【作者】 李萍；

【导师】 李新春；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 教育装备与教育行业发展、教育质量提升和教育现代化进程息息相关。随着我国国民经济的发展和数字信息技术广泛应用,人们对于教育装备的数字化、智能化程度需求越来越高,同时国家也对教育装备加大了投入,这些需求促进了教育装备行业的不断更新和向前发展,也推动着以生产、销售、研发等为一体的教育装备产业不断迭代,由于教育过程的一致性和关联性,教育装备的发展也必须面对产业集群和项目化的问题,作为教育装备产业的载体—教育装备产业园项目建设发展对于我国教育装备产业及教育行业发展有着举足轻重的作用。江苏施河特色小镇教育装备产业园项目是以江苏淮安地区教育装备产业为依托的教育装备产业园项目,本文结合项目风险管理国内外基本理论和已有研究,全面了解园区产业发展和产业园项目发展概况,结合当前宏观环境和教育装备行业情况进行分析,基于全寿命周期项目管理视角对施河特色小镇教育装备产业园项目进行实地调查和SWOT分析。采用案例研究法、文献调查法、层次分析法、熵权法和基于可变模糊集理论的综合评价等模型和方法,通过数据收集、问卷调查等环节对施河特色小镇教育装备产业园项目开发运营风险进行了识别和评价。采用WBS-RBS工作-风险分解结构模型,确定4个一级指标和14个二级指标组成的风险评价指标体系;分别采用层次分析法计算主观权重,熵权法计算客观权重,最后加权平均得到组合权重。组合权重既能够充分利用产业园项目风险管理领域专家丰富经验和专业水平,又可以挖掘指标数据本身包含的信息。通过对施河特色小镇教育装备产业园项目开发运营风险的识别和评价,运用可变模糊识别模型,由级别特征值并参考综合评价等级集可以看出施河特色小镇教育装备产业园项目开发运营风险为1级偏2级,关键性指标园区规划布局风险、市政配套设施服务提供风险、运营成本超支风险得分情况对评价结果影响较大。根据评价模型计算结果对政府与政策风险、融资风险、建设与技术风险和运营与决策风险四个层面的综合风险评价结果进行了详细的分析,并结合项目实际开发运营情况,提出了有针对性的风险防范策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Educational equipment is closely related to the development of the education industry,the improvement of education quality,and the process of education modernization.With the development of China ’ s national economy and the widespread application of digital information technology,people ’ s demand for digitization and intelligence of educational equipment is increasing.At the same time,the country has also increased investment in educational equipment.These demands have promoted the continuous development of the educational equipment industry.Renewal and forward development also promote the continuous iteration of the educational equipment industry integrating production,sales,and research and development.Due to the consistency and relevance of the educational process,the development of educational equipment must also face the problems of industrial clusters and projectization.As the carrier of the education equipment industry,the construction and development of the Education Equipment Industrial Park project plays a pivotal role in the development of China’s education equipment industry and the education industry.Jiangsu Shihe Characteristic Town Educational Equipment Industrial Park Project is an educational equipment industrial park project based on the education equipment industry in Huai ’ an,Jiangsu.This article combines basic theories and existing research on project risk management at home and abroad to fully understand the industrial development of the park and the industrial park.The project development overview,combined with the current macro-environment and the education equipment industry situation to analyze,based on the life-cycle project management perspective,conduct on-site investigation and SWOT analysis of the Shihe Featured Town Educational Equipment Industrial Park project.Using case study method,literature investigation method,analytic hierarchy process,entropy weight method and comprehensive evaluation based on variable fuzzy set theory and other models and methods,through data collection,questionnaire survey and other links,the Shihe Characteristic Town Educational Equipment Industrial Park project The development and operation risks were identified and evaluated.Using the WBS-RBS work-risk decomposition structure model,determine the risk evaluation index system composed of 4 first-level indicators and 14 second-level indicators;respectively use the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the subjective weights,and the entropy weight method to calculate the appreciable weights,and finally get the weighted average Combination weight.The combination weight can not only make full use of the rich experience and professional level of experts in the field of industrial park project risk management,but also can mine the information contained in the indicator data itself.Through the identification and evaluation of the development and operation risks of the Shihe Featured Town Educational Equipment Industrial Park project,using the variable fuzzy recognition model,from the level feature value and referring to the comprehensive evaluation level set,it can be seen that the Shihe Featured Town Educational Equipment Industrial Park project The development and operation risk is level 1 to level 2.The key indicators of park planning and layout risk,municipal supporting facility service provision risk,and operating cost overrun risk score have a greater impact on the evaluation results.According to the calculation results of the evaluation model,the comprehensive risk evaluation results of the four levels of government and policy risk,financing risk,construction and technology risk,and operation and decision-making risk are analyzed in detail,and the actual development and operation conditions of the project are combined to propose targeted Risk prevention strategies.更多还原