【作者】 孙东；

【导师】 陈国华；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 在实际项目执行过程中,调度计划常常因为各种不确定事件而延误,并产生经济损失,因此在考虑不确定性的基础上进行项目调度非常必要,主动-反应项目调度方法就是一种重要的不确定项目调度方法,但该方法在应对不确定性方面存在性能瓶颈,如何提升主动-反应项目调度方法的性能是当前研究的重要方向。在一些项目中,需要在执行前确定资源在活动之间的流转情况,实际上,可以通过优化这种资源流转情况提升主动项目调度的鲁棒性,这个过程称为鲁棒资源分配,在当前主动-反应项目调度方法中,这种资源流转情况是随机生成的,鲁棒资源分配无疑为提升主动-反应项目调度方法的性能提供了契机,因此有必要在主动-反应项目调度问题中考虑鲁棒资源分配。同时,不同类型的项目,管理者关注的目标不同,在应对不确定性时,就需要统筹主动和反应两个阶段的投入,以达到管理者的特定目标,因此需要研究不同管理目标下的主动-反应项目调度问题。本文在考虑鲁棒资源分配的基础上,进行不同管理目标下的主动-反应项目调度问题研究。分别构建了(1)以最小化反应阶段调整成本为目标的主动-反应项目调度模型,在对当前鲁棒资源分配方法进行改进的基础上设计模型求解方法,进而探究了资源分配鲁棒性提升对反应调整成本目标的影响规律;(2)以最小化主动阶段和反应阶段的不确定性应对组合成本为目标的主动-反应项目调度权衡模型,并在模型中考虑了鲁棒资源分配和管理者的成本投入偏向特征,在此基础上对模型进行求解,指导不同成本投入偏向特征的管理者权衡主动计划和反应调整两个阶段的成本投入,达到总成本最优的目的;(3)考虑管理努力的主动-反应项目调度权衡模型,引入管理努力,作为一种从“控制”角度应对不确定性的策略对主动-反应项目调度权衡问题进行扩展,构建“计划-控制-反应”三阶段更加符合项目管理实际的应对不确定性的框架,并以最小化三阶段总成本为目标建立权衡模型,指导管理者在计划、控制和反应三者之间的成本投入决策,以获得最小总成本。本文将鲁棒资源分配引入主动-反应项目调度问题中,并引入管理努力对主动-反应项目调度问题进行了扩展。在理论上,丰富了主动-反应项目调度方法应对不确定性的决策维度;在实践上,一方面提升了主动-反应项目调度方法应对不确定性的性能,另一方面可以指导管理者在多种应对不确定性策略上的成本投入决策。本文得到的主要管理启示如下:·管理者在制定调度计划时要提升资源分配的鲁棒性,在进行资源分配时,不仅要考虑资源接收活动的不稳定性,还要考虑资源接收活动的后续全部活动的不稳定性。·偏向在反应调整阶段投入成本的管理者更应该重视提升资源分配的鲁棒性。·当项目不确定程度低或者资源分配的鲁棒性高时,管理者应该提高对主动计划阶段成本投入的敏感性。·当项目的不确定程度存在较大的下降空间且管理努力的有效性高时,管理者要以管理努力作为应对不确定性的主要手段;当项目的不确定程度下降空间不大时,管理者需要在主动计划或者反应调整方面多投入成本来应对不确定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the actual project execution process,the scheduling plan is often delayed due to various uncertain events,causing economic losses.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out project scheduling on the basis of considering the uncertainty.Proactive-reactive project scheduling is an important uncertainty project scheduling method,but this method has a performance bottleneck in dealing with uncertainty,how to improve the performance of the proactive-reactive project scheduling method is an important direction of current research.In some projects,it is necessary to determine the flow of resource between activities before execution.In fact,the robustness of proactive scheduling can be improved by optimizing the resource flow,this process is called robust resource allocation.In the current proactive-reactive project scheduling method,the resource flow is randomly generated,robust resource allocation undoubtedly provides an opportunity to improve the performance of the proactive-reactive project scheduling method.Therefore,it is necessary to consider robust resource allocation in the proactive-reactive project scheduling problem.At the same time,different types of projects have different objectives that managers pay attention to,when dealing with uncertainties,it is necessary to coordinate the investment in the two stages of proactive and reactive to achieve the specific objectives of the managers.Therefore,it is necessary to study the proactive-reactive project scheduling problem under different management objectives.Based on the consideration of robust resource allocation,this paper conducted research on proactive-reactive project scheduling problems under different management objectives.(1)A proactive-reactive project scheduling model with the objective of minimizing the adjustment cost of the reactive stage was constructed,we designed the model solution method based on the improvement of the current robust resource allocation method,then explored the influence of the improvement of resource allocation robustness on the cost objective of reactive adjustment;(2)A proactivereactive project scheduling trade-off model aimed at minimizing the combined cost of the proactive and reactive stage to deal with uncertainty was constructed,and in the model,robust resource allocation and the manager’s cost input bias feature were considered.On this basis,the model was solved,it can guide managers with different cost input biases to weigh the cost input of the two stages of proactive planning and reactive adjustment to achieve the objective of optimal total cost;(3)A proactivereactive project scheduling trade-off model considering management effort was constructed,we introduced management effort into the model,as a strategy to deal with uncertainty from the perspective of "control",it extended the proactive-reactive project scheduling trade-off problem and then we constructed the three-stage "proactive planning-controlling-reactive adjustment" framework that is more in line with the actual project management to deal with uncertainty.With the objective of minimizing the total cost of the three stages,a trade-off model was established to guide managers to make decisions about cost input between proactive planning,controlling and reactive adjustment to obtain the lowest total cost.This paper extends the proactive-reactive project scheduling problem by introducing robust resource allocation and management effort.In theory,it enriches the decision-making dimension of the proactive-reactive project scheduling method to deal with uncertainty;In practice,on the one hand,it improves the performance of the proactive-reactive project scheduling method to deal with uncertainty,and on the other hand,it can guide managers to make cost investment decisions in a variety of strategies to deal with uncertainty.The main management enlightenment obtained in this article is as follows:· When making a scheduling plan,managers should improve the robustness of resource allocation.When performing resource allocation,they should not only consider the instability of the resource receiving activity,but also the instability of all subsequent activities of the resource receiving activity.· Managers who prefer to invest costs in the reaction stage should pay more attention to improving the robustness of resource allocation.· When the degree of project uncertainty is low or the robustness of resource allocation is high,managers should increase their sensitivity to cost inputs in the proactive stage.· When the uncertainty of the project has a large room for decline and the effectiveness of management effort is high,the manager should use management effort as the main means to deal with the uncertainty;When the uncertainty of the project has not much room for decline,the manager need to invest more in proactive planning or reactive adjustment to deal with uncertainty.更多还原