess production capacity,and help achieve transformation and upgrading.Based on the existing literatures and theories,this paper puts forward empirical hypotheses.Using Stata12 software,we use the listed companies of Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share manufacturing industry during 2012-2015 as a sample to inspect government subsidies and overcapacity,overcapacity and corporate transformation and upgrading.The relationship between the government subsidies and the moderating effect of overcapacity and corporate transformation and upgrading,and further studied and compared the relationship between government subsidies,overcapacity and enterprise transformation and upgrading under different property rights attributes.Finally,the analysis of manufacturing The influence of industrial overcapacity on the overcapacity of manufacturing listed companies.The research results show that there is a positive correlation between overcapacity and enterprise transformation and upgrading.Overcapacity exerts pressure on the development status of enterprises based on path dependence,which promotes the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.There is a significant positive correlation between government subsidies and excess production capacity of enterprises.Government subsidies will make the problem of overcapacity of enterprises more serious.Government subsidies play a negative role in regulating the relationship between overcapacity and corporate transformation and upgrading.Subsidizing enterprises with overcapacity will affect the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.Extensive studies have found that compared to state-owned enterprises,non-state-owned enterprises are more reluctant to innovate in order to achieve transformation and upgrading behaviors when they receive government subsidies in the state of overcapacity.Compared with non-state-owned enterprises,the intensity of government subsidies is overcapacity of state-owned enterprises.The impact is even more serious.Industry-wide overcapacity is an important factor in the overcapacity of manufacturing listed companies.The overall structure of the article is as follows: the first is the background and significance of topics,related literature review and summary,research content and methods,innovation;the secondly is theoretical analysis and research hypothesis;then sample selection and data sources,Variable definition and model design;empirical research part includes descriptive statistics,multivariate regression analysis and robustness test;then extended research,This paper probes into the differences between enterprises under different property rights in terms of government subsidies on overcapacity and transformation and upgrading,and studies the influence of industrial overcapacity on overcapacity of listed companies,and finally draws the conclusion and puts forward corresponding suggestions on this basis.更多还原