【作者】 刘芳；

【导师】 温磊；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 中国作为世界上二氧化碳排放量最多的国家,二氧化碳排放问题受到了越来越广泛的关注。众所周知,火电行业是我国二氧化碳排放的主要来源,且该行业二氧化碳的绝对排放量仍在逐年增加。因此,探讨该行业二氧化碳排放的主要驱动因素对于实现我国碳减排目标具有重要意义。本文基于2003-2017年中国各省域火电行业二氧化碳排放的截面数据,运用空间自相关分析探讨了我国30个省域二氧化碳排放的演变特征和空间分布模式,并对火电行业碳排放的关键驱动因素进行了空间异质性分析,挖掘出了影响火电行业二氧化碳排放增长的主要因素,从而因地制宜地提出针对性的碳减排政策建议。本文的研究内容主要包括三方面:(1)测算我国2003-2017年火电行业的二氧化碳排放量,并分别从全国、区域和省市层面着手,对其产生的二氧化碳排放总量和年增长率进行分析;(2)采用探索性空间数据分析方法对我国火电行业2003-2017年的二氧化碳排放量进行全局和局部空间自相关分析,以了解我国30个省份火电行业二氧化碳排放的空间特征;(3)引入考虑了地理位置作用的地理加权回归模型来揭示火电行业二氧化碳排放不同影响因素的空间异质性。实证结果表明:(1)我国火电行业二氧化碳排放量在2003-2017年总体呈先上升后平稳的趋势,并表现出了明显的地区差异;(2)我国各省市火电行业的二氧化碳排放不是随机分布的,存在正的空间聚集和依赖效应,且H-H、L-H和L-L类型占主导地位;(3)供电标准煤耗是影响火电行业二氧化碳排放的决定性因素。火电设备平均利用小时数和火电装机容量对于降低二氧化碳排放都有很大的潜能。然而,人均GDP和电源结构对火电行业二氧化碳排放的影响微乎其微。与此同时,这些因素表现出了明显的区域差异。这些发现为不同地区更好的实现减排目标提供了充分的参考和建设性的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the largest carbon dioxide（CO₂）emission country in the world,the problem of CO₂ emission has been paid more and more attention.It is well known that the thermal power industry is the major source of China’s CO₂ emissions,and its absolute emissions are still increasing year by year.Hence,it is of great significance to explore the primary driving factors of this industry’s CO₂ emission for realizing the goal of CO₂ reduction in China.Based on the cross-sectional data of CO₂ emissions in China’s thermal power industry from 2003 to 2017,the evolution characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of CO₂ emissions in China’s 30 provinces are explored by using spatial autocorrelation analysis.Meanwhile,through the spatial heterogeneity analysis of the key drivers of CO₂in this industry,the main factors affecting the growth of CO₂ emission are found out,and then put forward targeted carbon emission reduction policy suggestions according to local conditions.The research contents of this paper mainly include three aspects:（1）To calculate the CO₂ emission of China’s thermal power industry from 2003 to 2017,and analyze the total CO₂ emissions and annual growth rate from the national,regional,and provincial levels,respectively;（2）The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis of CO₂ emissions in China’s thermal power industry from 2003 to 2017 is carried out by using the exploratory spatial data analysis method,which can display the spatial characteristics of CO₂ emissions;（3）A geographically weighted regression model considering the effect of geographical location is introduced to reveal the spatial heterogeneity of different factors affecting CO₂emission in thermal power industry.The empirical results show that:（1）The CO₂ emission in China’s thermal power industry showed a trend of increasing first and then steady from 2003 to 2017,and represented obvious regional differences;（2）The CO₂ emission of thermal power industry in China’s 30 provinces are not randomly distributed,and there are positive spatial aggregation and dependence effects,and the H-H,L-H and L-L types are dominant;（3）The standard coal consumption of power supply is a decisive factor that affects the CO₂emission in thermal power industry.The average utilization hours of thermal power equipment and the installed capacity of thermal power plants have great potential for reducing CO₂ emissions.However,GDP per capita and power supply structure have little impact on CO₂ emissions from thermal power generation.At the same time,these factors show significant regional differences.These findings provide adequate reference and constructive policy recommendations for different regions to better achieve their emission reduction targets.更多还原