【作者】 王茜；

【导师】 孟梅；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 公共管理， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 草地是牧民赖以生存的基础,由于牲畜数量的快速增加使得草地资源不堪重负,为了解决草地资源与牲畜数量不平衡的问题,草畜平衡政策应运而生。新疆北疆地区草地资源逐年减少,限制了畜牧业的发展,对牧民的生活产生了不利影响,由于牧民生产技能的缺乏、劳动力不足等原因,出现了饲草料地流转行为。饲草料地流转对于草畜平衡政策的实施有一定的促进作用。该研究以饲草料地流转与草畜平衡存在显著性相关关系作为前提假设,基于新疆阿勒泰地区福海县4个畜牧大乡(镇)12个村的251户调查数据,通过问卷了解饲草料地流转现状、分布情况和存在的问题,了解草畜平衡基本情况,运用逐步回归模型选取对草畜平衡的影响因素进行分析,运用线性回归模型对饲草料地流转与草畜平衡两者进行论证,验证前文假设,进一步分析饲草料地流转的影响、草畜平衡的影响、饲草料地流转对草畜平衡的影响,最后根据分析结果提出相应对策建议。研究结果表明:(1)影响草畜平衡的因素主要有牧民家庭收入来源、饲草料地的收割次数、牲畜的经营方式、圈养时期的饲草料来源、如果饲草料足够是否卖出、如果饲草料不够是否买入、饲草料的主要来源。(2)饲草料地流转与草畜平衡呈正相关且其中牧民家庭收入的主要来源、饲草料地转入费、牧民家种植饲草料地不够是否转入、牧民对目前所拥有的饲草料地面积是否满意这几个自变量非常显著,牧民家的饲草料地转出费、饲草料地是否存在流转情况显著性次之。(3)由于牧民的种植水平、知识技能和思想意识的限制,不能充分对现有饲草料地进行合理利用,导致饲草料地产出率不高。(4)流转过程中,存在牧民对饲草料地转入意愿不高、流转形式单一、改变草地用途等一系列问题,因此,还需要不断完善饲草料地流转机制等结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grassland is the basis for herdsmen to survive.The rapid increase of livestock makes grassland resources unbearable.In order to solve the problem of imbalance between grassland resources and livestock quantity,the policy of balance between grassland and livestock emerged as the times require.The decrease of grassland resources in northern Xinjiang has restricted the development of animal husbandry and adversely affected the lives of herdsmen.Because of the lack of production skills and labor shortage of herdsmen,the transfer of forage land has appeared.The circulation of forage land has a certain promoting effect on the implementation of the balance policy between grass and livestock.Based on the data of 251 households in 12 villages of 4 livestock townships(towns)in Fuhai County,Altay Prefecture,Xinjiang,the current situation,distribution and existing problems of forage land circulation were investigated by questionnaires,and the basic situation of grassland-livestock balance was understood.The stepwise regression model was used to select the balance between grassland and livestock.The influencing factors of the relationship were analyzed,and the linear regression model was used to demonstrate the relationship between the forage land circulation and the balance of grass and livestock.The hypothesis was validated.The influence of the forage land circulation,the balance of grass and livestock,and the influence of the forage land circulation on the balance of grass and livestock were further analyzed.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward based on the analysis results.The results show that:(1)The main factors affecting the balance between grassland and livestock are the income source of herdsmen,the times of harvesting of forage land,the way of operation of livestock,the source of forage in captivity period,whether the forage is sold if the forage is enough,whether the forage is bought or not,and the main source of forage.(2)There is a positive correlation between the forage land transfer and the balance of grass and livestock,among which the main sources of herdsmen’s household income,the forage land transfer fee,whether the forage land planted by herdsmen is insufficient or not,whether the herdsmen are satisfied with the forage land area they currently own are very significant variables.The forage land transfer fee of herdsmen and whether the forage land transfer is significant are secondary.It is.(3)Due to the limitation of herdsmen’s planting level,knowledge,skills and ideology,the existing forage land can not be fully utilized reasonably,which leads to the low yield of forage land.(4)In the process of forage land transfer,there are a series of problems,such as the herdsmen’s low willingness to transfer forage land,the single form of transfer,the change of grassland use,and so on.So,the mechanism of forage land transfer needs to be constantly improved.更多还原