【作者】 李洁；

【导师】 张秀敏；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 工商管理硕士（专业学位）， 2022， 硕士

【摘要】 财务预测管理在成熟的大中型企业的日常运营管理中起到越来越重要的作用,对于上市公司而言,财务预测会影响企业的股票价格,直接关系到股东的财富和利益。销售收入和销售利润的预测是财务预测的起点,对生产制造型企业来说,财务销售利润预测是财务预测的重点。A公司是一家历史悠久的全球性的高科技材料制造型公司,财务销售利润预测管理是其日常运营管理的重要组成部分。本文研究了财务预测管理的相关理论、IT系统模式和数据管理理论,以及国内外的有关文献,以A公司为案例,阐述了A公司现有的财务销售利润预测管理流程、内容、方法以及近期预测准确度下降的问题,发现了管理体系中导致预测准确度不能满足要求的主要原因,并提出了相应的优化方案,以及方案的实施管理和控制意见。优化预测管理的方案主要是设立适合A公司的销售利润预测管理目标,包括预测准确度的数据目标和预测流程的效率目标,让全员预测者共享预测准确度目标并纳入年度绩效考核;在预测方法上,分别对销售收入、生产成本和集成利润提出了相应的优化方案,如细化预测信息、建立模拟模型,运用历史数据挖掘的预测模型等,同时,建立共享数据库和数据模型,来加强预测数据的一致性,协调数据间的逻辑关系,提高财务销售利润预测的数据质量和工作效率。优化方案实施之后,销售收入和利润的预测偏差度从-9.3%和-4.5%降到了±5%和±2%以内,流程效率得以良好的改善。本文研究的制造型企业的财务销售利润预测管理优化方案从实际操作的层面展现了销售利润预测管理在企业管理中的运行方式,希望这些分享可以帮助其他制造型企业优化财务销售利润预测管理制度,提升企业的整体管理水平,也希望这些分享可以为我国在财务管理专业领域的研究和发展添砖加瓦。更多还原

【Abstract】 Managerial finance forecast plays more and more important role in the modern enterprises.For the quoted company,finance forecast result would cause share price fluctuation.It directly impacts the stockholders’ fortune and benefit.Sales and sales margin forecast is the start of finance forecast which is critical for manufacturing company.Company A is a long-lived global company who engages in high-technology material products manufacturing.Sales margin forecast is a fundamental process in the company’s daily operation management.After studying the theory and literature about finance forecasting,IT system model and data management,this article investigates company A’s current forecast process and methodology,makes the key problem statement,and then provides the improvement suggestion,as well implement and control programs.The key problem is company A’s sales and margin forecast accuracy decreases in the past periods.The main improvements are to set up the managerial forecast target including forecast accuracy target with clear data value and the process efficiency target,all forecasters to share the accuracy target and to include the target in their annual performance review;to optimize the forecast approach on sales,manufacturing cost and margin combination,for instance,by detailing forecast information input,creating simulation model and the forecast proposal model based on history data mining,etc.;at the same time,to build the shared data warehouse framework and data model for all forecast data alignment and the reasonability checking in order to improve the sales and margin forecast data quality and work efficiency.By implement of these actions,company A’s sales and sales margin forecast deviation decreases from-9.3% and-4.5%respectively to within ±5% and ±2% each,the whole forecast process efficiency is also improved.This article investigates the optimization actions on managerial finance for sales margin forecast in manufacturing company.It shows the detailed practice approach in the company’s daily operation.The suggestion and practice described in the article could be shared to other manufacturing companies as a reference to their forecast system optimization and then to improve the whole company management level.It also provides a study case in managerial finance forecast area in our country.更多还原