【作者】 王恺；

【导师】 孟庆春；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 企业管理， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着互联网技术的日益发展和互联网公司的不断创新,互联网服务种类越来越丰富,互联网产业也在国民经济结构中起到越来越重要的作用。近年来,依托于高速宽带覆盖率的不断提升,OTT电视服务异军突起,成长为互联网产业的一项支柱型产业。OTT电视服务的发展,不仅仅有利于满足人民精神文化的需求,提升人民的幸福感、获得感,更有利于与其相关的产业发展以及推动整个互联网产业技术革新和调整升级。OTT电视服务这一新兴产业,已经引发了全球性的关注,以Google、苹果、腾讯等互联网巨头为代表的企业不断加大OTT电视服务的投入,积极探索相关策略。在OTT电视服务不断发展的过程中,不可避免地将涉及这项服务的扩散问题。目前学术界对传统数字电视,尤其是CATV(Community Antenna Television,社区公共电视天线系统,即广电有线电视系统)的扩散规律已经有了较为全面和深入的研究,而对OTT电视这一相对新兴的电视服务方式的扩散规律的研究还较为有限。本文将从顾客价值链和价值维度等方面入手,首先研究影响用户使用OTT电视服务的顾客价值因素;对顾客价值因素进行分析,认为内部因素为OTT电视服务扩散的主要影响因素,可选取Mansfield模型进行研究,同时发现可从引入动态采用者潜量和网络口碑要素对模型进行改进,提高模型的预测精度;然后分别使用Mansfield模型以及引入动态采用者潜量和网络口碑要素的改进模型,通过对历史数据的拟合,对我国OTT电视服务的市场扩散规律进行实证研究。研究表明:作为一项技术和商业创新,OTT电视服务的扩散符合创新扩散模型的基本规律。Mansfield模型可以对OTT电视服务的扩散进行较好的说明。但由于在扩散过程中,采用者潜量受到电视用户数量的影响而成为一个动态的数量,且OTT电视服务兼具的互联网属性决定了它同时受到传统口碑和网络口碑的影响,因此在分析OTT电视服务扩散时,应将这两个要素考虑进来,改进Mansfield模型,从而一定程度上提高模型的预测精度。从产品生命周期理论的角度看,OTT电视服务在我国已经度过了导入期,进入加速发展的成长期。本文的主要创新点在于在传统Mansfield模型的基础上,分别引入动态采用者潜量和网络口碑要素对模型进行改进,使其更符合我国OTT电视服务发展的实际特点;并结合Mansfield模型数据与市场营销理论,提出OTT电视服务的针对性营销策略和产业发展建议,弥补此模型在应用领域的不足。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing development of Internet technology and the continuous innovation of Internet companies,the types of Internet services are becoming more and more abundant,and the Internet industry is also playing an increasingly important role in the structure of the national economy.In recent years,relying on the continuous improvement of high-speed broadband coverage,OTT TV services have sprung up and become a pillar industry of the Internet industry.The development of OTT TV services is not only conducive to meeting the spiritual and cultural needs of the people,improving people’s sense of happiness and gain,but also conducive to the development of related industries,as well as promoting the technological innovation,adjustment and upgrading of the entire Internet industry.The emerging industry of OTT TV services has attracted global attention.Companies represented by Internet giants such as Google,Apple,and Tencent continue to increase investment in OTT TV services and actively explore related strategies.In the continuous development of OTT TV services,the proliferation of this service will inevitably be involved.At present,the academic circles have conducted more comprehensive and in-depth research on the diffusion law of traditional digital TV,especially CATV(Community Antenna Television),while the research on the diffusion law of OTT TV,a relatively new TV service method,is still relatively limited.This article will start from the aspects of customer value chain and value dimension.Firstly,it studies the customer value factors that affect the customers’ use of OTT TV services;through the analysis of customer value factors,it is found that the internal factors are the main influencing factors of OTT TV service diffusion,and Mansfield model can be selected to study.At the same time,it is found that the model can be improved by introducing dynamic user potential and internet word-of-mouth elements to improve the prediction accuracy of the model;then,use the Mansfield model and the improved model with the introduction of dynamic adopter potential and internet word-of-mouth elements,through the fitting of historical data,this paper makes an empirical study on the market diffusion law of OTT TV service in China.The research shows that,as a technological and commercial innovation,the diffusion of OTT TV services conforms to the basic laws of the innovation diffusion model.The Mansfield model can provide a reasonable description of the diffusion of OTT TV services.However,in the process of the diffusion of OTT TV services,the potential of adopters is affected by the number of TV sets and becomes a dynamic number.Moreover,the Internet attributes of OTT TV services determine that it is simultaneously affected by traditional word-of-mouth and internet word-of-mouth.Therefore,when analyzing the diffusion of OTT TV service,these two elements should be taken into consideration and the Mansfield model should be modified to improve the prediction accuracy of the model to a certain extent.From the perspective of product life cycle theory,OTT TV services in China have passed the lead-in period and entered a period of accelerated development.The main innovation of this paper is to introduce dynamic amount of potential adopters and internet word-of-mouth elements to improve the model based on the traditional Mansfield model to make it more in line with the actual characteristics of my country’s OTT TV service development,and combined with Mansfield model data and marketing theory,put forward targeted marketing strategies and industry development suggestions for OTT TV services to make up for the shortcomings of this model in the application field.更多还原