【作者】 刘阳；

【导师】 姚立杰；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 会计（专业学位）， 2021， 硕士

【摘要】 随着资本市场的改革创新,越来越多的企业将债券融资作为主要融资方式之一,不少企业在经济繁荣时期积极发债进行融资,助力企业多元化战略实行却也同时埋下了隐患。长期来看,忽视可持续增长率而盲目依赖举债扩张的高杠杆企业的资金链较为脆弱,经营风险较大,易发生债务违约事件。2018年末起我国债券市场涌现违约潮,许多金额巨大、影响广泛的债务违约事件发生在企业集团之中。企业集团的成员企业之间存在复杂的交易网络和担保关系,这让企业集团的债务违约风险与单一企业相比更为复杂和隐蔽。同时,企业集团的债务违约将依附于内部关系网络进一步传染,甚至蔓延至外部关联企业和金融机构,与单一企业的债务违约相比有着更为严重的和广泛的负面影响。基于此,本文的核心研究问题是:企业集团债务违约风险如何形成并传染的?由于DX集团是一家具有复杂关系网络并且实施激进多元化扩张战略的典型集团企业,并且曾是光电显示材料行业龙头企业,其核心子公司2019年底却忽然发生实质性违约,继而引发了集团债务违约的连锁反应,截至目前DX集团数十只债券仍处于违约状态,违约金额高达111亿元,影响广泛并引发多起诉讼,暴露了企业集团运营和风险管理的问题,因此选择DX集团作为案例研究的对象。基于DX集团这一案例,将核心问题划分为三个具体问题进一步分析。首先,集团债务违约风险如何形成?其次,集团内部债务风险是通过什么路径在集团内部传染扩散的?最后,如何实现多元化扩张过程中企业集团债务违约风险的有效防控?案例研究发现如下两方面主要结论。第一,在债务违约风险的形成方面,DX集团激进的外延式扩张战略埋下了债务违约风险形成的隐患;这一激进战略指导下形成的业务布局较为分散,传统主业和新并购模块业绩增长缺乏动力,加速了违约风险的形成;核心子公司债台高筑短期偿债压力激增,受限资产规模持续攀升,再融资空间严重压缩,受制于外部融资政策的不利变动,实质性债务违约事件最终首先由子公司爆发。第二,在债务违约风险的传染及路径方面,结合KMV模型和公司公告梳理出风险传染的时间轴,对债务违约风险传染的过程进行整合与定量分析;通过分析公司关联交易数据、关联担保数据和证监会的问询函信息,发现债务违约风险通过日常经营活动的关联交易在集团内部传染;债务违约风险沿着担保链向参与共同担保的成员方进一步扩散,并且违约事件在触发交叉违约条款之后将加速传染债务违约风险;在内部控制制度不够完善、流动性欠佳的情况下,通过集团财务公司运作的资金拆借加剧了债务违约风险在成员企业之间的传染。通过上述分析,本文试图为多元化扩张浪潮中的企业集团提供债务风险传染的防控建议,获得以下研究启示:首先,在债务违约风险传染的源头方面,密切监测和控制传染源头,合理运用债务违约风险评估模型强化企业债务风险预警意识,基于经验灵活修正模型,定期对高风险企业进行风险评估。其次,在债务违约风险传染途径方面,应当严控担保事项审批,减少依托担保链的违约风险传染;强化资产负债管理和信贷风险管控,减少依托资金拆借的风险传染;专注主业提升核心竞争力,合理调整业务布局抵御外部风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the reform and innovation of the capital market,more and more companies use bond financing as one of the main financing methods.Many companies actively issue bonds during the boom times,helping the implementation of corporate diversification strategies,but these decisions also created potential risk.In the long run,high-leverage companies that ignore sustainable growth rates and blindly rely on rising debt for expansion often suffer from fragile capital chains,high operating risks.At the end of 2018,there was a wave of debt default events in our country’s bond market.Based on data provided by the Wind database,it was found that many debt defaults event with huge amounts and wide-ranging effects occurred in business groups.The organizational form of business group is widespread in our society.However,there is a complicated transaction network and guarantee relationship between the member companies of a business group,which makes the debt default risk of a business group more complicated and concealed compared to a single enterprise.It also makes it easy for the debt default risk of the group company to be further spread between the parent and subsidiary companies through the group’s internal network,and even spread to the external associated companies and financial institutions,which will have more serious and widespread negative effects.In order to explore the debt default risk of business groups more deeply,this article explores the evolution process of the debt default risks formation and contagion in business group based on a case study of DX group.At the end of March 2021,a total of10 bonds had been materially defaulted,and the balance of defaulted bonds reached 11.1billion yuan.This has influenced many related companies and has triggered many lawsuits,also exposing problems in the operation and risk management of private enterprises.Based on this,the core question of this article is: How is the risk of debt default formed and contagious in business groups?Specifically,the core question will be broken into the following three dimensions for further analysis: First,how does the DX Group’s debt default risk form? Secondly,how did the debt default risk spread through the group? Finally,how to achieve effective prevention and control of debt default risks in business group in the process of diversified expansion?The case study found out that,in terms of the formation of debt default risks,DX Group’s aggressive extensional expansion strategy planted hidden dangers in the formation of debt default risks;the business layout formed under the guidance of this radical strategy is relatively dispersed,with both traditional business and new merged business lack of growth energy,which has accelerated the formation of default risks;the high debt of core subsidiaries has increased short-term debt repayment pressure,the scale of restricted assets has continued to rise,which squeezed the space for refinancing.Finally,subjected to adverse changes in external financing policies,substantial debt default events first broke out in the core subsidiary.In terms of the contagion path of debt default risk,the article combined the KMV model with company’s announcements to sort out the timeline of risk contagion;through analysis of company related party transaction data,related guarantee data and regulatory authority data,it was found that the debt default risk was contagious within the group through related transactions in daily business activities;the debt default risk further spreads along the guarantee chain to the members participating in the joint guarantee.Under the condition that the internal control system of the group finance company was not perfect,the contagion of debt default risk among member companies was accelerated through money lending.Through the above analysis,the article hopes to provide suggestions for prevention and control of debt default risk contagion for business groups which are in the wave of diversified expansion.更多还原