【作者】 陈敏；

【导师】 刘红光；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2020， 硕士

【摘要】 农用地是人类生产生活的基础,而人口的增长、社会经济的发展对农用地的需求不断增大,与此同时,城市化建设带来的农地非农化问题也日益严重,农用地在不断收缩。人类对于农用地日益增长的需求,使得农用地在被过度开发及不合理利用,因此,农用地可持续利用面临着巨大挑战。为了解农用地利用现状,解决农用地利用供不应求、过度利用的问题,本文以中国31个省市的农用地为研究对象,基于生产性视角提出了农用地足迹的核算方法,结合改进三维生态足迹模型,测算各地区2009-2016年农用地足迹、农用地承载力以及农用地足迹深度,分析中国各地区2009-2016年农用地利用的现状,并基于生态足迹的角度,以农用地足迹深度衡量农用地利用的可持续性,对中国各地区农用地利用可持续性进行时空分析,并探究农用地利用可持续性的驱动因素,为我国农用地可持续利用提供对策。结果显示:(1)中国农用地足迹呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,而农用地承载力是连续平稳下降的,因此农用地足迹深度整体呈现持续增长的趋势。在空间上农用地足迹呈现出东中部地区较高、西部地区较低的格局,农用地承载力呈现出中西部大于东部地区的格局,农用地足迹深度呈现出东中部地区较高、西部地区较低的格局,从各生物生产性用地利用现状来看,耕地在农用地中的贡献率最大,水域的贡献率最小,各地类足迹深度表现为水域用地足迹深度>耕地足迹深度>草地足迹深度>林地足迹深度。(2)从中国农用地利用可持续性来看,2009至2016年中国农用地足迹深度整体呈现持续增长的趋势,从0.962上升至1.112,农用地利用可持续性由2009年的轻度可持续演变为2016年的轻度不可持续,农用地利用可持续性整体减弱。在空间上呈现出东中部地区农用地利用可持续性较弱,西部地区农用地利用可持续性较强的格局。从空间演变来看,新疆、黑龙江等10个地区的农用地利用可持续性由强演变为弱,只有浙江、北京两个地区的农用地利用可持续性在增强,其他省份的农用地利用可持续性等级没有变化。(3)农用地利用可持续性的驱动因素有人口、城市化率、农用地足迹强度、农用地面积、第二产业比重、城镇居民人均消费支出等。从各驱动因素对农用地利用可持续性影响程度的空间差异可知,人口对中国农用地利用可持续性的影响程度由西南向东北方向逐渐增大,城市化率对中国农用地利用可持续性的影响程度呈现出东部地区影响大,西部地区影响小的格局,农用地足迹强度对中国农用地利用可持续性的影响程度由西南地区向东北地区递减,农用地面积对中国农用地利用可持续性的影响程度由西北向东南递增。更多还原

【Abstract】 The agricultural land is the basis of production and living of the mankind.With the continuous growth of population and the consistent development of economy,the social demand for agricultural land increases.At the same time,urbanization brings the problem of non-agricultural land conversion,and agricultural land continues to shrink.Due to the increasing demand of human beings for agricultural land,the agricultural land is overexploited and used unreasonably,so the sustainable use of agricultural land is facing great challenge.In order to understand the current situation of agricultural land use and solve the problem of overutilization of agricultural land,this thesis takes the agricultural land of 31 provinces and cities in China as the research object,proposes calculation method of agricultural land footprint based on the perspective of product.Combining with improved three-dimensional footprint model,we measure the regional agricultural land footprint in 2009-2016,carrying capacity of agricultural land and agricultural land footprint depth,analyze the utilization situation of regional agricultural land from 2009 to 2016 in China.We take the agricultural land footprint depth as the metric of sustainability of agricultural land utilization based on the ecological footprint and make a spatial-temporal analysis of the sustainability of agricultural land utilization in various regions of China,further explore the driving factors of the sustainability of agricultural land utilization,and provide suggestions for the sustainability of agricultural land utilization in China.Results show that:(1)The Chinese agricultural footprint shows a downward trend after rising,the carrying capacity of agricultural land is falling smoothly,hence the footprint depth of agricultural land shows a trend of sustained growth as a whole,and carrying capacity of agricultural land presents the pattern of comparatively high in the central and eastern regions and low in western region in space,from the perspective of utilization situation of biological productive land,the contribution rate of cultivated land in of agricultural land is the largest,the contribution rate of water is the smallest.Relationship between the footprint depth of each kind of agricultural land is as follows:waters>cultivated land>grassland>forest land.(2)From the perspective of the sustainability of China’s agricultural land utilization,the footprint depth of China’s agricultural land has continued to increase from 2009 to 2016,rising from 0.962 to 1.112.The sustainability of China’s agricultural land utilization has evolved from mildly sustainable in 2009 to slightly unsustainable in 2016,and the sustainability of agricultural land utilization has weakened overall in China.In terms of spatial pattern,the sustainability of China’s agricultural land utilization shows a pattern that is weaker in the central and eastern regions and stronger in the western region.From the perspective of spatial evolution,the sustainability of agricultural land utilization in 10 regions,including Xinjiang and Heilongjiang,has evolved from strong to weak.Only the sustainability of agricultural land utilization in Zhejiang and Beijing has increased.The classification of agricultural land utilization sustainability in the other nine regions has not changed.(3)The driving factors for the sustainability of the agricultural land utilization include population,urbanization rate,agricultural land footprint intensity,area of agricultural land,proportion of secondary industry,per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents,etc.It can be known from the space differences between the influence on the sustainability of agricultural land utilization brought by each driving factor that the impact of population on the sustainability of agricultural land utilization in China is gradually increasing from southwest to northeast,the influence on the sustainability of agricultural land utilization brought by urbanization rate in China presents the situation of small in west region and big in east region in space,the influence on the sustainability of agricultural land utilization brought by agricultural land footprint intensity gradually decreases from southwest to northeast,and the influence on the sustainability of agricultural land utilization brought by the area of agricultural land gradually increases from northwest to southeast.更多还原